TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Center of circ is jogging WNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy doing loop west? Some models had that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy doing loop west? Some models had that. Yeah, Nam was one of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 [Kevin]Toss it[/Kevin] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah, Nam was one of them Sort of stalled and probably about to go NNE. They will wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomWH Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I have to tell ya, I am right on the water in west haven and this does not look good at all. My house faces ESE about 300 yards from the water. Luck we have about 75ft of elevation. The rest of the town near the water looks like it may be in some real trouble. Not sure why anyone would cheer at any model that depicts the destruction that may follow a storm like this. Be safe all. Keeping fingers crossed this isn't going to be what it appears it could be for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Anyone want to give a comparison to Noel in '07? Seems the wind may compare in velocity out here but veer more southerly which would suit me in regard to my boat. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy doing loop west? Some models had that. The NAM I think...I remember people mocking because of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy's seeing a good amount of dry air within her circulation had to add circulation to the end of that, sounded too dirty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy is supposed to look a little lousy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Jim Cantore thinks the whole Northeast should be shut down Monday and Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy is supposed to look a little lousy. After crossing terrain like Cuba and encountering shear, can't expect a good representation from Sandy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 this might be a possible good analog It was the nor'easter in 2006. the lowest pressure was 944 here is what it looked like before it hit Europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 nice to dee those cloud tops to the NNW of the center blooming in the last frame. guess that will wax and wane over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Here is an October historical track. As has been mentioned, never before has as track with a hook like this every happened. Crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 HWRF southern Jersey, Ukie has shifted south, also Jersey. NHC track is a tad too far south probably, Jersey now looks to be in the cross hairs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sort of stalled and probably about to go NNE. They will wobble. That's what it showed on a couple of them, They ended up heading off NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ukie shifted north not south. LI is ground zero if you blend models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy is supposed to look a little lousy. Yes you are right, It was modeled to look like crap right now before its starts intensification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah, even nervous this way with flooding as there are hints in the models of PRE development...but no comparison to your concerns... I have been rooting for the 00z GGEM output.. ..but 99.9% of the board would have epic deflation... I'm about 25 miles inland as the crow flies - just far enough that sustainers will be held a bit in check, but I worry about gusting hugely, which is a slam dunk given the bevvy of solutions. In a way, gusting is more destructive than a foliage system that is used to straining. Tree tops whipping wildly due to accelerations - a lot of interior Mass is fairly heavily wooded, with neighborhoods and cities adorned with groves of trees, tall oak, maple, and pines. Much of these are already seasonally denuded of leaf material, save for the Oaks. But, we've gone a week of calm winds and I suspect the first squall of wind and rain will fill the skies with brown oakies. That could alleviate some of the resistance for when the main LLJ(s) pass through. That said, above a certain wind speed it doesn't matter. A 65mph wind gust through a leafless forest is going to bring down a lot of timbre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ukie shifted north not south. LI is ground zero if you blend models No ukie is south and NJ is in the cross hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well before everyone blows a gasket, we still need some time here. An impact to ctrl NJ, while significant here...means a lot less than something near the ern Fork of LI. I'd say for now, NYC area is really under the gun. However, coastal areas to Maine really need to look out especially Monday Night and Tuesday morning. That's the high astro tides period - folks in Camp Ellis (SE corner of Saco) probably in for a rough time. Barring some huge change, all models seem to spare interior NNE from anything drastic, just 3 days of cool, gusty rain, enough to be thoroughly miserable but without causing major damage (except where the four-legged engineers remain ahead of the two legged ones.) That said, above a certain wind speed it doesn't matter. A 65mph wind gust through a leafless forest is going to bring down a lot of timbre. Very true. Saw it happen in NNJ Nov. 1950 and Dec. 1962. Ground was fairly well frozen (was -8 that morning, rose only to 5F) for the latter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I hear 18z Trop early cycle map shifted north, But don't have the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 No ukie is south and NJ is in the cross hairs. oh folks said Ukie was north. I still think American models are more right than wrong . Shift prob not done on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I hear 18z Trop early cycle map shifted north, But don't have the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 oh folks said Ukie was north. I still think American models are more right than wrong . Shift prob not done on Euro My guess is still ctrl NJ and NYC area..perhaps maybe NYC area now. Actually, a more NYC track would be worse LI sound on north. ctrl NJ track would be disaster for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bab5871 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Hi guys... been following this discussion for quite a while now, figured I'd actually create an account to ask a question... Suppose a long island/northern jersey hit... what does this bring for those of us up in the Catskill/Adirondack area of NY? Albany? etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 [image removed] Looks like it moved south in a closer cluster when I compare it to the 12z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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