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Sandy/EC Discussion Part IV


andyhb

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I have to tell ya, I am right on the water in west haven and this does not look good at all. My house faces ESE about 300 yards from the water. Luck we have about 75ft of elevation. The rest of the town near the water looks like it may be in some real trouble. Not sure why anyone would cheer at any model that depicts the destruction that may follow a storm like this. Be safe all.

Keeping fingers crossed this isn't going to be what it appears it could be for anyone.

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Yeah, even nervous this way with flooding as there are hints in the models of PRE development...but no comparison to your concerns...

I have been rooting for the 00z GGEM output.. Snowman.gif ..but 99.9% of the board would have epic deflation...

I'm about 25 miles inland as the crow flies - just far enough that sustainers will be held a bit in check, but I worry about gusting hugely, which is a slam dunk given the bevvy of solutions. In a way, gusting is more destructive than a foliage system that is used to straining. Tree tops whipping wildly due to accelerations -

a lot of interior Mass is fairly heavily wooded, with neighborhoods and cities adorned with groves of trees, tall oak, maple, and pines. Much of these are already seasonally denuded of leaf material, save for the Oaks. But, we've gone a week of calm winds and I suspect the first squall of wind and rain will fill the skies with brown oakies. That could alleviate some of the resistance for when the main LLJ(s) pass through.

That said, above a certain wind speed it doesn't matter. A 65mph wind gust through a leafless forest is going to bring down a lot of timbre.

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Well before everyone blows a gasket, we still need some time here. An impact to ctrl NJ, while significant here...means a lot less than something near the ern Fork of LI. I'd say for now, NYC area is really under the gun. However, coastal areas to Maine really need to look out especially Monday Night and Tuesday morning.

That's the high astro tides period - folks in Camp Ellis (SE corner of Saco) probably in for a rough time. Barring some huge change, all models seem to spare interior NNE from anything drastic, just 3 days of cool, gusty rain, enough to be thoroughly miserable but without causing major damage (except where the four-legged engineers remain ahead of the two legged ones.)

That said, above a certain wind speed it doesn't matter. A 65mph wind gust through a leafless forest is going to bring down a lot of timbre.

Very true. Saw it happen in NNJ Nov. 1950 and Dec. 1962. Ground was fairly well frozen (was -8 that morning, rose only to 5F) for the latter event.

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oh folks said Ukie was north. I still think American models are more right than wrong . Shift prob not done on Euro

My guess is still ctrl NJ and NYC area..perhaps maybe NYC area now. Actually, a more NYC track would be worse LI sound on north. ctrl NJ track would be disaster for NYC.

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