danstorm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Stunning Never seen anything like it... from a surge perspective, this is about the worst possible track for Coastal CT/Li/NYC/NJ... I mean, all that water getting piled up into LIS... NYC subways may flood again. Let's not forget, this is 3 days out ... but this is a terrifying set of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Until 0z This time tomorrow things will be narrowed down to a better science. The hunch inside of me thinks NYC track is more likely now. But keeping a level head I'm still going with New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Really incredible.....IMO, I'll buy ANYTHING at this point....I mean, hell, I'm forced to buy into every model showing something that we have no records for...so why start questioning any models now?!! I think there is a point where we just observe and enjoy the awesomeness of nature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Can someone give the EDT that the GFS and Euro come out? 12z GFS starts around 1130am and the Euro starts about 2pm. 00z runs are 12h later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow. Ah haha, ha - heh heh eh....oy....ooph. phuck - no desire to lose power. or, having tree limbs on my roof for that matter. I posted days ago that I was fearing a storm surge issue into the NYC and now it seems the consensus is hammering out a scenario that has all the earmarks of a historic flood scenario from storm surge. Even NCEP this morning mentioned that they were alerted to the Bite threat. It's the FEMA hook storm - for all intents and purposes, that 5 day ago appeal has come full circle - not that it ever left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This feels like Boxing Day all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 12z GFS starts around 1130am and the Euro starts about 2pm. 00z runs are 12h later. Pumped it is Friday night - will definitely be up for all runs tonight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Really incredible.....IMO, I'll buy ANYTHING at this point....I mean, hell, I'm forced to buy into every model showing something that we have no records for...so why start questioning any models now?!! I think there is a point where we just observe and enjoy the awesomeness of nature Euro ensembles should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Really incredible.....IMO, I'll buy ANYTHING at this point....I mean, hell, I'm forced to buy into every model showing something that we have no records for...so why start questioning any models now?!! I think there is a point where we just observe and enjoy the awesomeness of nature Yeah, I kind of wish I was in Liverpool for this one - kinda feeling like a thumb stuck out over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This time tomorrow things will be narrowed down to a better science. The hunch inside of me thinks NYC track is more likely now. But keeping a level head I'm still going with New Jersey. The gap has shortened today, I think Don S commented that the block was a little weaker on today's runs may be the reason for the further east solutions, I know the Euro initialized well east of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It does so because there is a hard phase at 84 hours still...initially they are doing the fujiwara dance with the euro much further east now like the gfs...then it just gets yanked back hard again because of the phasing, though further north of course...im not sure the euro will continue trending with a further north landfall at 00z, it might just be coming down to a battle of who is right/wrong in the timing/extent of phasing versus fujiwara...unless the track of sandy in the next 48 hrs continues to shift east. Seeing as you asked ... haha ... I think multi-lateral blend is going to pan out here. This is classic model convergence behavior, about at D3.5 or 4 for bigger events is pretty classic lead timing. Which basically means termporally collocating a storm with the potential to bring a massive storm surge right on top of an astro-tide. Folks, this cannot be underscored enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The gap has shortened today, I think Don S commented that the block was a little weaker on today's runs may be the reason for the further east solutions, I know the Euro initialized well east of 0z I'm happy to see it close. Really would be nice to gain an idea of effects. I'm sure people are dying to find out what happens in their backyard at this point. Doesn't matter much if it tracks into western LI or SNJ for me. Either way I see lots of rain and wind. Wind swath is massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This will make it easier to read -- http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html But N NJ just south of LI Awesome, thanks... you always have the best links! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Never seen anything like it... from a surge perspective, this is about the worst possible track for Coastal CT/Li/NYC/NJ... I mean, all that water getting piled up into LIS... NYC subways may flood again. Let's not forget, this is 3 days out ... but this is a terrifying set of runs. If the monster block causes a stall during the hard left hook into land it will be even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah, I kind of wish I was in Liverpool for this one - kinda feeling like a thumb stuck out over here Yeah, even nervous this way with flooding as there are hints in the models of PRE development...but no comparison to your concerns... I have been rooting for the 00z GGEM output.. ..but 99.9% of the board would have epic deflation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Keep this one thing in mind. I can count on 1 hand the number of times the NOGAPS has been right on anything in the last 7-10 years. The NOGAPS and Euro still agree for the most part and are essentially alone having adjusted towards the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah, even nervous this way with flooding as there are hints in the models of PRE development...but no comparison to your concerns... I have been rooting for the 00z GGEM output.. ..but 99.9% of the board would have epic deflation... Mass weenie suicide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Seeing as you asked ... haha ... I think multi-lateral blend is going to pan out here. This is classic model convergence behavior, about at D3.5 or 4 for bigger events is pretty classic lead timing. Which basically means termporally collocating a storm with the potential to bring a massive storm surge right on top of an astro-tide. Folks, this cannot be underscored enough! yeah man, and model convergence would be right into the new york bight...good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This will make it easier to read -- http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html But N NJ just south of LI Thanks--that's a great link. Eager to see how those wind estimates on that and GFS look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If we can get this to go in to RI I will be so pumped can you help us rebuild my mom's (and uncle's...he is just up the street) house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm happy to see it close. Really would be nice to gain an idea of effects. I'm sure people are dying to find out what happens in their backyard at this point. Doesn't matter much if it tracks into western LI or SNJ for me. Either way I see lots of rain and wind. Wind swath is massive. You sit in a spot that gets hit no matter what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Keep this one thing in mind. I can count on 1 hand the number of times the NOGAPS has been right on anything in the last 7-10 years. The NOGAPS and Euro still agree for the most part and are essentially alone having adjusted towards the others. don't forget about the ukie trending way SW. the euro ens are clearly the best and they've been hammering NJ for a center point of impact...I really can't argue with that. whether that scenario is correct or not, another story. the truth usually lies in the middle and for 0z models, that's a compromise between GFS and Euro operational runs. let's see what the euro ens mean does at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Can someone give the EDT that the GFS and Euro come out? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/ This provides times and status of various models... Doesn't have Euro but helpful for those that do not follow the weather on a daily basis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 can you help us rebuild my mom's (and uncle's...he is just up the street) house? If needed, I am sure I can make myself available.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So I never saw the GFS ensembles. Who has em? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If needed, I am sure I can make myself available.... jk... I always joke with her she should have never bought a house on the Bay...She will probably head to the same hotel in Warwick where the conf was held a few years ago. That's where she went for Irene, which was "meh" down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So I never saw the GFS ensembles. Who has em? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So I never saw the GFS ensembles. Who has em? The mean looked pretty close to the NNJ coastline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well before everyone blows a gasket, we still need some time here. An impact to ctrl NJ, while significant here...means a lot less than something near the ern Fork of LI. I'd say for now, NYC area is really under the gun. However, coastal areas to Maine really need to look out especially Monday Night and Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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