Colonel Badger Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What part of NJ? South, and then right over the Delaware Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If I lived in SNE I'd be getting pretty pumped now. I will trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That is a big initial trend on the Euro. I think its still probably giving it too hard of a hook to the left during the phase, but regardless, I think the consensus is definitely shifting things northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That could be catastrophic for the NYC metro... Whether it hooks over Long Island or under Long Island makes all the difference in the world, at least for areas not near the Sound. If it hooks over us like the GFS, we have a rainy (more rainy since we would be on the west/south side) but very windy day with some coastal flooding, but offshore wind. If it's under us, we have the nightmare scenario with winds switching to east and water piling into NY harbor, also probably more wind being on the north side. The LI Sound shores likely get it either way because NE winds look like a given here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Not as far North as GFS this run ! GFS looks to be too far east even early in the 12z run. JMHO. This is where we get into a trap of saying the euro folded some and therefore it continues to fold. Lots of times it doesn't and it makes a big adjustment then holds firm. CNJ up to western LI is my bet right now for landfall. GFS is probably too far east still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 LOL hooks into Cape May I think we can all agree that given the track that that won't happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I would guess too hard of a west hook imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 LOL hooks into Cape May While that's miles (no pun intended) better than what is had, that's still pretty far south. Clearly the coastal areas will get wacked, but I wonder how the windfield plays into the interiod and central NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro is trending but I think it may still be overplaying. Allows a bit of a retreat of the block but runs is wsw from 84 to 90? Don't think that happens. By NYC on euro verbatim. Yeah Jerry, That is a pretty drastic WSW movement, It got out further east but it hooked just as 0z did just further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Not sure I buy such a hard left hook. Only Smokin Joe Frazier had a left hook that hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow. you think the hook is overdone? That is some CRAZY blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 i still like a CNJ landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 mb at landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah Jerry, That is a pretty drastic WSW movement, It got out further east but it hooked just as 0z did just further north Actually a major hit for SNE as it travels west, large center, will not matter its north of the center that is going to get crushed. NYC surge going to be huge on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro with sub-940 pressure at 90hr. Wow... verbatim track, bye bye NJ boardwalks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Actually a major hit for SNE as it travels west, large center, will not matter its north of the center that is going to get crushed. NYC surge going to be huge on that run. It just seems overdone on the hook west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Out enjoying Central Park before it is flattened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I think this left hook is plausible, especially with that block kicking overhead. We'll see though. Wonder how much further N&E this can go.. South jersey to western LI cone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Out enjoying Central Park before it is flattened. Hopefully your apt is on a relatively high floor.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Actually a major hit for SNE as it travels west, large center, will not matter its north of the center that is going to get crushed. NYC surge going to be huge on that run. NYC/NJ/Coastal CT/RI/Cape & Islands ... it's academic who gets hit the worst (though it looks to be NJ/NYC/W LIS ... ample fetch, strong winds, astronomical high tides... this is a very dangerous situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NYC/NJ/Coastal CT/RI/Cape & Islands ... it's academic who gets hit the worst (though it looks to be NJ/NYC/W LIS ... ample fetch, strong winds, astronomical high tides... this is a very dangerous situation. Stunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 i still like a CNJ landfall ditto. at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Have people posted the GEM? Can't read those damn maps, but it looks like it's about Nantucket at 84 and heads west from their to NYC at 96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 ditto. at this point. Until 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Hopefully your apt is on a relatively high floor.... 6th floor. But face SE, so will probably take a lashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scituate44 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Can someone give the EDT that the GFS and Euro come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro is trending but I think it may still be overplaying. Allows a bit of a retreat of the block but runs is wsw from 84 to 90? Don't think that happens. By NYC on euro verbatim. It does so because there is a hard phase at 84 hours still...initially they are doing the fujiwara dance with the euro much further east now like the gfs...then it just gets yanked back hard again because of the phasing, though further north of course...im not sure the euro will continue trending with a further north landfall at 00z, it might just be coming down to a battle of who is right/wrong in the timing/extent of phasing versus fujiwara...unless the track of sandy in the next 48 hrs continues to shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Have to give the hook some credit even if its extreme. Extreme blocking can lead to extreme things. That being said, do I believe that EURO run hook at first glance? Hell no. However, I will say I think the GFS landfall on Long Island might be too far north. I do think initial landfall will be somewhere within the State of New Jersey. My very rich room mate has a house on the ocean in Lavallette. Needless to say they are boarding that place up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Have people posted the GEM? Can't read those damn maps, but it looks like it's about Nantucket at 84 and heads west from their to NYC at 96? This will make it easier to read -- http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html But N NJ just south of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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