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Sandy/EC Discussion Part IV


andyhb

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That could be catastrophic for the NYC metro...

Whether it hooks over Long Island or under Long Island makes all the difference in the world, at least for areas not near the Sound. If it hooks over us like the GFS, we have a rainy (more rainy since we would be on the west/south side) but very windy day with some coastal flooding, but offshore wind. If it's under us, we have the nightmare scenario with winds switching to east and water piling into NY harbor, also probably more wind being on the north side. The LI Sound shores likely get it either way because NE winds look like a given here.

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Not as far North as GFS this run !

GFS looks to be too far east even early in the 12z run. JMHO.

This is where we get into a trap of saying the euro folded some and therefore it continues to fold. Lots of times it doesn't and it makes a big adjustment then holds firm. CNJ up to western LI is my bet right now for landfall. GFS is probably too far east still.

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Euro is trending but I think it may still be overplaying. Allows a bit of a retreat of the block but runs is wsw from 84 to 90? Don't think that happens. By NYC on euro verbatim.

Yeah Jerry, That is a pretty drastic WSW movement, It got out further east but it hooked just as 0z did just further north

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Yeah Jerry, That is a pretty drastic WSW movement, It got out further east but it hooked just as 0z did just further north

Actually a major hit for SNE as it travels west, large center, will not matter its north of the center that is going to get crushed. NYC surge going to be huge on that run.

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Actually a major hit for SNE as it travels west, large center, will not matter its north of the center that is going to get crushed. NYC surge going to be huge on that run.

NYC/NJ/Coastal CT/RI/Cape & Islands ... it's academic who gets hit the worst (though it looks to be NJ/NYC/W LIS ... ample fetch, strong winds, astronomical high tides... this is a very dangerous situation.

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Euro is trending but I think it may still be overplaying. Allows a bit of a retreat of the block but runs is wsw from 84 to 90? Don't think that happens. By NYC on euro verbatim.

It does so because there is a hard phase at 84 hours still...initially they are doing the fujiwara dance with the euro much further east now like the gfs...then it just gets yanked back hard again because of the phasing, though further north of course...im not sure the euro will continue trending with a further north landfall at 00z, it might just be coming down to a battle of who is right/wrong in the timing/extent of phasing versus fujiwara...unless the track of sandy in the next 48 hrs continues to shift east.

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Have to give the hook some credit even if its extreme. Extreme blocking can lead to extreme things. That being said, do I believe that EURO run hook at first glance? Hell no. However, I will say I think the GFS landfall on Long Island might be too far north. I do think initial landfall will be somewhere within the State of New Jersey. My very rich room mate has a house on the ocean in Lavallette. Needless to say they are boarding that place up.

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