CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow. Phil gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 At this point, I would have thought the GFS would have gone toward the Euro solution-instead, it's moving away from it the other way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Here she comes, going toward ri? as in the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'll admit, I did not expect a further ne track on the GFS. I was wrong with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 LOL at anyone using NAM as support of GFS positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseystorm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Here comes the big hook like the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The GFS/NAM can waffle back and forth all they want and it really makes very little difference run to run. The Euro is arguably the superior model. It sniffed out the impact on the east coast first, and it has be steadfast with regards to the track. If this storm is going to track north of southern NJ, Euro support is required. $0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS tugs it right into the destructo position for all of SNE. Runs it straight in to west of Narragansett Bay skiring the south coast. ARE YOU KDDING ME??!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 EURO has barely moved in the past 10 runs or so, while GFS has been all over the place up and down the East Coast Yoda gets the hotdog today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 gfs 96-99...RI landfall? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wtf is the gfs doing?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS ala Tom Petty. runnin' down a dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The GFS/NAM can waffle back and forth all they want and it really makes very little difference run to run. The Euro is arguably the superior model. It sniffed out the impact on the east coast first, and it has be steadfast with regards to the track. If this storm is going to track north of southern NJ, Euro support is required. $0.2 ^^^ must be from north Jersey What's the pressure at landfall near 96h? I can't read that at all. Not that it really matters, I'm just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Phil was a good man. He'll be missed. Godspeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 gfs landfall near ack/chh Nice Knowing you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS ala Tom Petty. Refugee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wtf is the gfs doing?... Seems we can never go a model suite before a big storm without this question being asked. Bizarre setup verbatim...<100 hours and the ECM/GFS remain worlds apart. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Marine met forecasting rule when a TC transitions and deepens an XT the lowest pressure in its XT state is often close to its lowest pressure when it was TC. As with any rule there are exceptions but this is often a good starting point for how deep the PT/XT Sandy will be. Good info, thanks. Lowest obs I saw for Sandy was 954 at 03z yesterday, jsut before winds popped up to 105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS is a disaster for SNE, damn... 947.9 mb at 96 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 EURO has barely moved in the past 10 runs or so, while GFS has been all over the place up and down the East Coast Doesn't mean it's right. When I look at the Euro 12 and 15 hour projections from 0z, vs what I see with the visible satellite, NOAA fixes, and GFS/NAM/RGEM init positions I see the Euro too far west. I'm willing to bet it's coming NE this time on this run. I haven't looked closely until now, but I am pretty certain we don't have to wait for the 12z to realize it's probably run too far left and is going to adjust. Again JMHO. Throwing my hat into the ring, I expect a marked NE adjustment on this run of the Euro as it's init position adjusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Classic Euro Vs. GFS battle. This should be interesting. GFS does let sandy slip more NE, like some mets have said in here that it could do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The Ukie is well east of the Euro and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 ^^^ must be from north Jersey Another swing and a miss....Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow. What a battle. Will the Euro move north even a little bit? haha. Watch it go even further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm not so sure. If the EURO had support from any other "global" model aside of the NOGAPs I'd think it was on the right track. Not thinking it is. New GFS/NAM/RGEM are all damaging hits up into the upper mid atlantic/SNE. Euro wagons NE I think as it backs off on the uber pressure this run. JMHO. The NAM and RGEM seem pretty useless right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 ^^^ must be from north Jersey What's the pressure at landfall near 96h? I can't read that at all. Not that it really matters, I'm just curious. 947.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Can someone here overlay the Euro 12h and 15h positions with the GFS/GGEM/NAM inits? I think you guys will see what I mean then. The Euro was/is too far west the adjustment is finally coming this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 maybe not take the GFS verbatim, but it could be telling us that this will kick a bit further east than the other models are saying. HM mentioned this idea before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yoda gets the hotdog today. You would rather go with the GFS, which has had probably 6 diff landfall points from NJ to ME... or go with the EURO which has basically been in the same spot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow. Phil gone ozone mask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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