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Sandy/EC Discussion Part IV


andyhb

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The GFS/NAM can waffle back and forth all they want and it really makes very little difference run to run. The Euro is arguably the superior model. It sniffed out the impact on the east coast first, and it has be steadfast with regards to the track. If this storm is going to track north of southern NJ, Euro support is required.

$0.2

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The GFS/NAM can waffle back and forth all they want and it really makes very little difference run to run. The Euro is arguably the superior model. It sniffed out the impact on the east coast first, and it has be steadfast with regards to the track. If this storm is going to track north of southern NJ, Euro support is required.

$0.2

^^^ must be from north Jersey

What's the pressure at landfall near 96h? I can't read that at all. Not that it really matters, I'm just curious.

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Marine met forecasting rule when a TC transitions and deepens an XT the lowest pressure in its XT state is often close to its lowest pressure when it was TC. As with any rule there are exceptions but this is often a good starting point for how deep the PT/XT Sandy will be.

Good info, thanks. Lowest obs I saw for Sandy was 954 at 03z yesterday, jsut before winds popped up to 105.

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huh.png

EURO has barely moved in the past 10 runs or so, while GFS has been all over the place up and down the East Coast

Doesn't mean it's right. When I look at the Euro 12 and 15 hour projections from 0z, vs what I see with the visible satellite, NOAA fixes, and GFS/NAM/RGEM init positions I see the Euro too far west. I'm willing to bet it's coming NE this time on this run. I haven't looked closely until now, but I am pretty certain we don't have to wait for the 12z to realize it's probably run too far left and is going to adjust. Again JMHO. Throwing my hat into the ring, I expect a marked NE adjustment on this run of the Euro as it's init position adjusts.

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I'm not so sure. If the EURO had support from any other "global" model aside of the NOGAPs I'd think it was on the right track. Not thinking it is. New GFS/NAM/RGEM are all damaging hits up into the upper mid atlantic/SNE. Euro wagons NE I think as it backs off on the uber pressure this run. JMHO.

The NAM and RGEM seem pretty useless right now.

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