Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Agreed... hence my questions earlier: 1) How are GFS/Euro/GGEM verifications with respect to this, and how would an earlier transition impact track? ...that's the toughest question; if a weaker - unexpectedly so - system then is initialized, who knows what detrimental (negative perturbational) influence it will have on the eventual characteristics after merger - also, timing. For one, I am certain that a weaker Sandy would mean faster absorption. 2) NHC has a "Cat 1 hurricane" through landfall... what's the reasoning? Is this just done for public awareness? ...cannot speak for them, but, it does seem a bit like 'common sense' that one of their charges is the ability to diplomatically inform the general masses by heightening awareness, while simultaneously not blowing credibility should they be wrong. That said, a category 1 hurricane might just diplomatically mean the same thing as a powerful hybrid nor'easter - it's just that the integrated storm energy of the latter is an order of magnitude more powerful than the category 1 - but that doesn't matter to J.Q. Public - if their backyard gets a category 1 physical impact, this is a huge, huge score in favor of the NHC because it will have (as in the words of the great Dr. Vinkman), "...Saved the lives, of MILLIONs of registered voters." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Just a question here, sorry if it was asked before: Most mets will agree that the NAM most often sucks on TC systems but since this system will lose its pure tropical features over time and become more baroclinic do you start to look at its output as being in part of the mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 BTW, this storm as teleconnected looked possible with the WP pattern as progged. Yeah, a scenario that started smelling about 3 weeks ago actually - it would be ironic is some small perturbation occurred to take SNE out of the drama in the face of all that overwhelming majesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If the GFS doesn't budge, then things get mighty interesting, but I don't see how it won't go SW at least a little from 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 JCPL just released a memo to the state police in NJ to warn for power outages lasting from 7-10 days. Have a friend who works in there who passed me the news. Interesting to say the least. Do we think Sandy will regain convection around the low level circulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NAM tends to have a high bias on forecasting the LLJ. the NAM has a bias on everything. it's LLJ though is the same as just about all the products available for this region with that type of evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah, a scenario that started smelling about 3 weeks ago actually - it would be ironic is some small perturbation occurred to take SNE out of the drama in the face of all that overwhelming majesty. One of our guys compared the WP pattern correlations to what the euro and gfs showed. Euro won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Just a question here, sorry if it was asked before: Most mets will agree that the NAM most often sucks on TC systems but since this system will lose its pure tropical features over time and become more baroclinic do you start to look at its output as being in part of the mix? It's "utility" seems to increase when other models show a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Just a question here, sorry if it was asked before: Most mets will agree that the NAM most often sucks on TC systems but since this system will lose its pure tropical features over time and become more baroclinic do you start to look at its output as being in part of the mix? Fair enough question - While I am less that certain by a good margin how the NAM's intensity and placements are effected by its native handling of internal thermodynamics and fluid mechanics ... I was thinking ... or wondering really, since ALL the player are now finally into the initialization grid of the NAM, could it gain some 'trustability' overall. I have noted with winter storms in the past that the NAM's reputation for suckiness is way, way over done when the NAM sniffs out events that originate WITHIN its grid. Which makes some significant intuitive sense - if the NAM is dependent on relay of events outside its grid, the model is going to automatically inherit all the biases and/or flat out wrongness of the tool that's doing the relaying. OT, but one must wonder how the NAM would do if it was processed off a global sample. Interesting. It probably would take about 12 hours to process one run - hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What bothers me is that some other Boston Mets are claiming that Sandy will be coming in south of new england and less effects...ie some wind some rain etc..this is not good,,why because its giving the public a fake sense of calm or backing off like Sandy will really be no problem in that sense..so when Sandy comes in at a 945mb low just south of New England...Oh We made an error on telling the viewers that it was ok now...Some of these few Boston TV mets have to back off from this premise..its disturbing..and sort of irresponsible. as the saying goes...Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 i think 960 mb is more reasonable Also agree. The 930 progs were comicbook stuff. Has there ever been a sub-940 reading, land stations only, north of, say, ORF? Dim memory recalls 1938 having about 945 someplace on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What bothers me is that some other Boston Mets are claiming that Sandy will be coming in south of new england and less effects...ie some wind some rain etc..this is not good,,why because its giving the public a fake sense of calm or backing off like Sandy will really be no problem in that sense..so when Sandy comes in at a 945mb low just south of New England...Oh We made an error on telling the viewers that it was ok now...Some of these few Boston TV mets have to back off from this premise..its disturbing..and sort of irresponsible. as the saying goes...Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.. The consensus is south. The NHC track is south. What do you expect them to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 11 am NHC would be bad for NJ and NYC (although not as bad for NYC compared to NW heading) Way too early so say out of the woods there for a bad surge scenario. Anyone remember any other examples of a signicant storm, tropical or otherwise, moving just south of NJ perpedicular to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What bothers me is that some other Boston Mets are claiming that Sandy will be coming in south of new england and less effects...ie some wind some rain etc..this is not good,,why because its giving the public a fake sense of calm or backing off like Sandy will really be no problem in that sense..so when Sandy comes in at a 945mb low just south of New England...Oh We made an error on telling the viewers that it was ok now...Some of these few Boston TV mets have to back off from this premise..its disturbing..and sort of irresponsible. as the saying goes...Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.. Yeah I shook my head at some of the calls. Look at that gradient. There will be a ton of wind on the MA east coast. It would not be good if strongest winds came in with high tide. Not saying lock in 60+, but 40 to 50 at the least imo. Unless this goes into VA Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 VA just declared state of emergency FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The consensus is south. The NHC track is south. What do you expect them to do? I guess I could see where that would cause confusion as to the lack of winds and rain. People might call NBD and not really worry about things. Need to stress that they should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Also agree. The 930 progs were comicbook stuff. Has there ever been a sub-940 reading, land stations only, north of, say, ORF? Dim memory recalls 1938 having about 945 someplace on LI. Marine met forecasting rule when a TC transitions and deepens an XT the lowest pressure in its XT state is often close to its lowest pressure when it was TC. As with any rule there are exceptions but this is often a good starting point for how deep the PT/XT Sandy will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I can't help but feel a lot of folks in NYC (weenies excluded) are not going to take the threat from this storm seriously b/c they don't comprehend the potential magnitude of the storm surge. NAM or GFS scenarios materializing will be devastating for a heavily populated area. It doesn't seem like it's being taken that seriously down here so far. People think it's too late in general to get a hurricane because of the cold waters, and the media took the unfortunate step of comparing this to a Nor'easter at times, which people quickly laugh off. I fear that if the track is more in line with the hurricane models and Euro/ensembles, it would be devastating for many of us. The NAM track would still be bad but the South Shore/NJ coast would mostly have offshore winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 fwiw (maybe nothing) whether temporary or not...and i hate these kind of extrapolations...sandy certainly leaving the bahamas further east than what the GFDL had. and i have a hi-res NAM (4km) that took it even further WNW than that with the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 New GFS vs NAM...pick your poison folks...South track huh! Yeah...right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I actually think Sandy may look at it's best, even from a tropical stand point on Sunday and Monday. If you look at the 200mb wind as a proxy for wind shear, it's significantly lower than now. Also, the flow will be aligned at all levels while the divergence is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Did anyone notice this comment from the AKQ NWS Office - thought that was an interesting comment. In line with what some of you have been talking about above http://kamala.cod.ed...xus61.KAKQ.html AS FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...PER HPC DISCUSSION...THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (CANADIAN, ECMWF, AND GFS INCLUDED) HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TOWARDS OVER-DEEPENING TROPICAL CYCLONES AS THEY GAIN LATITUDE AND/OR UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE PAST COUPLE YEARS...CENTRAL PRESSURE WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS LOW AS EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. STILL...THE PRESENCE OF A 965-970 MB LOW WEST OF 70 W LONGITUDE ON MON WILL LEAD TO STORM FORCE WINDS ACRS THE AKQ COASTAL WATERS..AND POSSIBLY THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Like storms we have seen in the past, isn't just as likely this ticks back north as we get closer to Sunday? It's not a done for us here in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Look at those tropical models and tracks. Look at the SNE disaster ones. The key is the next 24 hours. All the ones closer to SNE go further offshore and take longer to hook back. The ones closer to the Delmarva do not go far to the northeast before being captured. Simple physics right? The upper level low will naturally capture something closer to the coast and swing it farther SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 New GFS vs NAM...pick your poison folks...South track huh! Yeah...right. You know that the GFS you posted was the 12z run from WED right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Did anyone notice this comment from the AKQ NWS Office - thought that was an interesting comment. In line with what some of you have been talking about above http://kamala.cod.ed...xus61.KAKQ.html AS FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...PER HPC DISCUSSION...THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (CANADIAN, ECMWF, AND GFS INCLUDED) HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TOWARDS OVER-DEEPENING TROPICAL CYCLONES AS THEY GAIN LATITUDE AND/OR UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE PAST COUPLE YEARS...CENTRAL PRESSURE WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS LOW AS EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. STILL...THE PRESENCE OF A 965-970 MB LOW WEST OF 70 W LONGITUDE ON MON WILL LEAD TO STORM FORCE WINDS ACRS THE AKQ COASTAL WATERS..AND POSSIBLY THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. Yeah I saw that, ultimately I wonder if the Euro is too far west..isbeing indicated by the super low - ridiculously so , pressure it's forecasting? If the processes in the modeling back off to end up with a 950-965mb low would it not tuck it as far west...I'd say that's very likely. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Think what you want here to the ones who Euro hug for a Southern track...The GFS and NAM are onto something..and with the more northern movement and all...Sandy is going to Beast all out over New England....My question is just when do they plan on starting to evacuate folks from the E Mass coastline...its pretty clear We have a disasterous event to unfold for New England with the latest runs..which by the way..had a very similar run late last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Shear is over 40 kt over Sandy right now, and it's not quite benefiting enough from baroclinic processes. Shear drops below 30 kt per the SHIPS as it turns to the NW off of HSE while it's benefiting much more baroclinicly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 My bad...the GFS run was from Wednesday night...none the less...last night's run had the same solutuon...to the other poster..thanks for mentioning that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Shear is over 40 kt over Sandy right now, and it's not quite benefiting enough from baroclinic processes. Shear drops below 30 kt per the SHIPS as it turns to the NW off of HSE while it's benefiting much more baroclinicly. Wow...I didn't realize it was that strong already. Explains the appearance. : GFS tucked NW a bit from the 0z run out to 48 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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