KEITH L.I Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The NAM is a ridiculous solution for SNE...but its just not a credible model at this time range and dealing with a tropical system. We'll see how the GFS comes in. not pure tropical..northern lat storm NAM is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 i wonder if she could phase sooner since she "looks" like more of a less pure tropical entity and may make it easier to cross H5 height and 1000-500 mb thicknesses easier (less resistance) to ULL trough later, i realize sandy is still warm core and will be for a while so i don't know if this makes the early phase speculation based on her appearance a moot point or not (if you follow that) lol scooter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Structure of Sandy dramatically changed since sun up… The mass of deep convection has entirely moved off the low level circulation. That kind of decoupling is never a good sign for TCs, and this is happening well enough prior to the interaction and transition timings, too – not sure what this will mean for the future of this show,but right now Sandy is an exposed llv swirl. Agreed... hence my questions earlier: 1) How are GFS/Euro/GGEM verifications with respect to this, and how would an earlier transition impact track? 2) NHC has a "Cat 1 hurricane" through landfall... what's the reasoning? Is this just done for public awareness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The NAM is a ridiculous solution for SNE...but its just not a credible model at this time range and dealing with a tropical system. We'll see how the GFS comes in. Will Verbatim how bad is the NAM? What would that deliver for surface winds say down here, up by you, over by Kev and Ryan? Just as a reference I know it's the NAM at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What is the NAM's typical error in miles at 84 hours?? I always thought it was most accurate at 48 hours and in. the entire north american domain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like Kevin ran the NAM from his basement. Took it out to the woodshed, and taught it a thing or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Will Verbatim how bad is the NAM? What would that deliver for surface winds say down here, up by you, over by Kev and Ryan? Just as a reference I know it's the NAM at 84 hours. It would be bad...for KPYM, it has 65 knot sustained winds at 250m above the surface...that is about 800 feet up. So that is a legit hurricane 800 feet up...over 90 knots 2500 feet up, so the gusts would be pretty extreme. It gives 50 knots sustained at the sfc for CHH and 75 knots just 230m up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 i wonder if she could phase sooner since she "looks" like more of a less pure tropical entity and may make it easier to cross H5 height and 1000-500 mb thicknesses easier (less resistance) to ULL trough later, i realize sandy is still warm core and will be for a while so i don't know if this makes the early phase speculation based on her appearance a moot point or not (if you follow that) lol scooter? I don't think her appearance is much different than modeled, so I don't think that it will phase any sooner than what all the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I guess sandy is done tracking NW as its now heading north at the 11:00 am advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It would be bad...for KPYM, it has 65 knot sustained winds at 250m above the surface...that is about 800 feet up. So that is a legit hurricane 800 feet up...over 90 knots 2500 feet up, so the gusts would be pretty extreme. It gives 50 knots sustained at the sfc for CHH and 75 knots just 230m up. that's such a weenie run. winds would then flip S and gust to like 70 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I guess sandy is done tracking NW as its now heading north at the 11:00 am advisory Poor snowNH, the NW trend died last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 well, excluding the possibility that these observed structural changes in Sandy won't lead to negative perturbations in the outcome of this thing ... every 00z run I have seen offers a different bull's eye for greatest impact. The 12z NAM is the most ferocious for SNE by the way, have a 957mb low situated better than ideal - if that's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The NAM is a ridiculous solution for SNE...but its just not a credible model at this time range and dealing with a tropical system. We'll see how the GFS comes in. Yes, but the overall look/structure of the storm with an exposed center is well shown in its wheelhouse (the next 24-or-so hours). 00z Euro looks like it showed a tighter, stronger storm at this time frame (disclaimer: I am absolute tripe at interpreting the Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It would be bad...for KPYM, it has 65 knot sustained winds at 250m above the surface...that is about 800 feet up. So that is a legit hurricane 800 feet up...over 90 knots 2500 feet up, so the gusts would be pretty extreme. It gives 50 knots sustained at the sfc for CHH and 75 knots just 230m up. I'm thinking this is a good time to remove the chairs and kayaks from the beach. I don't wish ill on anyone but I really hope this swings the other way or OTS. This is the last thing most people need. Amazing to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Should be interesting to see how the 12z (and 18z for that matter) come in because the vort max that finally captures Sandy is just about to enter the Pacific Northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I still cannot believe what I'm seeing. I'm just in awe. It seems like we keep getting into situations where we say "once in a lifetime" but it keeps happening with different types of events every several months...tornadoes, blizzards, etc etc. This is very true... although its been a "boring" stretch of weather, it seems that between these boring periods come these "once in a lifetime" storms like last October's snowstorm. I wonder what the next "once in a lifetime" storm will be, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Don't know what the difference would be but it seems to have turned north a lot sooner then forcasted AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 well, excluding the possibility that these observed structural changes in Sandy won't lead to negative perturbations in the outcome of this thing ... every 00z run I have seen offers a different bull's eye for greatest impact. The 12z NAM is the most ferocious for SNE by the way, have a 957mb low situated better than ideal - if that's possible. Or the worst position possible depending on how you look at it. For the Blizz's out there its definitely the best run yet. For property owners along the shore of New England, its probably as bad as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 and the Euro yesterday had this very close to Florida-that looks to not be the case now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The NAM would probably give gust to 45-50 even up here at Plymouth...just an insane run for all of SNE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Don't know what the difference would be but it seems to have turned north a lot sooner then forcasted AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. Odd, however, that the 11 AM track projection update still shows NNW motion through 8 PM Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 BTW, this storm as teleconnected looked possible with the WP pattern as progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 and the Euro yesterday had this very close to Florida-that looks to not be the case now... It won't get any closer now either on its north heading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Don't know what the difference would be but it seems to have turned north a lot sooner then forcasted AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. Key word in there is general.......could be that this is only a slight jog or that she has made the turn back to the north. Either way moving NNW or NNE is still a "General" northward motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The NAM is ridic up here too with that LLJ. I'm on my phone, but it wouldn't surprise me if, amongst other things, that it struggles with the mega NATL ridge on the extreme NE corner of its domain like it did almost all winter 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I can't help but feel a lot of folks in NYC (weenies excluded) are not going to take the threat from this storm seriously b/c they don't comprehend the potential magnitude of the storm surge. NAM or GFS scenarios materializing will be devastating for a heavily populated area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah I really have no problem with the GFS... can't comment on the UKie because I don't really use that one much. Just let the record show that Blizz thinks, "the American models are the way to go here." The UK is a decent model in certain weather situations. I find it does fairly well during the fall and spring especially with cut-offs along the ECUS. It can be a bit slow to come on board like the GFS (but it tends to come on board sooner than the GFS IMO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Initial ET surge maps starting to come out NLC with 4 feet, just a start of the predictions so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The NAM is ridic up here too with that LLJ. I'm on my phone, but it wouldn't surprise me if, amongst other things, that it struggles with the mega NATL ridge on the extreme NE corner of its domain like it did almost all winter 09-10. NAM tends to have a high bias on forecasting the LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Agreed... hence my questions earlier: 1) How are GFS/Euro/GGEM verifications with respect to this, and how would an earlier transition impact track? ...that's the toughest question; if a weaker - unexpectedly so - system then is initialized, who knows what detrimental (negative perturbational) influence it will have on the eventual characteristics after merger - also, timing. For one, I am certain that a weaker Sandy would mean faster absorption. 2) NHC has a "Cat 1 hurricane" through landfall... what's the reasoning? Is this just done for public awareness? ...cannot speak for them, but, it does seem a bit like 'common sense' that one of their charges is the ability to diplomatically inform the general masses by heightening awareness, while simultaneously not blowing credibility should they be wrong. That said, a category 1 hurricane might just diplomatically mean the same thing as a powerful hybrid nor'easter - it's just that the integrated storm energy of the latter is an order of magnitude more powerful than the category 1 - but that doesn't matter to J.Q. Public - if their backyard gets a category 1 physical impact, this is a huge, huge score in favor of the NHC because it will have (as in the words of the great Dr. Vinkman), "...Saved the lives, of MILLIONs of registered voters." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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