Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Pick the model that gives heaviest snow and most damage. This will be a long long winter. Just going by what all the mets are saying. NAM too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Can someone comment on timing of ET transition and model verification: looks like it started earlier than thought overnight... when did Euro vs. GGEM vs. GFS model this, and would this earlier transition favor the Euro's more south track? Would we expect any shifts in the 12Z suite if they incorporate the look of Sandy this morning? Also, NHC has this a "Cat 1 hurricane" through landfall > 48 hour away... is that realistic or just for the sake of public awareness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Just going by what all the mets are saying. NAM too I don't see how you can say go with this model suite or that model suite 4 days out. If one model happens to win, there is also luck involved. You just gotta give your best guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The GFS is really the 2nd best global model we have....Ukie perhaps is better, but that is a point of debate in terms of its usefulness for our area. It technically scores a bit higher, but it often is totally out to lunch on the big storms which is where we want models to perform their best. That said, Euro is still by far the best model so its hard not to put a lot of weight on it. Yeah I really have no problem with the GFS... can't comment on the UKie because I don't really use that one much. Just let the record show that Blizz thinks, "the American models are the way to go here." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navvet8992 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The GFS is really the 2nd best global model we have....Ukie perhaps is better, but that is a point of debate in terms of its usefulness for our area. It technically scores a bit higher, but it often is totally out to lunch on the big storms which is where we want models to perform their best. That said, Euro is still by far the best model so its hard not to put a lot of weight on it. Yep I wouldn't bet against euro. Consistent and most accurate period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 At this point the GFS is a nrn outlier, so that has to be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Does Tolland downslope on east winds? Blizz may actually downslope his way to hurricane wind speeds. From BTV...they are obviously very concerned with the west slope downslope wind scenario as wind speeds from 4,000ft+ summits fully mix to the surface in the eastern Champlain Valley and Burlington suburbs. AT THIS TIME...FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WHAT IS BEING WATCHED IS A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OF SANDY BECAUSE THAT WOULD SET UP A MUCH LARGER WIND THREAT...BOTH IN MAGNITUDE AND AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE AREA. PATTERN WOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THE APRIL 16TH 2007 WINDSTORM THAT BROUGHT DAMAGING WINDS TO A LARGE PART OF VERMONT. AGAIN...RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE OFFICIAL TRACK OF SANDY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AS OF 2AM...THE SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE SCENARIO IS THE ONE TO FOLLOW AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO BRING IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A MORE NORTHWARD LANDFALL OF SANDY. I know Andy has mentioned this for the west slope of the Berkshires and Taconics, too... I know everyone is focused on the wind by the coast but if this is anything like strong winter storm circulations, some of the highest wind speeds may be realized up and down the communities on the west side of the Spine. I bet if you list some gusts when this is done, the downslope region will have some toppers... they can get 60-90mph out of nor'easters just by downslope fully mixing to H85 wind speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah I really have no problem with the GFS... can't comment on the UKie because I don't really use that one much. Just let the record show that Blizz thinks, "the American models are the way to go here." Always favor the model that has the most extreme solution, lol. At this point its a very tough forecast. There are reasons you could think the GFS is more correct, but you could also pick some reasons why the Euro will be more correct. Its track record certainly has the upper hand. Though if we recall in Irene...the Euro was bringing the center into Philly at one point about 3 days out. That is something you could point to that makes the easterly track look like a better play...on the flip side, this is a different setup too with a full capture in the PJ and further west solutions could be favored if we believe this full capture will happen swiftly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 At this point the GFS is a nrn outlier, so that has to be considered. I guess you probably could use that same reasoning with the Euro being the southern one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I guess you probably could use that same reasoning with the Euro being the southern one? Well except that the trend has been closer to that solution. However GFS/GEM are more NE....and Ukie. GFS does have a good track record with tropical cyclones, so it's too early to dismiss any camp. Outliers can still be correct, it doesn't mean to dismiss them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I also think people have too many visions of 930 lows dancing in their heads. I find it very hard to believe it will get that deep. Lets set the bar at a reasonable level, despite what a few people wish to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I also think people have too many visions of 930 lows dancing in their heads. I find it very hard to believe it will get that deep. Lets set the bar at a reasonable level, despite what a few people wish to happen. i think 960 mb is more reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 i think 960 mb is more reasonable Yeah agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 To test my understanding, are the 2 main areas to focus on now: 1) The strength & position of the trough 2) The strength & interaction of Sandy with the ULL in the NA I haven't seen too many post around these lately... Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Is it just my eyes going bad or is that an eye like feature now on the SE corner of the convection per the latest IR loop? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/imagery/rb-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Is it just my eyes going bad or is that an eye like feature now on the SE corner of the convection per the latest IR loop? http://www.ssd.noaa....rb-animated.gif Nope. The center of circulation is south of that. Compare to vis loop: http://www.ssd.noaa....is-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Is it just my eyes going bad or is that an eye like feature now on the SE corner of the convection per the latest IR loop? http://www.ssd.noaa....rb-animated.gif Compare to the visual http://www.ssd.noaa....is-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yes I see it now, not sure what that little feature is then on the east side. In any event, it does look like convection is making an attempt again to wrap around the south side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yes I see it now, not sure what that little feature is then on the east side. In any event, it does look like convection is making an attempt again to wrap around the south side. I don't see anything of the sort yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 From what I'm reading it appears we should be using the US models for idea of LF. Scary but seems like they have best handle The king of flipity flop continues to strike fear into the hearts of all. Pick the model that gives heaviest snow and most damage. This will be a long long winter. lolz. I wouldn't trade Kev's "analysis" for anything, if just for the humor alone sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro is the best model but NOGAPS is one of the worst and they currently agree. Interesting. I know it's the NAM...but to me it's raising a bigger danger flag up towards LI this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro is the best model but NOGAPS is one of the worst and they currently agree. Interesting. I know it's the NAM...but to me it's raising a bigger danger flag up towards LI this run. Look at some of the hi res models including SREFs. Some have almost an occluded look or elongation of the isobars. It has to do with potential extra-tropical transition and occlusion...as if models are struggling how to handle it in a way. Although, not sure hi res is even worth looking at, but interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like Kevin ran the NAM from his basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro is the best model but NOGAPS is one of the worst and they currently agree. Interesting. I know it's the NAM...but to me it's raising a bigger danger flag up towards LI this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Look at some of the hi res models including SREFs. Some have almost an occluded look or elongation of the isobars. It has to do with potential extra-tropical transition and occlusion...as if models are struggling how to handle it in a way. Although, not sure hi res is even worth looking at, but interesting nonetheless. I still cannot believe what I'm seeing. I'm just in awe. It seems like we keep getting into situations where we say "once in a lifetime" but it keeps happening with different types of events every several months...tornadoes, blizzards, etc etc. Look at the NAM solution. This is a nightmare for everyone. I cannot imagine the damage that gets done in LI sound, along the south coast, and east facing beaches. What still makes me think the Euro is out to lunch is the NOGAPs agreement. When you the best and one of the worst on the same page, makes me wonder about both, JMHO. For giggles only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Structure of Sandy dramatically changed since sun up… The mass of deep convection has entirely moved off the low level circulation. That kind of decoupling is never a good sign for TCs, and this is happening well enough prior to the interaction and transition timings, too – not sure what this will mean for the future of this show,but right now Sandy is an exposed llv swirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's interesting that the NAM is not west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 1 down..4 to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The NAM is a ridiculous solution for SNE...but its just not a credible model at this time range and dealing with a tropical system. We'll see how the GFS comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The NAM is a ridiculous solution for SNE...but its just not a credible model at this time range and dealing with a tropical system. We'll see how the GFS comes in. not pure tropical..northern lat storm NAM is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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