weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 In 1938, it came in like a bullet with already built up sea heights. It managed to bring 8 feet of water 1 mile inland across southern New England and I don't have to tell you the numbers at the coast. This storm will have a 1992/1962 type of an effect but even those storms aren't analogous should the current NWP be correct. Perhaps some mets with more knowledge can chime in on storm surge/coastal flooding in this area. This is what I have in my "worst case scenario" for this storm. 10 feet in the Sound. Irene was ~5 and we saw what an ill-timed 5ft can do. TBH I'm quite concerned about NYC even if a more Euro-esque solution verifies. I believe this storm will also be occurring during a full moon so that will also be influencing the tides. What are the times of high tides? Any chance the strongest part of the storm interacts with high tide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Look, we're reasonable guys and we've shown that over the summer convective season (although I like to hype when I can!) but let's be real: NYC is in some real trouble if this storm doesn't track to the East. While the memory of Irene is firmly placed in the back of people's minds with the pathetic 6-12" surge at Battery, my worry is no one will take it seriously. I couldn't possibly speculate on the water that would pile up in NYC but it would be devastating. There has been a lot of research since 1992 about the possibility and I remember the simulations were terrifying if a major hurricane bolted into NYC, akin to 1938 but further West. Agreed with all of this. NYC is my biggest concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 FYI. N Star near south bay in Boston is on call as a whole. Scott Brown called in asking for Emergency Response Planning details. Teams preparing for response to outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Latest dropsonde from the hurricane hunters pretty meh for sfc winds. Like 55 knots... was in a max band with 77 knots at 925mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scituate44 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah still warm core but seems to becoming a bit more asymmetric. I'd argue it's more an ugly sheared look than actual ET... at least based on what I've seen from recon and the phase space diagrams... but yes... probably getting underway, albeit slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 fwiw, sandy is a little weaker than the euro's forecast for this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Don Sutherland The 8 am NHC advisory showed that Sandy decelerated further overnight. Sandy is now tracking NW at just 10 mph. Its slower forward motion is increasing the likelihood that it will be captured farther south. While the GFS/GFS ensembles can't be dismissed just yet and Sandy could still make landfall somewhere from the VA Capes to northern NJ, my guess is that the Delmarva to southern NJ offers the highest probability at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 fwiw, sandy is a little weaker than the euro's forecast for this time recon is showing a pressure around 971 mb and the euro shows below 968 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Slower could possibly mean further sw but models did slow it down at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Slower could possibly mean further sw but models did slow it down at this point. isn't the timing more crucial when it's offshore NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sticking with my wind forecast of 30-40G55 across Connecticut. Very manageable with many bare trees and those that aren't will be after this storm. At least it will look like November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Some of the media outlets, CNN, etc, keep talking about Hurricane Sandy merging with a winter storm... ? What is this winter storm they keep refrencing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Some of the media outlets, CNN, etc, keep talking about Hurricane Sandy merging with a winter storm... ? What is this winter storm they keep refrencing? Maybe they mean the Polar Jet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Maybe they mean the Polar Jet? Likely the dumbed down public version of the polar jet. Public would probably think the Polar Jet is a new type of passenger aircraft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Likely the dumbed down public version of the polar jet. Public would probably think the Polar Jet is a new type of passenger aircraft. Yeah that's what I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Maybe they mean the Polar Jet? Yea, I think you're right. Here's the text on the cnn site: "As Sandy turns landward next week, it may be met by a winter storm front crawling to the east out of U.S. heartland, according to the weather service. They could collide and join, producing an even larger, stronger storm." I really hate when they dumb stuff down like that! How is the public supposed to learn anything when all they're fed is pablum?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 isn't the timing more crucial when it's offshore NC? Well if it moves slower, the idea behind that is the issue of gaining latitude before a turn back NW. But like I said, it was forecasted to slow, so I think it seems "on track" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 12z tropical models even more SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 From what I'm reading it appears we should be using the US models for idea of LF. Scary but seems like they have best handle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Weaker storm now = easier/faster phase next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yea, I think you're right. Here's the text on the cnn site: "As Sandy turns landward next week, it may be met by a winter storm front crawling to the east out of U.S. heartland, according to the weather service. They could collide and join, producing an even larger, stronger storm." I really hate when they dumb stuff down like that! How is the public supposed to learn anything when all they're fed is pablum?! To bad it won't come close to snowing where I'm at at, pfft some "winter storm" CNN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 From what I'm reading it appears we should be using the US models for idea of LF. Scary but seems like they have best handle lol... I was wondering when you'd realize the GFS is going to have to be your model of choice. And a couple days ago it was "toss it because its the GFS." Ride the most damaging model home. With that said, my personal thought is that this will not make the turn like the ECMWF. I don't think the GFS is as bad a model as some on here say it is, so I'm leaning a bit more that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Please don't talk about the tropical models, post them or get banned! Actually no bans, but still, post em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy looks like an occluded low with a secondary..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 lol... I was wondering when you'd realize the GFS is going to have to be your model of choice. And a couple days ago it was "toss it because its the GFS." Ride the most damaging model home. With that said, my personal thought is that this will not make the turn like the ECMWF. I don't think the GFS is as bad a model as some on here say it is, so I'm leaning a bit more that way. The GFS is really the 2nd best global model we have....Ukie perhaps is better, but that is a point of debate in terms of its usefulness for our area. It technically scores a bit higher, but it often is totally out to lunch on the big storms which is where we want models to perform their best. That said, Euro is still by far the best model so its hard not to put a lot of weight on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 lol... I was wondering when you'd realize the GFS is going to have to be your model of choice. And a couple days ago it was "toss it because its the GFS." Ride the most damaging model home. With that said, my personal thought is that this will not make the turn like the ECMWF. I don't think the GFS is as bad a model as some on here say it is, so I'm leaning a bit more that way. Pick the model that gives heaviest snow and most damage. This will be a long long winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This is such a difficult forecasting situation. Someone said it earlier but boy do I envy the set up of the '38 Hurricane. Models are literally showcasing a LF from Maine to Virginia. God I hope the 12z runs don't hold firm. If they do let them uncertainty continue. I got to say I still believe LF will be within 50 miles of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 From what I'm reading it appears we should be using the US models for idea of LF. Scary but seems like they have best handle I thought you hated the GFS model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 are the tropical models much use at this point considering it's beginning ET transition (according to the hpc)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I thought you hated the GFS model? GFS. Worst model around, however Kevin has heard from accredited meteorological sources that it handles this particular situation perfectly. GFS and 12z BAMS ride em into the sunset! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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