forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 irishbri, I accidentally deleted your post on my mobile phone, sorry. the gfes mean is roughly NW into the central nj coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hah true ..I'm in no shape for that! I'm doing a 1600 ft climb on Saturday and that's more than enough for me. On 10/27/2012 at 5:25 AM, Wx4cast said: You didn't because you couldn't make the hike up the mountain I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 'Night folks. Looking forward to sleeping to, oh, 'bout noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 5:27 AM, Logan11 said: Hah true ..I'm in no shape for that! I'm doing a 16 ft climb on Saturday and that's more than enough for me. I think you'll be able to make that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Well night folks..long days await me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Has anyone noticed that all our big SNE hurricanes in the last 100 years all pretty much arrived during the day and not overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 5:26 AM, forkyfork said: irishbri, I accidentally deleted your post on my mobile phone, sorry. the gfes mean is roughly NW into the central nj coast I know it's bc I'm trolling from outside my PHL region ;-) Thanks for answering my questions. Just astonishing meteorology going on, trying to soak up as much as I can and contribute what I know. Good luck to all you up here and stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Anyone going to be around to discuss the euro run? I am staying up for it, but I certainly won't know how to judge the run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 5:29 AM, CT Rain said: Has anyone noticed that all our big SNE hurricanes in the last 100 years all pretty much arrived during the day and not overnight. I wasn't around 100 years ago so I wouldn't know,,,,,,,,,,,, but that is interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 5:29 AM, CT Rain said: Has anyone noticed that all our big SNE hurricanes in the last 100 years all pretty much arrived during the day and not overnight. Would the worst be overnight monday or tuesday you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 5:29 AM, CT Rain said: Has anyone noticed that all our big SNE hurricanes in the last 100 years all pretty much arrived during the day and not overnight. Jesus, Ryan - now I know I have a headache - thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 the 00z gfes mean actually has the exact same landfall spot as 18z, only 6 hours faster. the mean is also deeper, indicating more clustering. high tide is around 8 pm in the ny bight... the 00z gfes has a 0z landfall Monday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 5:29 AM, CT Rain said: Has anyone noticed that all our big SNE hurricanes in the last 100 years all pretty much arrived during the day and not overnight. You'll have to check pre-Gloria, but her, Bob & Irene were all day storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Interested to see ecmwf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 5:37 AM, StormSurge said: You'll have to check pre-Gloria, but her, Bob & Irene were all day storms. 1938 and Carol were afternoon storms. Not sure about 1944 or Donna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 4:35 AM, Wx4cast said: It not only will be huge but over at least 3 tide cycles. ALL of the back bays on the western end of the sound from CT thru Westchester and Bronx and Northern Queens Counties will flood. The Dec 1992 coastal caused flooding on the runway at LGA (the one that extends ENE out over LI Sound I also believe there were rocks from the surrounding jetty that got heaved up on to the runway). The East River Drive will truly become that. The PATH Tubes between NJ and Lower Manhattan will flood. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Tappan Zee and Whitestone Bridge closed. The latter sways like a mother. (Side note: It was built by the same company that built "Galloping Gertie" over the Tacoma Narrows back in the 1930s which collapsed). I've personally done a lot of research on the Whitestone Bridge and they've done a lot of retrofitting of it over the years. Although they might close it, I'm positive it won't have any issues as far as collapsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 5:40 AM, CT Rain said: 1938 and Carol were afternoon storms. Not sure about 1944 or Donna. Daytime in NYC so presumably similar in Boston. Worst for Donna from memory was 9-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The girl on twc sounds hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Lol Meyers is an idiot...said the models last night had a Cat 3/4 into NYC. Proceeds to say immediately after, "Well, they've backed off since then." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow... Euro is going to be fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 6:00 AM, CT Rain said: Wow... Euro is going to be fast. Details Hanrahan.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 One thing I've noticed... and I'm not sure if this is worth anything... but the models seem to be capturing the storm's current asymmetry well on modeled QPF fields. They all seem to want to wrap convection around the whole thing in the 36-48 hour window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah Euro is faster vs 12Z. Like GFS, closer by some to the coast also at least through 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Give us the details as you get it so I can get some sleep. Got a hike near Franconia Notch at 9:00 AM. On 10/27/2012 at 6:00 AM, CT Rain said: Wow... Euro is going to be fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hooks west further south so back to the Delmarva landfall solution... Euro continues to be furthest south of possible solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Still turns it into Delaware Bay at 78 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 6:09 AM, weathafella said: Still turns it into Delaware Bay at 78 hours. at 943mb none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The Euro says FU to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Out to 48 hours on Raleigh site, so should have a 72 hour picture soon. 2 sons with 'Fun Fair Positive Soccer' tomorrow. They don't keep score, Massachusetts style. Kids still know who won... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro, 943.6 mb at 72 hrs, looks to be Southern Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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