Amped Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 And Belmare landfall just after 72hrs. Seems reasonable, I expected the NAM to be a 200 mile outlier at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 2:48 AM, yoda said: We are all fighting over MSLP and location of landfall Heavy heavy rain in SW quadrant... wow A few milibars and a few miles south or north........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 2:16 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, those are what NHC must be really hanging their hat on. What a monster difference between those the the global models. Even the Euro was well north of that. Time to bail on TC based models perhaps? Save perhaps BAM based ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Woah.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Overall the NAM doesn't seem like a bad "end" solution landfall somewhere along the NNJ/CNJ coast up to NYC. I feel bad for a lot of you this is going to be horrendous. Hope it all works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 2:53 AM, messenger said: Overall the NAM doesn't seem like a bad "end" solution landfall somewhere along the NNJ/CNJ coast up to NYC. I feel bad for a lot of you this is going to be horrendous. Hope it all works out. NAM would be horrible for many on the Mass coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That is a CNJ LF, not NNJ. I'd say that's around Belmar/Long Branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 New NHC track: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 2:54 AM, CoastalWx said: NAM would be horrible for many on the Mass coast. Southern Coast or also the east coast of Mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 2:33 AM, ARLMAWX said: Would we be watching the tropical models for a incoming Blizzard? The relivence if Sandy stayed pure tropical I can see, but uncharted territory here. Was wondering this myself. Are the tropical models out of their wheelhouse so to speak once Sandy begins to transition to ET? Not trying to wishcast this thing north...seriously curious they should be given as much weight in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 2:54 AM, CoastalWx said: NAM would be horrible for many on the Mass coast. How so? I haven't looked that closely...looks like a pretty bad shot for everyone. I guess maybe I jumped the gun on being happy about not buying a generator today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just curious why aren't there TS watches up to DE at this point? There could definitely be TS conditions there within 48 hours and they often seem to push the 48 hour limit to give as much prep time as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NHC keeping it tropical through landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 2:56 AM, SnowMan said: Southern Coast or also the east coast of Mass? Both. I still think srn- ctrl NJ give or take is ground zero. I'm not sure LI is in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 2:54 AM, cg41386 said: That is a CNJ LF, not NNJ. I'd say that's around Belmar/Long Branch. Sandy Hook NJ LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 3:03 AM, CoastalWx said: Both. I still think srn- ctrl NJ give or take is ground zero. I'm not sure LI is in the cards. What type of waves we looking at on the east coast of Mass? If I wanted to take a short drive over to view them would it be worth it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Also, do you imagine Boston will be shut down on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 3:03 AM, irishbri74 said: NHC keeping it tropical through landfall? I think that was a decision announced yesterday IIRC. Regardless of whether this thing went ET or not, they were gonna keep it tropical to avoid any public confusion. I could have misunderstood though...I've been rather busy and skimming through a lot of these posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 3:02 AM, messenger said: How so? I haven't looked that closely...looks like a pretty bad shot for everyone. I guess maybe I jumped the gun on being happy about not buying a generator today? Because it brings gusts 60-80 from north to south. The saving grace is that I think worse winds don't come at high tide if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 3:02 AM, messenger said: How so? I haven't looked that closely...looks like a pretty bad shot for everyone. I guess maybe I jumped the gun on being happy about not buying a generator today? Even with landfall on the NJ coast, the NAM is showing ENE flow of 80-90 kt at 925 mb pounding into eastern MA. I assume that would be problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 3:05 AM, SnowMan said: What type of waves we looking at on the east coast of Mass? If I wanted to take a short drive over to view them would it be worth it? Probably 15-20' breakers moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 3:02 AM, messenger said: How so? I haven't looked that closely...looks like a pretty bad shot for everyone. I guess maybe I jumped the gun on being happy about not buying a generator today? NAM has 70 knots sustained at 800 feet over your head, lol. 90 knots at 900mb. The LLJ on the northeast side of this thing is hellecious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Dendrite of GFS verified, probably 45-50 gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 3:06 AM, CoastalWx said: Probably 15-20' breakers moving in. Nice! I saw waves that height years ago in So. Cal when a hurricane was kicking up the swell - it truly is amazing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Guys just remember the official NHC error at 72 hours is 124 miles. 124 miles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 3:03 AM, irishbri74 said: NHC keeping it tropical through landfall? Only because they want to keep the public informed and heightened awareness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 error at 84 hours is about 140 miles on about 600/650 track forecast from 2007 to 2011. So.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 My guess is 00z GFS ticks SW just a bit. But, 18z GFS is just nice as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 3:05 AM, SnowMan said: What type of waves we looking at on the east coast of Mass? If I wanted to take a short drive over to view them would it be worth it? you may be better served reading the AFD from Taunton http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 So what storm do you guys think this will resemble most closely on satellite by the time at landfall? I've got my own ideas, but I'd like to hear some others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.