forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:20 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah, looks like a good area. Windfield will be awesome up this way I think. from the LF area to pwm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:25 PM, forkyfork said: from the LF area to pwm Yeah with very little variation TBH. Look at the 925 winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:23 PM, snowman21 said: I'm on the Sound as well, though those surge maps say it will take a cat 3 or 4 to get to me. During Irene had water on three sides of me. Expect the usual spots to be flooded: South Water St right on the state line which is close to flooding just about every high tide on a normal day, Bruce Park, a good chunk of Old Greenwich, Cos Cob along the Mianus.. I expect all those areas to be under water come Monday/Tuesday as they were during Irene. Best of luck snowman, my issue is this. I am throwing out any category, what is the real sensible surge going to be, with that long fetch ne then east then se wind flow over many hours if not days, does a hurricane category surge really tell the tale? The water will not be able to escape the western sound and get piled up in each successive high tide cycle. Last press conference the GOV said to be ready for a 7 foot surge and that it would be as bad or worse than 92, I fear 7 feet might be a low guesstimate considering the angle and duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 According to recon 25 minutes ago, the pressure is down to 967, baroclinic processes have definately started with Sandy with pretty good pressure falls, and I must say this has gone into hybrid storm territory looking at the satellite images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:20 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah, looks like a good area. Windfield will be awesome up this way I think. Scoot - wind and surge outlook for Portland area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:28 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah with very little variation TBH. Look at the 925 winds. What do you think we could mix down for gusts here in the Lakes Region? I've been leaning 35-45mph max for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 How do we know when this thing transitions? I know the charts mentioned that it was going to stay warm core the entire way but is there any way of knowing that it's not going cold? Would recon data tell us that? Not to familiar with the phase charts that were posted the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:28 PM, hurricaneman said: According to recon 25 minutes ago, the pressure is down to 967, baroclinic processes have definately started with Sandy, and I must say this has gone into hybrid storm territory looking at the satellite images i mean it "looks" that way, makes me question wether she will phase earlier and eventually correct further south still, but she's still forecast to become a "hurricane' again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:09 PM, Happy Valley said: If the models hold serve with a C NJ to LI track come tomorrow then we all spend sunday and beyond in nowcast mode. The one guarentee is an adrenaline rush for weenies from Baltimore to Boston come sunday. More far reaching, I just spoke with my daughter at Lyndon State and she told me her weather geek friends are blowing up her Facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:31 PM, dendrite said: What do you think we could mix down for gusts here in the Lakes Region? I've been leaning 35-45mph max for most. I could see 60-70 or so for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Technically it will remain warm-core through landfall. Warm seclusion is still warm core. its just getting (in this case a major) boost from barocyclinic forces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:36 PM, CT Blizz said: I could see 60-70 or so for you You must be hugging the NoyesGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:28 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah with very little variation TBH. Look at the 925 winds. yes but wouldn't it be ALOT easier to get those 925 mb winds to the surface closer to the Lowest ressures i.e CNJ- NYC long island, as opposed to the 128 loop in mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Now that's eerie; to see the pressure drop so low (back down to 966!), with it looking like that. Just goes to show that the models are probably right about the baroclinic forcing that's still to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 966 extrapolated currently. what are some of the lower winter Low pressures we've had with nor'easters in the past decade, anyone? thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:28 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah with very little variation TBH. Look at the 925 winds. 18z gfs sfc winds. north of blm is in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Are winds gonna go from E/NE to E to E/se to S? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:40 PM, dendrite said: You must be hugging the NoyesGAPS. I'm not saying he's right... But I understand what he's saying/seeing. The American guidance could definitely be overdone but if its not...those winds at 900-950 mb are intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:47 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: I'm not saying he's right... But I understand what he's saying/seeing. The American guidance could definitely be overdone but if its not...those winds at 900-950 mb are intense. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I think the most pressing concern for most inland areas will be the rain. There could be massive amounts of flooding/basment flooding from the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:40 PM, dendrite said: You must be hugging the NoyesGAPS. Just spit my beer all over the keyboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:40 PM, Happy Valley said: Here's an ominous sign - I watched literally hundreds of Canadian Geese fly WNW while I was working outside this evening. They obviously know S is not the direction to head right now... Nice image - ha. Like in the Day After Tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:36 PM, CT Blizz said: I could see 60-70 or so for you I just can't see 60-70mph winds in Central NH. I'll got with 30-40mph perhaps a gust to 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:44 PM, forkyfork said: 18z gfs sfc winds. north of blm is in trouble water is going to be piling into lower bay for hours and hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The NOGAPS evolution would bring NYC down from storm surge - period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:55 PM, Typhoon Tip said: The NOGAPS evolution would bring NYC down from storm surge - period. Call me crazy, but I think NYC will still be here in a week from now. A few of those big buildings might even survive this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 john now i know i may get flack for this, but is there much of a shot a 950mb low tracking WNW into Central NJ with a 1032 high North of maine, will not be a devastating surge for NYC. i mean i am just sorta very concerned for them, but a bit skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Are those sustained winds or gusts on the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN If my prediction is correct, Southern NewEng will experience hurricane force gusts Monday/Mon Night, widespread outages Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:44 PM, cpick79 said: 966 extrapolated currently. what are some of the lower winter Low pressures we've had with nor'easters in the past decade, anyone? thank you BTW, 12z Euro for this time has a pressure of ~971ish: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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