New NWS Zones for Southeastern Pennsylvania

[Eskimo Joe]

The warning criteria (snow) for the eastern/lower zones of the split counties will be lowered to 4 inches. This is to match the rest of the Philly metro.

Thanks for the information.

[greg ralls]

Upper Montgomery County forever!

[famartin]

The warning criteria (snow) for the eastern/lower zones of the split counties will be lowered to 4 inches. This is to match the rest of the Philly metro.

Interesting... will Mercer in NJ also be lowered? They seem similar climo wise.

[phlwx]

The warning criteria (snow) for the eastern/lower zones of the split counties will be lowered to 4 inches. This is to match the rest of the Philly metro.

Mike, is there a precedent for splitting warning criteria within counties elsewhere?

[famartin]

Mike, is there a precedent for splitting warning criteria within counties elsewhere?

We have different criteria for different parts of our counties. Of course, that's elevation dependent.

[Isotherm]

I never understood why DC/BWI were in the 5" 12 hr snow warning criteria, yet PHL and SNJ are in the 4" snow warning criteria. DCA and BWI certainly don't average more snow than PHL.

[MGorse]

Well, we will try this again tomorrow afternoon.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

312 PM EST TUE DEC 4 2012

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE SPLITTING OF CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES OF

SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SIX SEPARATE ZONES IN OUR FORECAST

PRODUCTS, WHICH WAS SCHEDULED TO OCCUR WITH THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON

FORECAST PACKAGE, HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS CAUSES.

$$

[famartin]

Well, we will try this again tomorrow afternoon.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

312 PM EST TUE DEC 4 2012

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE SPLITTING OF CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES OF

SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SIX SEPARATE ZONES IN OUR FORECAST

PRODUCTS, WHICH WAS SCHEDULED TO OCCUR WITH THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON

FORECAST PACKAGE, HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS CAUSES.

$$

Would this go under the category of "Delayed but not denied"?

[Parsley]

Bummer, was already to party tonight too.

[phlwx]

Bummer, was already to party tonight too.

It's all good tonight, yo:

PAZ103-060915-

WESTERN MONTGOMERY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN

607 PM EST WED DEC 5 2012

TONIGHT

CLEAR. MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY

SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND

5 MPH...BECOMING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING

THEN BECOMING

PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

FRIDAY

MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT

CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN

THE LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

SATURDAY

MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS

IN THE MID 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT

CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY

CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE

MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT

CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 30S.

MONDAY

CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE

MID 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF

SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING

THEN BECOMING PARTLY

SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT

PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

WEDNESDAY

PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

[phlwx]

I never understood why DC/BWI were in the 5" 12 hr snow warning criteria, yet PHL and SNJ are in the 4" snow warning criteria. DCA and BWI certainly don't average more snow than PHL.

SNJ averages less than the three though (generally 12-18 across SNJ) if I remember correctly.

I agree with a warning criteria of 4" across DE and SNJ...I don't know why the lower halves of the suburban counties are getting lowered though. Would be curious to know the thinking behind it.

[famartin]

SNJ averages less than the three though (generally 12-18 across SNJ) if I remember correctly.

I agree with a warning criteria of 4" across DE and SNJ...I don't know why the lower halves of the suburban counties are getting lowered though. Would be curious to know the thinking behind it.

Well, Mike did say this...

The warning criteria (snow) for the eastern/lower zones of the split counties will be lowered to 4 inches. This is to match the rest of the Philly metro.

That's probably adequate justification.

Personally I kinda think 4" is a bit low especially given DC and Baltimore's 5". However, its probably more realistic to lower DC and Baltimore than it is to raise Philly.

[tombo82685]

SNJ averages less than the three though (generally 12-18 across SNJ) if I remember correctly.

I agree with a warning criteria of 4" across DE and SNJ...I don't know why the lower halves of the suburban counties are getting lowered though. Would be curious to know the thinking behind it.

I think its reasonable to lower the southern parts of the counties. Most of the time when philly doesn't get 4 inche or more kop, ambler or willow grove wont either. Once to collegeville and doylestown on north and west you could definitely see an uptick in snow amount do to the distance away from the city.

[MGorse]

It's all good tonight, yo:

Yeah, we are just about good to go. A few tweaks have to be made, but overall the new county splits are active.

SNJ averages less than the three though (generally 12-18 across SNJ) if I remember correctly.

I agree with a warning criteria of 4" across DE and SNJ...I don't know why the lower halves of the suburban counties are getting lowered though. Would be curious to know the thinking behind it.

The warning criteria for the lower/eastern portion of the split counties were changed to 4 inches to better match with the rest of the Philly metro area. Also, many times the snow/ice amounts are less (sometimes much less) as one goes east/southeast through these counties and closer to Philly. I remember several times in the past we had winter weather headlines up for the entire county when nearly half of it did not get (or was forecast to not get) much accumulating snow. The splitting will help with this, and the main idea behind the lowered snow warning criteria for the lower/eastern portions was to have it matching with the remainder of the Philly metro. I thought it did not make much sense when Philly and Delaware counties criteria is 4 while just jumping the border into Chester, Montgomery and Bucks and the criteria increases to 6. Also, elevation was factored in.

[phlwx]

The warning criteria for the lower/eastern portion of the split counties were changed to 4 inches to better match with the rest of the Philly metro area. Also, many times the snow/ice amounts are less (sometimes much less) as one goes east/southeast through these counties and closer to Philly. I remember several times in the past we had winter weather headlines up for the entire county when nearly half of it did not get (or was forecast to not get) much accumulating snow. The splitting will help with this, and the main idea behind the lowered snow warning criteria for the lower/eastern portions was to have it matching with the remainder of the Philly metro. I thought it did not make much sense when Philly and Delaware counties criteria is 4 while just jumping the border into Chester, Montgomery and Bucks and the criteria increases to 6. Also, elevation was factored in.

I agree with zone splits -- it's a good move and one that was needed.

There are quite a few parts of Chester and lower Montco that are pretty terrainy. The Main Line, Valley Forge Park in Chesco -- parts of those are 500' or so, most of Lower Montco away from the rivers/creeks has hills to it that can run up to 300-400' in elevation. Yeah, it's not as hilly as the upper half but matches the general piedmont mentality pretty well.

Where I disagree with the NWS is that I do think putting half the county in a lower criteria for warnings/advisories when their average snow isn't substantially different (a few inches on the year) will lead to some confusion, especially when we run into an inevitable 3-5" blanket snow (clipper) that warns half of the suburban counties and advisories the other half. It probably isn't a huge deal except that the borderline events are going to have confusion and probably more calls to media, you, others wondering why the forecasts are consistent but the warnings are not.

Not that my opinion matters tremendously, but SE PA (the whole of all five counties) should probably be consistent across the board on warning criteria snowfall. 5" would probably compromise realistically (you could include Central NJ --- Monmouth, Mercer, MIddlesex Counties) as it would provide a better bridge from 4 to 6 without having a two inch jump. If it's ever looked at again, I would hope a finessing like that is considered.

[phlwx]

I think its reasonable to lower the southern parts of the counties. Most of the time when philly doesn't get 4 inche or more kop, ambler or willow grove wont either. Once to collegeville and doylestown on north and west you could definitely see an uptick in snow amount do to the distance away from the city.

But is 4" really something that is warning criteria in an area that historically been 6?

[tombo82685]

But is 4" really something that is warning criteria in an area that historically been 6?

i bet 3/4 of people don't even know how much snow equates to a warning for them. that may be higher.

[famartin]

i bet 3/4 of people don't even know how much snow equates to a warning for them. that may be higher.

I'd suggest it more like 90-95%. Possibly even more than that. I'd guess that 50-75% of people don't know the difference between a winter weather advisory and a winter storm warning.

But these kinds of semantics are geared more towards the NWS's more technical customers: Emergency managers, transportation officials, etc. Not so much the general public.

[phlwx]

i bet 3/4 of people don't even know how much snow equates to a warning for them. that may be higher.

agreed...probably closer to 90

[MGorse]

I agree with zone splits -- it's a good move and one that was needed.

There are quite a few parts of Chester and lower Montco that are pretty terrainy. The Main Line, Valley Forge Park in Chesco -- parts of those are 500' or so, most of Lower Montco away from the rivers/creeks has hills to it that can run up to 300-400' in elevation. Yeah, it's not as hilly as the upper half but matches the general piedmont mentality pretty well.

Where I disagree with the NWS is that I do think putting half the county in a lower criteria for warnings/advisories when their average snow isn't substantially different (a few inches on the year) will lead to some confusion, especially when we run into an inevitable 3-5" blanket snow (clipper) that warns half of the suburban counties and advisories the other half. It probably isn't a huge deal except that the borderline events are going to have confusion and probably more calls to media, you, others wondering why the forecasts are consistent but the warnings are not.

Not that my opinion matters tremendously, but SE PA (the whole of all five counties) should probably be consistent across the board on warning criteria snowfall. 5" would probably compromise realistically (you could include Central NJ --- Monmouth, Mercer, MIddlesex Counties) as it would provide a better bridge from 4 to 6 without having a two inch jump. If it's ever looked at again, I would hope a finessing like that is considered.

I have learned that whatever we do, not everyone will be happy and agree with. The changes that were made were actually discussed with the EM's and where the splits were drawn especially in Bucks and Montgomery counties the EM's were pleased with it. Remember that Burlington County is split and several times we have headlines up for the northwestern part of the county and not the southeast and I do not recall the media calling us because of confusion. That I guess could be somewhat different than the eastern PA counties, but it is the same idea since it is part of the Philly metro. Look at the snow event last month when Delaware and Philadelphia counties were under a warning at one point yet north and west were under an advisory. This was because of higher criteria just to the north and west. This has happened several times during the 9 years I have been here and I do not recall people calling us up all confused, or the media calling us complaining about it. The new split was to help streamline things and make the entire metro area more uniform.

[famartin]

5" would probably compromise realistically (you could include Central NJ --- Monmouth, Mercer, MIddlesex Counties) as it would provide a better bridge from 4 to 6 without having a two inch jump.

No, Monmouth has to remain 6" because of all the extra snow that Isotherm gets

[Parsley]

It's all good tonight, yo:

PAZ103-060915-

WESTERN MONTGOMERY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN

607 PM EST WED DEC 5 2012

[phlwx]

Remember that Burlington County is split and several times we have headlines up for the northwestern part of the county and not the southeast and I do not recall the media calling us because of confusion. That I guess could be somewhat different than the eastern PA counties, but it is the same idea since it is part of the Philly metro. Look at the snow event last month when Delaware and Philadelphia counties were under a warning at one point yet north and west were under an advisory. This was because of higher criteria just to the north and west. This has happened several times during the 9 years I have been here and I do not recall people calling us up all confused, or the media calling us complaining about it. The new split was to help streamline things and make the entire metro area more uniform.

I guess that's part of the problem -- should we have warnings for these borderline events in more real estate when there are going to be instances, like the November 7th storm, where trace to 2" ends up being the result instead of 2-5?

Should an event like that (or others) really be warning criteria when it's a borderline situation?

I'm not questioning the forecast in that event or you issuing warnings -- you're (NWS) following guidelines within the forecast but it speaks more to what is criteria for a warning and why it's lower than DC when our average annual snow is higher.

Regarding Burlco, the advisory/warning criteria within Burlington County is consistent within both ends of the county (4" on winter storm in NW and SE Burlco) but it will not be for SE PA's counties. There's a difference in the case you cited. It's one thing if the whole county was 4", 5", or 6" and you warn/advisory half the county because NW is expected to get more snow than SE but at least what the criteria is for a warning in the whole county is consistent from end to end in Burlington's case. It won't be in SE PA.

I'm not trying to pick too many nits...I guess I see softening up the warning criteria by two inches as a pretty steep jump.

I've said my .02 on this here.

[famartin]

I guess that's part of the problem -- should we have warnings for these borderline events in more real estate when there are going to be instances, like the November 7th storm, where trace to 2" ends up being the result instead of 2-5?

Should an event like that (or others) really be warning criteria when it's a borderline situation?

This isn't really a valid argument if I'm reading it right. Think of places down south where criteria is even lower; you could issue a warning for 1-2 and end up with a trace, easily, especially since its more often going to be borderline rain/snow down there.

Out here we've been trying out something called Impact Based Advisories, whereby we issue advisories on expected impact, not snow totals. So, if we expect a coating of snow on the roads during rush hour, we're expected to issue an advisory. Its a great idea, but imagine the bust potential with that! Its huge (and definitely has occurred).

[am19psu]

Out here we've been trying out something called Impact Based Advisories, whereby we issue advisories on expected impact, not snow totals. So, if we expect a coating of snow on the roads during rush hour, we're expected to issue an advisory. Its a great idea, but imagine the bust potential with that! Its huge (and definitely has occurred).

This is clearly the way to go if you want to reach the layman. No one cares about the difference between a forecast of 4 and 6 inches of snow (besides the the people on this board). They care how their lives are going to be impacted. And it's the exact same argument for all weather warnings. Once there is meaningful research with the social scientists, I think it's the future for operational forecasting.

[Rainshadow]

This is clearly the way to go if you want to reach the layman. No one cares about the difference between a forecast of 4 and 6 inches of snow (besides the the people on this board). They care how their lives are going to be impacted. And it's the exact same argument for all weather warnings. Once there is meaningful research with the social scientists, I think it's the future for operational forecasting.

Yes, Yes, Yes.

All my family ever asks is when is it going to start, how much are we going to get and is there going to be school tomorrow. They have never asked me is it going to be an advisory or warning.

[famartin]

This is clearly the way to go if you want to reach the layman. No one cares about the difference between a forecast of 4 and 6 inches of snow (besides the the people on this board). They care how their lives are going to be impacted. And it's the exact same argument for all weather warnings. Once there is meaningful research with the social scientists, I think it's the future for operational forecasting.

I agree, but like I said, the bust potential is high. In fact, its higher out here than there, thanks to all the monkey wrenches that our terrain throws into the model forecasts. It doesn't help that our zones are ginormous. In Elko County, which has an area the size of New Jersey (which has close to 30 forecast zones) we have 5... yup, 5. We used to have 4 when I started, I got one split up. One of those 5 zones is still more than half the size of NJ. And our other 6 forecast zones are also ginormous, covering an area of 2 or 3 states the size of New Jersey (and also in that case, we used to only have 5.. that was the other that I had split up).

[famartin]

Yes, Yes, Yes.

All my family ever asks is when is it going to start, how much are we going to get and is there going to be school tomorrow. They have never asked me is it going to be an advisory or warning.

That is the one funny thing about this. Out here this project was initially brought forth with the suggestion that people don't really care about how much falls. Then this year we had a city public works guy come in and on top of his list of most important forecast elements was: how much. The other was intensity of snowfall.

[am19psu]

I agree, but like I said, the bust potential is high. In fact, its higher out here than there, thanks to all the monkey wrenches that our terrain throws into the model forecasts. It doesn't help that our zones are ginormous. In an area the size of New Jersey (which has close to 30 forecast zones) we have 5... yup, 5. We used to have 4 when I started, I got one split up. One of those 5 zones is still more than half the size of NJ. And our other 6 forecast zones are also ginormous, covering an area of 2 or 3 states the size of New Jersey (and also in that case, we used to only have 5.. that was the other that I had split up).

Totally agree. But we've gotten a lot better at forecasting over the last 20 years. The next 20 are going to bring even more accuracy and precision (yay Moore's Law). We can and should take advantage of it.

That is the one funny thing about this. Out here this project was initially brought forth with the suggestion that people don't really care about how much falls. Then this year we had a city public works guy come in and on top of his list of most important forecast elements was: how much. The other was intensity of snowfall.

We have a snow removal product that I created that depends on the exact amount of snow that falls in inches. The ability to forecast total snowfall isn't going away in the government or private sectors. But messaging needs to be tailored to the specific end user, rather than a general approach. It's not going to happen overnight or even any time soon, but it's the direction forecasting needs to go. Otherwise, the computers will put us all out of jobs in the 20 years.

[famartin]

Totally agree. But we've gotten a lot better at forecasting over the last 20 years. The next 20 are going to bring even more accuracy and precision (yay Moore's Law). We can and should take advantage of it.

Oh, I agree. Its just that we might've jumped just a little bit ahead of our abilities

We have a snow removal product that I created that depends on the exact amount of snow that falls in inches. The ability to forecast total snowfall isn't going away in the government or private sectors. But messaging needs to be tailored to the specific end user, rather than a general approach. It's not going to happen overnight or even any time soon, but it's the direction forecasting needs to go. Otherwise, the computers will put us all out of jobs in the 20 years.

Yes, we don't want that (though there are some people who do).