RutgersWx92 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I haven't seen any estimate on storm surge yet. Is it too soon to get any ideas on how much surge to expect on the high tides let say from Cape Cod to Southern New Jersey? Since i live on the shore in West Haven CT I also was interested in surge for the CT coast. This storm surge model may be of interest: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/et_surge/et_surge_info.shtml Has 4-5 foot storm surge for the Jersey shore, NY harbor, and CT coastline by 96 hours (as far out as it goes), and the storm is still hours from making landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Horrendous mistake. Agreed. If a surprise morning thunderstorm can flood the system, imagine what hours and hours of rain will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 FWIW, 10/26 AO was -2.501. That's somewhat higher than had been shown on yesterday's run of the GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 12z tropical models seem to have shifted south win a cluster of plots landfalling in MD/DE/SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Horrendous mistake. No doubt, budgetary concerns are driving this. When Bloomberg made the choice to say something similar, I was dumbfounded. I guess the 50/50 shot of being write is worth the financial risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 12z tropical models seem to have shifted south win a cluster of plots landfalling in MD/DE/SNJ The 6z GFDL was in VA Capes. It's uses GFS initializations. So I wonder if the GFS will come further SW today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 12z tropical models seem to have shifted south win a cluster of plots landfalling in MD/DE/SNJ Even if the southern track verifies, we would still be looking at lots of wind and major tidal flooding. I would think maybe a few inches of rain as opposed to 6-12 inches would you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't think it's fair to criticize anyone or talk about evacuations when we don't know where the storm is going yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Horrendous mistake. People are already laughing this off around home, because they see Sandy as only a Cat 1 now and the perception that "it's too late in the year to get a hurricane". Unfortunately I think this is a storm that will catch a lot of people off-guard. The surge is by far the greatest worry. Doesn't matter much if it makes landfall in S NJ/DE or closer. The long-duration fetch and gusts to 90 mph+ at the immediate coast will do tons of its own damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This storm surge model may be of interest: http://www.opc.ncep....urge_info.shtml Has 4-5 foot storm surge for the Jersey shore, NY harbor, and CT coastline by 96 hours (as far out as it goes), and the storm is still hours from making landfall. Wow, those are some pretty darn impressive values. Concerned about my office which is near the shore in SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Even if the southern track verifies, we would still be looking at lots of wind and major tidal flooding. I would think maybe a few inches of rain as opposed to 6-12 inches would you agree? If it makes landfall south of Delaware, we would begin to see some lessened impacts I would think..but still a considerable burst of wind along the shore and storm surge. If it landfalls between DE and Central NJ...people are underestimating the effect of the easterly gales on the shores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 There's going to several more adjustments to the track. The likelihood that the track on the 12z run will be the ultimate track is very slim. I would not be shocked to see re-adjustment to the north by tomorrow. I think a Cape May or Ocean City, NJ hit is more probable with pressure of 970-975 mb on landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFDL has been hitting the VA capes for awhile now, but the GFS has not budged really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFDL has been hitting the VA capes for awhile now, but the GFS has not budged really. Yeah.. things are starting to get interesting now with some more tropical models starting to shift south at 12z. Where were the Euro ensembles last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah.. things are starting to get interesting now with some more tropical models starting to shift south at 12z. Where were the Euro ensembles last night? A hair south of 12z. Just north of ACY or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm still in the Delmarva - LI camp. ECM overamp bias will correct itself to the north in line with its ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NAM Long Island landfall at 84hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah.. things are starting to get interesting now with some more tropical models starting to shift south at 12z. Where were the Euro ensembles last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Upton THE STORM IS VERY LARGE AND REGARDLESS WHETHER IT IS TROPICAL OR NOT WILL STILL BE A POWERFUL AND HISTORIC STORM IN THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm thinking anything north of central NJ is looking less and less likely at this point though we are dealing with something fairly unprecedented so it wouldn't surprise me if we see more shifts. I'm still in the Delmarva - LI camp. ECM overamp bias will correct itself to the north in line with its ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That model run is a worst case scenerio for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't think it's fair to criticize anyone or talk about evacuations when we don't know where the storm is going yet. Strongly agree....I am not an emergency management expert but I don't think we are in the window yet for when those kinds of calls need to be made....also the quote that was made was literally yesterdays news...and the MTA boss was probably interviewed earlier than that....I'm sure if as we get closer to the onset of the event significant surge is being predicted that might change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 A hair south of 12z. Just north of ACY or so. The Euro and ensembles have been remarkably consistent and are probably closer to correct. They could be consistently wrong, though. Incredibly complex situation unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Not quite. With surface low over LI, winds would be more northerly for a time. Worst case scenario would be landfall into LBI to say Belmar, NJ with low then retrograding SW towards PHL. That model run is a worst case scenerio for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Not quite. With surface low over LI, winds would be more northerly for a time. Worst case scenario would be landfall into LBI to say Belmar, NJ with low then retrograding SW towards PHL. Should have calrified Meant of all the model runs this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That model run is a worst case scenerio for NYC No, that would be worse for eastern New England. It keeps NYC in offshore winds, although the Sound would likely still have serious issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFDL has been hitting the VA capes for awhile now, but the GFS has not budged really. I have noticed for a long time that the GFDL has a southern and western bias, in addition to being too deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomWH Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That model run is a worst case scenerio for NYC It looks like a WCS for the wind and rain but not tidle flooding. North shore of LI would see a lot of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 No, that would be worse for eastern New England. It keeps NYC in offshore winds, although the Sound would likely still have serious issues. actually remember this is a slow moving system - u get SE winds for a while that turn to the NE as it stalls , this run is out to 84 hours , then its retrogrades ( if u believe this 1 run ) its bad for NYC " if true " beacuse you will pile LI SOUND WATER back down the east river and as it back NW - you take a storm surge up the east river into the battery . i was comparing to the other model run this AM that takes into the Delmarva so should have read this is a worst case scenerio in comparison to the other runs this AM . I THINK LANDFALL is in south jersey . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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