hurricane sandy thread #2

[Snow_Miser]

FWIW, the 3z SREF shows a NJ landfall, which is in line with the GFS, GEFS, and ECM ENS.

[donsutherland1]

But Don, I believe that most of the models were slowing Sandy down near this point anyway (not sure to the extent)...I haven't checked the position wrt the models at this point. Can you clarify?

Agreed, but I believe it's running closer to the slower scenarios modeled. Nonetheless, I don't have enough confidence to dismiss the op GFS right now.

[donsutherland1]

The Virginia Capes are too south of a possibility IMO. How intense Sandy also determines when it will make that westward turn, as well as the forward motion of the trough and how strong the energy is rounding the base of the trough. The intensity of the ridge by Greenland is also another factor, which has been trending weaker on the model runs, which would support a slightly north track.

I can see anywhere from the Delmarva to NYC as a possible landfalling point for this system.

The VA Capes are as far south as I could envision Sandy making landfall. I believe landfall will be farther north and NYC probably isn't out of the running, though I currently think landfall will be south of there (somewhere along the Delmarva or southern NJ coast perhaps 20-30 miles north of ACY). As today's AO data has not yet been posted, I'm hesistant to comment on how fast the block is weakening. Faster weakening would allow for a farther north landfall.

[NaoPos]

NWS storm surge model.: apparently, water is still rising at the end of this run:

[NEG NAO]

Agreed, but I believe it's running closer to the slower scenarios modeled. Nonetheless, I don't have enough confidence to dismiss the op GFS right now.

Agree - It is impossible at this point in time 4 days out to predict a landfall location and track with much accuracy this far north - atmospheric conditions at the time -strength and location of all the players on the field so to say will determine the path and strength of this storm days 3 -5 - BUT every model run from here on out will increase the confidence as they should all gradually come closer in agreement as we get closer in regards to exactly where this will come inland......

[bluewave]

The NOGAPS is right in there with the Euro and ens on a Delmarva SNJ Landfall.

[MJO812]

12z early dynamic models are clustered around south Jersey.

[jm1220]

The NOGAPS is right in there with the Euro and ens on a Delmarva SNJ Landfall.

I would have to lean that way as well as of now, given the remarkable consistency of the Euro and ensembles over several runs. Usually when they lock in like this, they're the best way to go. The slow forward speed, as Don alluded to, makes it very possible that it gets captured quicker. The strength of the block is essential however, and if it weakens more than forecast we will likely see the models come back north. If I had to pick a spot for landfall now it would be Belmar-ACY. We are pretty much guaranteed a severe impact regardless. Imagine the 1991 Perfect Storm coming inland-that seems what we're destined for.

[KEITH L.I]

I would have to lean that way as well as of now, given the remarkable consistency of the Euro and ensembles over several runs. Usually when they lock in like this, they're the best way to go. The slow forward speed, as Don alluded to, makes it very possible that it gets captured quicker. The strength of the block is essential however, and if it weakens more than forecast we will likely see the models come back north. If I had to pick a spot for landfall now it would be Belmar-ACY. We are pretty much guaranteed a severe impact regardless. Imagine the 1991 Perfect Storm coming inland-that seems what we're destined for.

totally agree..don't look at this as a warm core tropical feature..very well the strongest winds could be far away from the actual landfall..example The Perfect Storm and many strong noreasters..Dec 1992 the low was near Philly and the Belt pkwy was under water

[MJO812]

This is from HM in the SNE thread

But let's be real: NYC is in some real trouble if this storm doesn't track to the East. While the memory of Irene is firmly placed in the back of people's minds with the pathetic 6-12" surge at Battery, my worry is no one will take it seriously. I couldn't possibly speculate on the water that would pile up in NYC but it would be devastating. There has been a lot of research since 1992 about the possibility and I remember the simulations were terrifying if a major hurricane bolted into NYC, akin to 1938 but further West.

[IsentropicLift]

I feel like some people in this sub forum are pushing the panic button already and assuming that the center will come in far enough SW that this area avoids the worst impacts. We still have 3-4 days to go and a lot of model cycles, things are going to be changing and it's still to early to take anything off the table. The wind field stretches hundreds of miles away from the center and even if we end up with a LF down in the Delmarva, the effects will be felt all the way up into New England.

[IsentropicLift]

This is from HM in the SNE thread

I was trying to state this point yesterday, comparing this to Irene would be a mistake. The good news is that the Mayors office is taking this threat seriously and from what I heard this morning, plans are being drawn to repeat the evacuation orders that were issued for Irene.

I'm still wondering if anybody has information as to when they might issue an evacuation order for some of the barrier islands in southern NJ. They did it for Irene so I would assume they will also repeat there evacuation orders.

[SmokeEater]

I was trying to state this point yesterday, comparing this to Irene would be a mistake. The good news is that the Mayors office is taking this threat seriously and from what I heard this morning, plans are being drawn to repeat the evacuation orders that were issued for Irene.

I'm still wondering if anybody has information as to when they might issue an evacuation order for some of the barrier islands in southern NJ. They did it for Irene so I would assume they will also repeat there evacuation orders.

Oh yea, they'll issue mandatory evacs down here, I would bet sometime Sunday. I'll keep ya updated. I'm gonna get as much footage as possible, in between fire calls, if I can even get a break.

[jm1220]

This is from HM in the SNE thread

I couldn't agree more. If this makes landfall south of us, particularly anywhere in NJ, we will be in huge trouble. The Euro wouldn't be much better. All this water is going to build up over successive tide cycles, and hurricane force southerly/easterly winds will do a great job piling it in. The orientation of the coastline here is what takes this from dangerous to possibly devastating. All the water just funnels into LI Sound and NY Harbor. I could certainly see this as being worse than Irene, if it takes the right track due to its size, longevity, and fetch.

[Isotherm]

I couldn't agree more. If this makes landfall south of us, particularly anywhere in NJ, we will be in huge trouble. The Euro wouldn't be much better. All this water is going to build up over successive tide cycles, and hurricane force southerly/easterly winds will do a great job piling it in. The orientation of the coastline here is what takes this from dangerous to possibly devastating. All the water just funnels into LI Sound and NY Harbor. I could certainly see this as being worse than Irene, if it takes the right track due to its size, longevity, and fetch.

Fully agree. I didn't think I'd be using these words, the potential here is much worse than Irene, for catastrophic type damage if a NJ landfall solution verifies. Worst case scenario would be a NW/WNW veering into Sandy Hook and NNJ, pushing the surge directly into NY Harbor. People that aren't taking precautions b/c they think this will be similar to Irene might be doing themselves a disservice. The synoptic-set is much more dynamic with plenty of mid/upper energy to support a very large, damaging wind field upon landfall. As I noted last night, hurricane force gusts will probably cover a much larger area than most SSW-NNE propagating hurricanes we've seen in the Northeast. Irene was one of the worst storms in recorded history for parts of NJ, but this has the potential to be the worst, given the level of infrastructure compared to prior years and decades.

[NJHurricane]

totally agree..don't look at this as a warm core tropical feature..very well the strongest winds could be far away from the actual landfall..example The Perfect Storm and many strong noreasters..Dec 1992 the low was near Philly and the Belt pkwy was under water

Yeah everybody keeps falling into the landfall trap here...completely ignoring the expansive wind/pressure field that is apparent on every model save the fluky maine bound GGEM....whether its a Delmarva/central Jersey/LI landfall you still have a deep system with a wide expanse of potentially damaging gusts...if it makes landfall nearer me like the Euro, I'm sure there would still be high wind warning criteria gusts frequently up there. A solution into NYC or LI...would actually bring stronger albeit offshore winds downt to Philly/Delmarva. There is really at this time no basis to believe that either metro area would get off scott free from serious effects from a landfall nearer to one or the other...

[earthlight]

One thing you can easily note on the SREF is the timing...the faster models bring the surface low west at a farther south point -- while the slower solutions are tending to be farther north.

Despite that....every member has 60-70mph sustained winds pounding the NJ shore and South Shore of Long Island

[IsentropicLift]

Oh yea, they'll issue mandatory evacs down here, I would bet sometime Sunday. I'll keep ya updated. I'm gonna get as much footage as possible, in between fire calls, if I can even get a break.

Yeah I plan to be at the firehouse a lot over the course of the next week lol. Besides fire calls, we have 3 rivers that run through our town and the sorrounding towns. (Pequannock/Pompton/Passaic rivers) so we'll be very busy with flood evacs ect.

I'm heading down the parkway tonight to our place in Pomona. It's right near Stockton College. We're going to close everything up and batten down the hatches. Then come back early tommorrow afternoon. The plan is to be home and off the Parkway by the time that the evacs are ordered.

So if anyone gets more info about when these evacuations are going to be ordered, please be sure to let me know.

Thanks.

[jm1220]

Sandy looks Awful right now , I just hope the models idea of this storm bombing out once it gets captured verifies ..

It may already be undergoing extratropical transition, and she is likely taking a nasty punch of dry air from the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless, when the capture/phase happens Sandy will bomb, big time. It really doesn't matter much if it's in the 940s or 950s when it gets here. Remember, major hurricane pressure starts at 960mb, and there will be a large high to the northeast enhancing the gradient.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Agreed, but I believe it's running closer to the slower scenarios modeled. Nonetheless, I don't have enough confidence to dismiss the op GFS right now.

My confidence is increasing that a landfall to the south is more likely. When ECMWF persists in that idea for days and days and then trends even further to the left, usually it ends up generally being the right idea. The 6Z GFS also was a hair more to the left though still landfall over Long Island it was slightly further to the left/west.

WX/PT

[donsutherland1]

Yeah everybody keeps falling into the landfall trap here...completely ignoring the expansive wind/pressure field that is apparent on every model save the fluky maine bound GGEM....whether its a Delmarva/central Jersey/LI landfall you still have a deep system with a wide expanse of potentially damaging gusts...

I strongly agree. For those who experienced it, the unnamed 1991 hurricane ("Perfect Storm") offers a good example of the impact of such a hybrid-type storm. That hurricane remained 150-200 miles away from the general NY Metro Area, yet there were wind/coastal flooding issues. Sandy could be stronger and perhaps have an even more expansive wind field.

[IsentropicLift]

When you look at the WV loop it's pretty clear that the ULL low over the Keys is really helping to pump in dry air to the east side of the circulation. I think that's why all the convection right now is on the western side of the CDO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[bluewave]

The models have been forecasting Sandy to become more asymmetric today as she is coming under the influence

of the STJ and UL. She is forecast to keep her warm core right up until the time of landfall. The GFS is actually showing

her becoming more symmetric during the phasing and intensification process as she comes ashore.

[KEITH L.I]

I strongly agree. For those who experienced it, the unnamed 1991 hurricane ("Perfect Storm") offers a good example of the impact of such a hybrid-type storm. That hurricane remained 150-200 miles away from the general NY Metro Area, yet there were wind/coastal flooding issues. Sandy could be stronger and perhaps have an even more expansive wind field.

there was 3 to 4 feet of water on the southshore of LI near my home in Babylon during the perfect storm..we were hundred's of miles away from the center..also dec 92 was inland in SE PA and the Belt pwky was under water

[JSantanaNYC]

Joseph J. Lhota, the chairman of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, said in a radio interview on WNYC on Thursday that the agency was discussing contingency plans to move buses to higher ground if necessary. Last year, the authority carried out an unprecedented shutdown of the entire subway system ahead of Tropical Storm Irene.

“I don’t think we’re looking at anything like that for what’s happening next week,” Mr. Lhota said.

Source : NY Times

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Source : NY Times

Oh boy. Here we go. -_-III

[SnowDemon]

Source : NY Times

Oh boy . . .

[dbc]

Joseph J. Lhota, the chairman of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, said in a radio interview on WNYC on Thursday that the agency was discussing contingency plans to move buses to higher ground if necessary. Last year, the authority carried out an unprecedented shutdown of the entire subway system ahead of Tropical Storm Irene.

“I don’t think we’re looking at anything like that for what’s happening next week,” Mr. Lhota said.

Source : NY Times

Horrendous mistake.

[IsentropicLift]

Source : NY Times

Just imagine the chaos if the subway system is not shut down, and then they become flooded out with trains in operation? I wouldn't want to be the one answering to the public/media. I'm sure the city is in direct contact with the NHC and that they will make the right/smart decisions.

[donsutherland1]

there was 3 to 4 feet of water on the southshore of LI near my home in Babylon during the perfect storm..we were hundred's of miles away from the center..also dec 92 was inland in SE PA and the Belt pwky was under water

I hope the residents along the South Shore keep that in mind and won't be lulled into unnecessary complacency by Sandy's track if it turns toward the Delmarva instead of southern/central NJ. The NHC has certainly been trying to alert people not to focus too much on the track.