Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The crappy NAM looks odd. Not sure why it's so elongated. FWIW...the whole area still gets hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Just to illustrate the whole left/right jet streak topic, I drew up a quick sketch on the 18Z GFS 250mb panel valid early next week. Helps to see it visually. Sandy will be positioned in favorable positions for upward motion in both jet streaks, and other small ones as noted. Rising air occurs in the left exit and right entrance regions. Easy way to remember it, draw an arrow through the streak, where it starts is the entrance, ends is the exit, and the left entrace/exit are on one side, right entrance/exit on the other side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 FWIW, we actually end up with more rain on the 00z NAM vs the 18z GFS thanks to the further north track. Edit: This is the rain through hr 84, per the simulated radar, it's still pouring on the NAM. It's the NAM though and it's certainly and outlier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC is on the left side of most of the guidance envelope now. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC is on the left side of most of the guidance envelope now. Interesting. Could be they are backing off on the forward speed of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC is on the left side of most of the guidance envelope now. Interesting. Looks like they are going with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC is on the left side of most of the guidance envelope now. Interesting. Maybe they're giving more weight to ECMWF/Ensembles due to its better consistency and seemingly better handle on the synoptics thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like they are going with the Euro. That track still brings in some serious winds to the tri-state area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Asymmetric warm core intensification forecasted by the 18Z GFS.... ...big time on the CMC... ... and others as well. I'm beginning to wonder if the wind threat from this being under-forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That track still brings in some serious winds to the tri-state area. In a storm like this will be the strongest winds will likely be displaced a hundred mile NE of the center so a track over south Jersey is probably the worst case scenario for the nyc area. If it trends even further south then maybe the effects lessen somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 flooding from hurricane Donna is the bench mark for high tides in this area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Something I just read in the Mt. Holly briefing package that didn't cross my mind was the potential issue w/ fallen leaves clogging storm drains. Given peak foliage, most trees are likely to lose a ton of leaves throughout the duration of this event, and those leaves will exacerbate flooding concerns. Additionally, travel will be more slippery and hazardous between fallen leaves, strong winds, and heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 After loading this loop (15mb) of the 18z GFS tropopause forecast..you can track the tropopause disturbance from Hawaii..through the Western US...over Arkansas..and off the coast...that eventually captures Sandy. The tropopause gradient that develops is by far the most impressive i've seen in our area. http://models.weathe..._globe_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Just flew in from florida and its good to be back and tracking with you fellas. Hoping to stay grounded a few weeks this time... Ill throw up the tracking thread in the morning. SST warmer than normal perhaps aiding in keeping Sandy fueled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I wonder how much further west this can realistically go. I would think unless it makes a sharp left turn off the coast of NC that the VA/NC is probably the furthest south it could make landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I wonder how much further west this can realistically go. I would think unless it makes a sharp left turn off the coast of NC that the VA/NC is probably the furthest south it could make landfall. I think the NHC illustrates that as well with their cone from va to new england. After the limited data ive been tracking i dont think we'll be able to hone in on how soon Sandy is captured and how far south its pulled west and makes landfall for another 36 hours (sat) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I guess we'll see if the Euro continues the trend or shifts back NE I think the NHC illustrates that as well with their cone from va to new england. After the limited data ive been tracking i dont think we'll be able to hone in on how soon Sandy is captured and how far south its pulled west and makes landfall for another 36 hours (sat) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Through 66 hrs the GFS is farther northeast with the TC than it was on the 18z run -- but more energetic with height falls in the Central/Eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Asymmetric warm core intensification forecasted by the 18Z GFS.... ...big time on the CMC... ... and others as well. I'm beginning to wonder if the wind threat from this being under-forecast. Agree and it's really interesting to see the models rapidly strengthen the surface low once the phase occurs and the storm loses it's "true" tropical characteristics despite remaining warm core. Can't remember ever seeing anything quite like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The GFS is now a good bit northeast of it's 18z run at 84 hours. Blocking to the north is weaker as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The retrograde back to the northwest is starting now at 90 hours. Crazy to see the GFS hundreds of miles east of the Euro at the same latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Talk about a wide hook...this thing goes east of Maine's latitude and is now coming back and accelerating to the west while phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 so is the gfs takeing it into sne instead of jersy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 so is the gfs takeing it into sne instead of jersy NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 940's mb over Long Island at 114...still big winds over LI/NY/CT coasts...less over NJ than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Really weird wide turn on 00Z GFS before coming back & making landfall at LI it appears at 114hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't think the TV Mets are explaining this right. This is a war. We have arctic air, an unusually early blast of arctic air at that, going to war with tropical air. The battleground is well, where we live... it's gonna be violent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 i think the gfs might be too far east still. compromise as many have said (due to the ensemble mean) would be in the middle, with a landfall on the north Jersey coast. what time's the euro coming out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Really weird wide turn on 00Z GFS before coming back & making landfall at LI it appears at 114hrs. Crazy how it can turn on a dime like that and come right back at us. Still fairly large differences with the Euro/ensembles on how fast the capture happens, where and how far Sandy can try an escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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