thewxmann Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Very high impact storm damage potential from wind damage and and storm surges, river flooding. Seems like a 500-1000 year return event as depicted on 00z model suite Last time this happened was 1938 (and that was worse), so I think you're off by about an order of magnitude there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Text soundings from the GFS at 00z, Tuesday (8pm Monday) are quite impressive for JFK. Surface is 959mb with 38 knot winds. (44 mph) 950mb has 54 knot winds. (62 mph) 900mb has 86 knot winds. (99 mph) 850mb has 94 knot winds. (108 mph) Near the ground, it's about a 10 meter to 1 mb ratio for the height to pressure ratio. So if the surface pressure is 959mb, then 950mb is only 90 meters off the ground. 850mb would be 1090 meters. http://vortex.plymou...el&size=640x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Both the NAM and the GFS has surface wind gusts between 70-90mph over LI for Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I will say this now. Come 00z Tue, you better be safe because the **** will be hitting the fan then. jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Per NHC's 5 AM storm surge probs. map, there is even a 5-10% chance of NY harbor receiving a 12-foot surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 06z NAN looks to come in around Seaside Height down the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 HPC and most guidance QPF continues to focus the heaviest rain south and west of the region. Uwards of almost 10 inches down there. likely under done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Latest on winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 High wind watches upgraded to warnings everywhere... * WINDS...EAST 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH FOR ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND ELEVATED BUILDINGS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. http://forecast.weat...gh wind warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 A slight south shift really puts north central nj and NYC under the worst winds. Already quite breezy this morning, gusts nearly 20 maybe 25 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 06z GFS run take Sandy into South Central NJ. No matter where in NJ this makes landfall, it will be a worse case scenario for NYC, Long Island, SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Rainfall estimates 4-8 inches Long Island and NYC, 5-12 inches w CT, 3-6 e CT-RI-MA ... 10-20 se NY north of Yonkers to about Albany and in n/c NJ, s NJ, PHL, , 20-25 nw NJ ne PA sharp gradient to 5 in IPT-SYR and 1-2 in w NY, Toronto. Where are you getting those qpf numbers? Are you pulling them out of your pocket? Not one model or forecaster is predicting 10-25 inches of rain in the region. I've been suspect to the low numbers the models are putting out north of the storm track, but realistically I think your numbers are way to extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Where are you getting those qpf numbers? Are you pulling them out of your pocket? Not one model or forecaster is predicting 10-25 inches of rain in the region. I've been suspect to the low numbers the models are putting out north of the storm track, but realistically I think your numbers are way to extreme. I am curious of that too. I believe a day or so ago he gave some general reasonings for the qpf ideas he has. Obviously it goes against all modeling but this is an unprecedented scenario. If his numbers are even remotely correct then inland flooding will be extreme. Not many have discussed the qpf other than to confirm the models generally showing higher amounts S&W and less north. Could be many are so focused on winds that few are giving qpf a detailed look. Regardless I would love to hear is current detailed reasoning for those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 636 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... IN ACCORDANCE WITH EXPECTED POST TROPICAL TRANSITION OF SANDY...WIND FIELDS INCREASE SPATIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS REALLY PICKING UP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH 925MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40 TO 55 KT. INCREASED WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH THE DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING. WINDS GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 55 TO 60 MPH BY THAT POINT. THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED BY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SANDY STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. GENERAL OPERATION MODELS ARE LINING UP BETTER WITH TIMING...BRINGING THE STORM IN MONDAY EVENING...AND WITH LANDFALL ALONG THE NJ COAST INTO NYC. LATEST NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND NORTH AND BRINGING THE STORM IN NEAR SOUTH TO CENTRAL NJ. THE STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE A TRANSITION INTO POST TROPICAL PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE...THIS WILL BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC. BASED ON ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION. IN TERMS OF WINDS...WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH AND LANDFALL OF SANDY...MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SPEEDS OF 40-55MPH AND GUSTS 70-80MPH. THESE WINDS COULD BE 10 TO 15 MPH HIGHER IN ELEVATED LOCATIONS. IF THESE WINDS ARE REALIZED...THE COMBINATION OF EVENT DURATION...SATURATED GROUNDS...AND PARTIAL TO FULL FOLIAGE TREES...WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER LINES...CAUSING DISRUPTION TO POWER AND POSSIBLY TRANSIT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS...DETAILED IN THE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS. AS FOR RAINFALL...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE POWERFUL COASTAL STORM INTERACTS WITH INTENSE JET/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES RAINFALL POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. THINKING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CITY AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE LOW WITH MORE INTENSE RAIN EXPECTED FOR A LONGER TIME. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTIONS FOR MORE ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 06z GFS run take Sandy into South Central NJ. No matter where in NJ this makes landfall, it will be a worse case scenario for NYC, Long Island, SNE. Looks like Sandy rides i-195 and hooks the turnpike into Philly. Wild track. Landfall around PT Pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 LGA already sustained at 21mph although they are above and beyond any other station right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY. * LOCATION...THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. * COASTAL FLOODING...MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDES. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE AND WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. * HIGH SURF OF 15 TO 20 FEET DRIVEN BY FREQUENT 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLOODING ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING. * A 4 TO 8 FEET STORM SURGE COINCIDING WITH THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A RECORD FLOOD AS MEASURED AT SANDY HOOK...POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN EVER RECORDED SINCE STORM TIDE RECORDS BEGAN AROUND THE 1940S. * AT SANDY HOOK... NEW JERSEY (SANDY HOOK BAY)... THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 741 PM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5 TO 8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 801 AM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 9.0 TO 9.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 822 PM...WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF BETWEEN 10.5 AND 12.0 FEET...THIS LATTER PROJECTION SPECIFIC WITH THE PATH OF SANDY CROSSING THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE MONDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 6z GFS qpf numbers at Kewr are kind of on the low side - anyone agree ? a little over 2.5 inches BUT check out that 850MB wind of 119 - never saw anything around here like that before on a model run but experienced close to that during the 1998 Labor Day Derechio............ http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Tide was way up this am...I would say 2' above norm this will be BAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What kind of sure were they predicting for Staten Island? Got relatives up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 800 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The NHC center actually increased the surge forecast, now 6 to 11 feet for the LI sounds, New York Harbor, and Raritan Bay. Still don't want to evacuate Bloomberg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vin Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 951 pressure. :OMGSMILEY: And convection starting to really flare on the western side.. wonder if will have a chance at wrap-around once it starts the turn. Anyone got a map of the SST that sandy's goin over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 She's down to 951mb @8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 951mb.......NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The NHC center actually increased the surge forecast, now 6 to 11 feet for the LI sounds, New York Harbor, and Raritan Bay. Still don't want to evacuate Bloomberg? He really risks damaging his legacy, not to mention put thousands of people's lives at risk if he does not take some strong action today. Will be interesting to see how he spins it since NYC has been in the crosshairs for about 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I can't help but think LGA area and coastal CT will be totally screwed because of wind max and high tide timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I can't help but think LGA area and coastal CT will be totally screwed because of wind max and high tide timing. Aw crap. I'm close to LGA, or at least paralleled to that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 951mb.......NOW! Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 How are people planning on staying connected once we all lose power? This truly is going to stink.. Cell phones..l always carry a car charger. But your safety and health is 1st. Stay safe evryone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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