csnavywx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sorry for quoting the whole image, but whats the next image. Thanks. Blam: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Jim Cantore pretty adamant against NHC for not putting up Hurricane Warnings...Twitter page shows it https://twitter.com/JimCantore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Blam: http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Thank you. I am a little new in looking for all the websites for models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GFS has 90kt winds at 1500ft for everybody over Union/Essex/Bergen counties on eastward with 100+kt max observed wind over Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 So basically the top of the ESB will be seeing gusts in the 110MPH range, similar to 1938 and Hazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 When you say LI you mean all of it or eastern? GFS has 90kt winds at 1500ft for everybody over Union/Essex/Bergen counties on eastward with 100+kt max observed wind over Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GFS has 90kt winds at 1500ft for everybody over Union/Essex/Bergen counties on eastward with 100+kt max observed wind over Long Island. Again, to me this proves I am rightfully stressing the need for people to not rule out sustained hurricane force winds at times in certain areas. To do so would be a horribly foolish mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GFS has 90kt winds at 1500ft for everybody over Union/Essex/Bergen counties on eastward with 100+kt max observed wind over Long Island. 70mph gusts not out of the question for us NJ guys just inland from the coast for a long period. That would do big time damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 When you say LI you mean all of it or eastern? Yes. From klga to kokx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Dont know how accurate this is. SPC wrf wind gust potential http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/nmmwrf.gust_animate_1h.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Typo in wording the 90 kts was maximum observed wind (doesn't really take away from it...90kts at 1500 feet is ridiculous) but here's the graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 70mph gusts not out of the question for us NJ guys just inland from the coast for a long period. That would do big time damage I would figure gusts in the city will reach around 80 MPH. That's obviously not counting areas subject to wind tunneling, which could enhance gusts up to 100 MPH. On that note, there are several spots in the city that I've noticed are especially prone to the wind-tunnel effect. One of the most notable is in between Time Warner and the neighboring residential building on 60th Street. Right next to the parking entrance, whenever it's windy the wind's strength is ALWAYS doubled right in this span of 20-30 feet of sidewalk. When it's gusting to 30-40 the winds there must easily be 60-70, and almost knock you off your feet. I'd presume that anything above 500' could see gusts up to 100MPH, which could blow out windows if there's enough debris. Not something I'd anticipate, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Dont know how accurate this is. SPC wrf wind gust potential http://www.emc.ncep....animate_1h.html Well we can do it this way...it says max gust potential is 50mph off the coast of OBX the next few hrs and here's the obs there so far with gusts to 45 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I would figure gusts in the city will reach around 80 MPH. That's obviously not counting areas subject to wind tunneling, which could enhance gusts up to 100 MPH. On that note, there are several spots in the city that I've noticed are especially prone to the wind-tunnel effect. One of the most notable is in between Time Warner and the neighboring residential building on 60th Street. Right next to the parking entrance, whenever it's windy the wind's strength is ALWAYS doubled right in this span of 20-30 feet of sidewalk. When it's gusting to 30-40 the winds there must easily be 60-70, and almost knock you off your feet. I'd presume that anything above 500' could see gusts up to 100MPH, which could blow out windows if there's enough debris. Not something I'd anticipate, though. Lol, I worked at 60th and Columbus from April 2009-May 2010 and observed very similar wind behavior as you described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Lol, I worked at 60th and Columbus from April 2009-May 2010 and observed very similar wind behavior as you. Funny, that spot is insane. I went to Fordham LC graduated last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Interesting...NAM maybe picking up on an inversion to the NW of the center of circulation over Central NJ into Southeast PA? One area in Southern NJ away from the shore doesn't get above 20mph sustained the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 0z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 @TxStormChasers MT @MetPhenomena #Sandy now has the largest Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) of any tropical cyclone in history, 222 terajoules. (Nerd Alert) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 @TxStormChasers MT @MetPhenomena #Sandy now has the largest Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) of any tropical cyclone in history, 222 terajoules. (Nerd Alert) WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 0z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Interesting...NAM maybe picking up on an inversion to the NW of the center of circulation over Central NJ into Southeast PA? One area in Southern NJ away from the shore doesn't get above 20mph sustained the entire event. Ray (Famartin) and Tony (Rainshadow) have discussed this in the Philly subforum....who knows if it will verify but if it did would create a very different dynamic of the wind threat down here...from one of a prolonged period of sustained higher winds with occasional gusts to one like Irene...brief periods of higher gusts...so maybe the Del valley will be an island of functioning power and internet...but also maybe the most flash flooding with 8"+ per the NAM...not sure if this signal is on any other modeling but something that has gotten some attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Interesting...NAM maybe picking up on an inversion to the NW of the center of circulation over Central NJ into Southeast PA? One area in Southern NJ away from the shore doesn't get above 20mph sustained the entire event. With the lapse rates I figured out from 900hpa-to the surface(HR 48) the eta lapse rate is only -2.48 K/km. This would mean that only about 30% of those winds would transfer down, because of the weak lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NE winds are picking up noticably here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 pressure's been falling last 4 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Storm surge at the Battery is already 1.5 feet above normal and projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Storm surge at the Battery is already 1.5 feet above normal and projections. Funny, I was just looking for a link to those graphics for the beaches/rivers around the area that have the tides and expected levels plotted. Do you have it on hand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NE winds are picking up noticably here What have your winds gone up to? Winds IMBY are not worth noting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 people along the coast and some inland will start taking this storm more seriously tommorrow, when the surge (tomm pm) and wave energy is high enough to start causing some real erosion and damage in spots thanks to the wave energy associated with this beast. watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 people along the coast and some inland will start taking this storm more seriously tommorrow, when the surge (tomm pm) and wave energy is high enough to start causing some real erosion and damage in spots thanks to the wave energy associated with this beast. watch Where, which coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Euro with another landfall in central jersey. Maybe a tad south of 12z. I think we have a great consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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