csnavywx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 18Z GFS bufkit for JFK suggested sustained winds of 50kts at peak (and almost 24 hours of TS force winds). It also has 75-95kt winds just off the deck (1kft to 4kft). Some ridiculous gust potential there with precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 my guess..... because it's not a hurricane. 74 mph sustained winds are not expected. everybody already knows frankenstorm is coming anyway. Ok Tropical storm watches and warnings. Apparently Bloomberg hasn't gotten the word..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NHC 11:00 update...landfall just north of ACY now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 18Z GFS bufkit for JFK suggested sustained winds of 50kts at peak (and almost 24 hours of TS force winds). It also has 75-95kt winds just off the deck (1kft to 4kft). Some ridiculous gust potential there with precipitation. That's what is most alarming to me...the sustained long duration TS force winds and the potential for very strong gusts. Over such a long period of time ... it's going to become a big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That's what is most alarming to me...the sustained long duration TS force winds and the potential for very strong gusts. Over such a long period of time ... it's going to become a big problem. Can someone get me a bufkit for KPOU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NHC bringing it in near Little Egg Harbor..didn't Irene LF there (unrelated) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 We do have high PWATs though so any rain could be lower topped convective in nature. i think its a bit underdone on the north side in the nam As the storm is captured and tilted back to the west the best forcing for heavy precipitation and moisture advection is to the southeast of the surface low. There's also a 500mb dry slot over Long Island at 3z Tuesday which is not helping with the very low precip totals there. You can see that in one of the small images (h5 RH) here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 We do have high PWATs though so any rain could be lower topped convective in nature. i think its a bit underdone on the north side in the nam Agreed 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Still a hurricane at the 11 pm advisory. After it transforms, morfs into an intense nor'easter and hits the NYC area wind gusts to near hurricane force in gusts on Monday night. This is a very large storm with gale force winds across a 500 mile wide area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 waves / surge forecast http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-US_eastcoast- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Would winds be a stronger for places a little higher in elevation along the North Shore of Queens and Nassau County? I live around the corner from the Douglaston Manor which I believe is almost 200' feet above sea level. I also wonder if the North Shore Towers which are a few blocks in the other direction will have some windows pop? A good part of me would love to go out on the roof over there Monday evening (with a safety harness attached of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 that is a remarkable forecast animation. spooky how good it looks by the end of the run. almost making the hurricane symbol. notice that the structure of the hurricane improves dramatically as it approaches NJ on the NAM, becoming much more symmetrical. Most models are adamant that this is going to be a bona fide, strengthening hurricane tomorrow. The models clearly retain a warm-core structure and actually show increasing symmetry during the strengthening phase. But it seems the prevailing thought here and among the NHC is that this will be converting into some sort of extratropical "Franken"storm over the next 24 to 36 hours. What if this line of thinking proves wrong and the models are correct in this strengthening into a hurricane tomorrow? For the record, Dr. Maue, of WeatherBell and a respected tropical meteorology expert, has tweeted that he expects a 100+ knot hurricane tomorrow. This is passing over 27C+ waters of the Gulf Stream. Nor would this be the first time the NHC was proven incorrect. Recall Epsilon and Zeta from 2005... the NHC was adamant that those storms couldn't strengthen that far north that late in the season due to cold waters and high shear. Against all odds, they did. I just wonder given the possibility this could strengthen into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane tomorrow if the lack of hurricane watches isn't doing a disservice to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Can someone get me a bufkit for KPOU? Surface winds stay near TS force for quite a while. It peaks between 11pm Monday and 6am Tuesday. Winds aloft screaming at 80-100kt between 1 and 4kft, with a layer from 3kft to 7kft at about 100kt. The boundary layer destabilizes after midnight Tuesday due to warmer boundary layer air wrapping in on the north side of the circulation and it also shows an environment conducive to warm rain processes (showery). Both of those factors could conspire to transfer some of those ridiculous winds to the surface in gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Most models are adamant that this is going to be a bona fide, strengthening hurricane tomorrow. The models clearly retain a warm-core structure and actually show increasing symmetry during the strengthening phase. But it seems the prevailing thought here and among the NHC is that this will be converting into some sort of extratropical "Franken"storm over the next 24 to 36 hours. What if this line of thinking proves wrong and the models are correct in this strengthening into a hurricane tomorrow? For the record, Dr. Maue, of WeatherBell and a respected tropical meteorology expert, has tweeted that he expects a 100+ knot hurricane tomorrow. This is passing over 27C+ waters of the Gulf Stream. Nor would this be the first time the NHC was proven incorrect. Recall Epsilon and Zeta from 2005... the NHC was adamant that those storms couldn't strengthen that far north that late in the season due to cold waters and high shear. Against all odds, they did. I just wonder given the possibility this could strengthen into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane tomorrow if the lack of hurricane watches isn't doing a disservice to the public. they also said irene would get to strong cat 2/cat 3 before hitting NC..I'm not putting that much stock into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 they also said irene would get to strong cat 2/cat 3 before hitting NC..I'm not putting that much stock into it Agreed the Irene thing has been a red flag to me from the start. I think we see a low end cat one (wind wise not structure) and a pressure in the 950's/60's at landfall. Amazing in its own right because we are in record territory but 930's world record for a not truly tropical entity super unlikely!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The GFS looks like it should come in around Sandy Hook. Looks like between Seasise heights and Sandy Hook may be at or near ground zero on Monday evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The GFS looks like it should come in around Sandy Hook. Looks like between Seasise heights and Sandy Hook may be at or near ground zero on Monday evening.. Maybe even a little south, so a little shift south at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NY Harbor at Whiskey now http://captbbrucato.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/hcp_nynja.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Maybe even a little south, so a little shift south at 00z. its nearly the same as the last few runs. Not the best news for points north and east into New York Harbor.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 waves / surge forecast http://polar.ncep.no..._1-US_eastcoast- Wow that looks like if I am reading it right, 10-11 ft. Is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wow that looks like if I am reading it right, 10-11 ft. Is that correct? Probably a better map but perhaps the overasll northward movement, then sudden drift lefy may allow main surge to continue north into LI/NE. http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-US_eastcoast- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wow Central Jersey jumps from 3" to 6" RN from 18Z to 00Z. LF looks 30mi south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 my guess.....74 mph sustained winds are not expected. I am still not convinced that this is no longer a possibility in some spots. Anyone who comes out at this stage and says it is not possible to still maybe see something like this is setting themselves up to look very foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 00Z GFS hour 48 text output for kisp. 95 knots at 900 hpa wow. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=kisp&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h48&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NHC bringing it in near Little Egg Harbor..didn't Irene LF there (unrelated) Yes, Irene did make "landfall" here, but no one noticed lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 00Z GFS hour 48 text output for kisp. 95 knots at 900 hpa wow. http://vortex.plymou...el&size=640x480 Doesn't get much better even inland a bit...80kts at EWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Total precip off the 0z NAM and an 850mb map showing 100kts around LI, unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What about the storm surge on the Raritan basin, water could really pile up in that area and the gfs looks even more dangerous than before, landfall slightly further south and even more intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sorry for quoting the whole image, but whats the next image. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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