blizzardof09 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Just read that Sandy's IKE is at 5.2. That is insane. Katrina and Wilma were at 5.0 and Ike (2008) maxed at 5.4 before Texas. what exactly is IKE? and comparing katrina and wilma to this must mean this thing is gonna be vicious when it gets to our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 IKE = Integrated Kinetic Energy. Storm surge rating scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 what exactly is IKE? and comparing katrina and wilma to this must mean this thing is gonna be vicious when it gets to our area Integrated Kinetic Energy. Pretty much a better ACE scale. It takes size into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 what exactly is IKE? and comparing katrina and wilma to this must mean this thing is gonna be vicious when it gets to our area It has a lot to do with the storm's size. The wind speeds won't be comparible to Katrina and Wilma, but since Sandy is among the largest hurricanes ever recorded in the basin, its IKE (Integrated Kinetic Energy) is reaching really high numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 IKE = Integrated Kinetic Energy. Storm surge rating scale WOW! this storm is really powerful i mean granted the surge wont be as severe as katrina/wilma but this shows you the amount of water thats gonna be piling into and over the shorelines from central NJ up to NYC and all across LI being that scale goes up to 5.99 a 5.0 is absolutely amazing for where this storm is and how strong its getting. in every sense of the word this is truly unchartered territory as was stated several times today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Eric Holthaus @WSJweather A NOAA analysis ranks #Sandy's wave/surge destructiveness at 5.7 on a 6.0 scale. I have never seen a value that high. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/sandy2012/wind.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Where did you get this? Can you provide a link? email...from a friend of mine who is friends with him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That is insane. 5.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That is insane. 5.7 winds are actually stronger on the SW side rather than the NE quadrant. thought it was suppose to be the other way around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 winds are actually stronger on the SW side rather than the NE quadrant. thought it was suppose to be the other way around? As has been noted the storms orientation will dramatically change during the phase and when the turn west occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 As has been noted the storms orientation will dramatically change during the phase and when the turn west occurs. ahh ok thanks alot earthlight. i know that the strong winds/surge is suppose to be on the northeast side of the storm, just wasnt oriented that way currently. thanks for clarifying bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 0z NAM also continues the GFS trend and has Sandy slightly weaker with the trough apparently holding back a little as well, which results in Sandy taking a slightly more east track. Not every model run is a trend and I'm sticking with a central NJ landfall for now, although perhaps this could be some sort of a small scale short range trend for a slightly delayed turn to the NW and a landfall location further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 0z NAM looks to be headed for cnj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The NAM is slightly deeper and farther north...same results as far as wind fields...storm makes landfall near Asbury Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 No major changes with the 00z NAM If the GFS and ECM come in similar, I'd pretty much call it a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 0z NAM also continues the GFS trend and has Sandy slightly weaker with the trough apparently holding back a little as well, which results in Sandy taking a slightly more east track. Not every model run is a trend and I'm sticking with a central NJ landfall for now, although perhaps this could be some sort of a small scale short range trend for a slightly delayed turn to the NW and a landfall location further north? The CoC makes landfall in the exact same location in the exact same county as the 18z run..it just hooks slightly farther east/northeast than the 18z run which makes it look farther north for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 18z GFS ensembles. I'd call that a consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 major precip cutoff again. AC 6"...ewr about 1.5" (through Tuesday 06z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Everything is locking in for a worst-case scenario, with the storm making landfall to the immediate south of NYC. I still think it could vary between Atlantic City and NYC itself, but the range has shrunk considerably. Looking forward to gusts over 75 MPH.... Re: damage threshold-- The only three events where I have seen actual wind damage occur (huge trees down etc) are Isabel, and two Derechos in DC (this year and in '07 or '08) and all three had gusts to 70. Never seen anything come close in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 that is a remarkable forecast animation. spooky how good it looks by the end of the run. almost making the hurricane symbol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The 4km NAM is rolling in with some insane 850mb winds. Widespread 90+ knot area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 notice that the structure of the hurricane improves dramatically as it approaches NJ on the NAM, becoming much more symmetrical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 High resolution 4km NAM has 40mph sustained 10m winds for 6+ hours for most of the NYC area...55+mph sustained along the Nj shore and LI Sound with the twin forks over 60mph sustained. 925mb winds are some of the strongest I've ever seen them for a sustained period in this area..over 60 for much of the area with Long Island over 75 under the LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 How much surge would the NAM bring? Does anyone know the elevation of Zone A vs. Zone B in NYC? I'm up on high ground so I'm going down to the Village to stay with a friend who is in Zone B. I would figure only Zone A is vulnerable, but perhaps Zone B may be as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 As far as surge into NY Harbor specifically, things could continue to be very poor as the center passes onto land. The NAM has 30-40kt sustained southeast winds ripping into the harbor with the center over the Poconos. http://www.meteo.psu...TAPA_0z/f54.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Looks like DC sees a snowstorm this run as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The precip cutoff on the NAM is incredible. I wonder whats causing such a sharp decline in rain in northern nj/southern ny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The precip cutoff on the NAM is incredible. I wonder whats causing such a sharp decline in rain in northern nj/southern ny? The southern parts can keep the rain. Should be a fun drive back into Nyack for me Monday a.m. from North East CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The precip cutoff on the NAM is incredible. I wonder whats causing such a sharp decline in rain in northern nj/southern ny? As the storm is captured and tilted back to the west the best forcing for heavy precipitation and moisture advection is to the southeast of the surface low. There's also a 500mb dry slot over Long Island at 3z Tuesday which is not helping with the very low precip totals there. You can see that in one of the small images (h5 RH) here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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