hurricane sandy thread #2

[SnoSki14]

How far south can it go realistically?

[MikeS]

How far south can it go realistically?

Some models have it making lanfall as south as VA.

[Kaner587]

if you discount the outliers it looks like northern delmarva/southern NJ to Montauk. Everything is pointing to a NJ landfall. Not good.

[neweathereye]

Look...I am a bit peeved that folks on here are saying that Sandy will make landfall near the mid atlantic...the most trusted models are bringing Sandy into either NJ or near Long Island and maybe near Conn...where is everyone getting this notion that Sandy has trended much further south..Its BS....We have several more model runs of the Euro and the GFS and these have trended north. also this will be a far and wide reaching event with a massive wind field,along with heavy R+ and hurricane force winds,and severe coastal flooding,you all know that...its not realistic to say its going south when its not..your passing along information to the public who read these weather forums that will mislead them thinking NYC or NJ is out of the woods when its not..and its not even the NHC's forecast track..so really..stop.

[andyhb]

The most devastating wind storm of all time in pacific north west was a hybrid type system with a pressure similar to what we should see. That storm had widespread wind gust over 100mph. So I think people are downplaying the winds. IF the models verify I think we are talking mega tree and some structural damage. Here on LI the oaks still have leaves and they are going to come down big time once the winds exceed 80mph. (gusts)

That would be the Columbus Day Storm of 1962, which was essentially the remnants of Typhoon Freda enhanced by a jet interaction perhaps not too different from what is being progged here and reached a low pressure of 960 mb.

These were the zonal and meridional winds at H25 at 12z on 10/12/62, from 20th Century Reanalysis...

[Irishmick9]

Is the strength of the high to the north going to play a big role with wind speeds as in typical northeast storms? Luckily a good portion of trees up here in northern Sussex are bare

[bmc10]

Look...I am a bit peeved that folks on here are saying that Sandy will make landfall near the mid atlantic...the most trusted models are bringing Sandy into either NJ or near Long Island and maybe near Conn...where is everyone getting this notion that Sandy has trended much further south..Its BS....We have several more model runs of the Euro and the GFS and these have trended north. also this will be a far and wide reaching event with a massive wind field,along with heavy R+ and hurricane force winds,and severe coastal flooding,you all know that...its not realistic to say its going south when its not..your passing along information to the public who read these weather forums that will mislead them thinking NYC or NJ is out of the woods when its not..and its not even the NHC's forecast track..so really..stop.

Hate to burst your bubble but some models did trend south. The euro and gfs that you cited both were south. To totally discount a middle Atlantic hit would be foolish.

[Superstorm93]

So tasty.

[jm1220]

winds and surge on LI are gonna by far be the biggest stories. hurricane force winds are starting to look more likely with higher gusts as well. surge, were gonna see something the likes that not many have seen around here and dont wanna see in there life on the coastline. we are really in the worst case scenario for the NYC metro/LI area. and im not seeing much waving away from that either today

We still have time to change things, but the only way we really escape this is if it makes landfall ridiculously far south like over VA, or if it goes to our north and we have offshore winds. If it's a central or south Jersey landfall, which seems most likely at the moment, it would be a majorly damaging scenario for most of our area. If it's like where the Euro OP has it now, it's still damaging but probably not the worst (unless you're further south on the NJ coast). Even where it had it today, hurricane force gusts likely still make it here to the coastal areas. So maybe it would be similar to 3/13/10.

[jm1220]

00z tropical guidance

Liking that NJ landfall even more now.

Tropical models might not be the best to use for our purposes, since they aren't designed to handle mid-latitude jet interactions well. The regular global models might be better.

[jm1220]

Is the strength of the high to the north going to play a big role with wind speeds as in typical northeast storms? Luckily a good portion of trees up here in northern Sussex are bare

Yeah. The strong high is what helps create such a huge wind field to the north of Sandy. That's why we really need this to be obscenely south, like over the lower Delmarva or VA capes to really escape a major impact here.

[andyhb]

So tasty.

Where's baro to make that his new avatar, that is some kind of disgusting intrusion.

[LakeEffectKing]

Latest GFS EnKF ellipses just released....shifted LF north from the previous run:

[rygar]

Sandy isn't looking so hot right now. Are the models picking up on this yet?

If sandy is a relatively weak hurricane now does that dramatically change the impact to our area?

Thanks

[Irishmick9]

Yeah. The strong high is what helps create such a huge wind field to the north of Sandy. That's why we really need this to be obscenely south, like over the lower Delmarva or VA capes to really escape a major impact here.

[Irishmick9]

Thanks jm1220...have not heard much about the high strength. Makes sense

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Yeah. The strong high is what helps create such a huge wind field to the north of Sandy. That's why we really need this to be obscenely south, like over the lower Delmarva or VA capes to really escape a major impact here.

The beach in LB is pretty eroded right now from the past few hurricane swells so even in the far south solution we are looking at major possibly catastrophic beach issues. The last building before you get to azores (the pink hotel) has like 50 feet of beach left separating it from the waves ?I would not want to be a resident there right now. I am actually going to take before pics because I think things are going to change forever.

[Sock Puppet]

A nice graphic on the potential wind field (within link)

http://www.mattnoyes...wind-field.html

[earthlight]

Sustained wind on some of these SREF members is the highest I can remember seeing it..

[Isotherm]

Sustained wind on some of these SREF members is the highest I can remember seeing it..

Even the mean is impressive. Sustained tropical storm force along the coast with gusts likely well into hurricane force range from Delmarva to SNE (coast).

[earthlight]

NMM4 is a great example of why even a southerly track would be bad for the NJ Shore and long Island...those are hurricane force sustained southeast gales with a track into Ocean City, MD.

[psv88]

The beach in LB is pretty eroded right now from the past few hurricane swells so even in the far south solution we are looking at major possibly catastrophic beach issues. The last building before you get to azores (the pink hotel) has like 50 feet of beach left separating it from the waves ?I would not want to be a resident there right now. I am actually going to take before pics because I think things are going to change forever.

Yup. 1992 changed the shape of the coastline for sure.

Shinnecock Inlet was created in the hurricane of 1938...i think this storm is the last straw for Robert Moses field 5, i think it has seen its last season. barely any sand left already, 1992 really did a number on it, this will finish it off.

[Wannabehippie]

I wonder if the NYC subways will get shut down again mon/tues if these models hold true.

[jdt]

NMM4 is a great example of why even a southerly track would be bad for the NJ Shore and long Island...those are hurricane force sustained southeast gales with a track into Ocean City, MD.

Some scary stuff being progged by nearly all the modeling. I saw in an early image of the 18z GFS that 100kt 850mb winds were progged over NW NJ Tuesday morning. If those mix down to any degree yikes! High Point NJ for the inland high gust award! Pure craziness!

[jm1220]

The beach in LB is pretty eroded right now from the past few hurricane swells so even in the far south solution we are looking at major possibly catastrophic beach issues. The last building before you get to azores (the pink hotel) has like 50 feet of beach left separating it from the waves ?I would not want to be a resident there right now. I am actually going to take before pics because I think things are going to change forever.

The beach is going to get absolutely wrecked-no doubt about that, probably even worse than Irene. I'm quite worried about parts of the boardwalk getting ripped out. I don't see much of a way we escape a big time impact down here on the shore. I guess maybe if the crazy southern tracks verify we see peak wind gusts of 80 mph instead of 90 mph? This is just insane.

[earthlight]

Some scary stuff being progged by nearly all the modeling. I saw in an early image of the 18z GFS that 100kt 850mb winds were progged over NW NJ Tuesday morning. If those mix down to any degree yikes! High Point NJ for the inland high gust award! Pure craziness!

This is where my experience with tropical systems becomes limited...and my experience with hybrid type systems extremely limited (i'm sure many here can say the same since i've never dealt with a system quite like the one being forecast on guidance). Those winds off the deck are impressive, but this is not a typical tropical system in a summer month. By the time it's here, it's more of a freakish hybrid...yes it is warm core, but it's late October -- and 2m temperatures are progged to be in the 40's and 50's. I would think those winds are going to have a tougher time mixing down away from the coast .. which might be why the models are showing strong but not insane sfc wind profiles despite the very low pressure.

[earthlight]

NAM is odd...very strung out center and not fully phased aloft through 72 hours. Should come around in the next few frames though (I would think).

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

The beach is going to get absolutely wrecked-no doubt about that, probably even worse than Irene. I'm quite worried about parts of the boardwalk getting ripped out. I don't see much of a way we escape a big time impact down here on the shore. I guess maybe if the crazy southern tracks verify we see peak wind gusts of 80 mph instead of 90 mph? This is just insane.

I think the board walk will be fine. Renolds was smart in that he built it up on concrete pilings. What I am worried about is the height of the actual surge. I had water on my block (bayside) during Irene and another 2 feet and it would have been in my apartment. I saw what happened to people who had salt water flooding in their homes and it wasnt pretty. The terrible thing for those people is allot of them have just finished rebuilding and here we go again. (similar thing happened in the 3 year period 91 (perfect storm) 92 (noreaster) 93 (superstorm) moral of the story is never buy a house prone to coastal flooding!

[MJO812]

NAM is odd...very strung out center and not fully phased aloft through 72 hours. Should come around in the next few frames though (I would think).

Yep, it came around. East of LI at 84 hours.

[jdt]

This is where my experience with tropical systems becomes limited...and my experience with hybrid type systems extremely limited (i'm sure many here can say the same since i've never dealt with a system quite like the one being forecast on guidance). Those winds off the deck are impressive, but this is not a typical tropical system in a summer month. By the time it's here, it's more of a freakish hybrid...yes it is warm core, but it's late October -- and 2m temperatures are progged to be in the 40's and 50's. I would think those winds are going to have a tougher time mixing down away from the coast .. which might be why the models are showing strong but not insane sfc wind profiles despite the very low pressure.

Makes sense thus the "if" they mix down.