LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Simply have to call a spade a spade. There should 100% be Hurricane Watches up right now to warn the public. NAM on top of all the other majors... C'mon. TWC is calling out the NHC on this good for them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 In my experience 65-70MPH is the threshold for damage so anything short is basically run of the mill. Meh. Disagree. I definitely wouldn't call 55-65mph winds run of the mill. We rarely see anything over 50-55 gusts in this area, either via nor'easters or T-storms. Additionally, these gusts will be ongoing over a 24-48 hr period, which is very unique in terms of what we've experienced in this area. Persistent strong winds will weaken trees esp with saturated ground. Structural damage will be limited inland yes, but along the coast it could be quite bad with storm surge, flooding, and gusts to 85+mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 High Wind Watch is in effect Monday Winds 30-40 with gusts to 50 and 60 in the morning Winds 40-55 with gusts to 70 and 80 in the afternoon and night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 436 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 281000- /O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0003.121029T1000Z-121030T2200Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE- PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 436 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. * HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS OF LONG DURATION. * WINDS...NORTHEAST INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH MONDAY MORNING...BECOMING EAST 40 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS 70 TO 80 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. * TIMING...MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. * IMPACTS...A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY EXISTS. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE WIND DAMAGE. WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND SNAPPING OFF LARGE TREE BRANCHES. POWER OUTAGES COULD LAST AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS. DEBRIS WILL BLOCK SOME ROADS. MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND HOMES IS POSSIBLE. WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE BUILDINGS COULD BE BROKEN BY FLYING DEBRIS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. && $$ GOODMAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think hurricane watches will be posted at 5pm..since there are already high wind watches inland NJ / DE coasts just had storm warnings posted. Don't think they'll issue any tropical advisories for the coasts up this way as they aren't needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 No one should be expecting sustained hurricane force winds. Tropical storm force, yes, probably 40-50mph on the coast and 30-40mph sustained inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Alot depends how well the winds mix down. I would not go higher than 35-50, gusts 60 at this point....there will undoubtedly be someone higher, especially on the immediate shore without frictional effects. But this not being a true tropical system it can sometimes be hard to mix winds down, especially once you're just inland. Agree with this. But I do still think even inland areas that are just north of the center will see a burst of strong dangerous wind as the storms center comes near the shore/passes south of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 its real shame there are no hurricane watches out right now. but i can tell you one thing working in a supermarket people are preparing pallets upon pallets of water being sold, batteries, candles etc. but with the way the models are depicting the winds/rain, i would love to be tracking this storm and thats it not experiencing it because where i live i have a feeling i'll probably never experience this again in my life if this turns out to be as bad as its forecasted. earthlight, at this current juncture might be too early to give an answer but how hard along long island are the winds say at 925-950 are going to have mixing down? that me is my number one concern as well if we do indeed get some kind of dryslot as well. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Disagree. I definitely wouldn't call 55-65mph winds run of the mill. We rarely see anything over 50-55 gusts in this area, either via nor'easters or T-storms. exactly. his comment was laughable. meanwhile, mt. holly's comment on winds for monmouth, middlesex, somerset, morris: * WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE WINDS MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE MONDAY AS THE STORM MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH, MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NEW JERSEY COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Upton has High Wind Watches out Wonder if that means no Hurricane Watches. Hurricane watches are from NHC. Local offices issue high wind warnings.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The wind gusts won't be too much stronger than what we had on LI this past winter. We had a 69mph gust on the Dec 7-8th, 2011 storm. Only difference is the winds will be stronger and the trees have leaves on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hurricane watches are from NHC. Local offices issue high wind warnings.. Well aware. I have seen both activated at the same time before. ...HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS ALSO EXPECTED... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NJ / DE coasts just had storm warnings posted. Don't think they'll issue any tropical advisories for the coasts up this way as they aren't needed. Of course I didn't have that posted for any more than a minute and Upton put up a "Hurricane Force Wind Watch" for the NY Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 LI is still not in the cone. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Disagree. I definitely wouldn't call 55-65mph winds run of the mill. We rarely see anything over 50-55 gusts in this area, either via nor'easters or T-storms. Additionally, these gusts will be ongoing over a 24-48 hr period, which is very unique in terms of what we've experienced in this area. Persistent strong winds will weaken trees esp with saturated ground. Structural damage will be limited inland yes, but along the coast it could be quite bad with storm surge, flooding, and gusts to 85+mph. 3/13/10 should put any idea to rest that those kind of winds don't do much damage. Parts of the area hit with those kind of winds were without power for a week, and trees were knocked over everywhere. And that was when trees were de-foliated. When people lose power for many days as a result of those conditions, it's hardly "run of the mill" for them. Those kind of winds can also blow debris around like shingles, siding, loose furniture, etc. I'm hoping honestly that the storm trends east and hits east of us over Suffolk County. It would still be very windy then and more rainy, but the devastating surge would be avoided (however of course it would be worse for other people). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 FIRST A NOTE ON THE NWS WARNING STRATEGY FOR SANDY. IN ORDER TO AVOID THE RISK OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 http://weatherforyou.com/reports/index.php?forecast=tides&place=battery%20park&state=ny&zipcode= Not gonna be pretty based on these high tides + storm surge for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 No one should be expecting sustained hurricane force winds. Tropical storm force, yes, probably 40-50mph on the coast and 30-40mph sustained inland. Look it is hard to say for sure. We really have never seen something quite like this before and won't know until this storm is bearing down on us. I am sure there are legitimate reasons to believe we won't get to sustained Hurricane Force winds (thank goodness) and I must yield to more expert analysis but to rule it out already seems a bit premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Of course I didn't have that posted for any more than a minute and Upton put up a "Hurricane Force Wind Watch" for the NY Harbor. Well there you go. I was chatting with Analog96 the other day and he pointed out this was a possibility as it is a watch they have in their arsenal believe it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 453 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT... ANZ350-353-355-280500- /O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0088.000000T0000Z-121028T1000Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.HF.A.0001.121029T1000Z-121030T2200Z/ MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM- FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM- SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM- 453 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY... ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATION...COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. * WINDS...EAST 45 TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 KT. * SEAS...23 TO 28 FEET. * TIMING...GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASE TO STORM FORCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 64 KT OR GREATER HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 We had winds a bit over 60mph in the 12/26/10 Boxing Day Blizzard, and it did quite a bit of damage here in Dobbs Ferry. We didn't lost many whole trees, but there were large limbs down all over, and some weakened trees that were dying did fall down. That was with bare trees. With trees still carrying leaves and heavy rain, we could be looking at a worse situation. Another factor being underplayed is the duration of the storm. The high winds in the Boxing Day Blizzard lasted a couple hours. Most thunderstorms see only 5-10 minutes of high winds. We're talking a day or more of these winds weakening trees and downing power lines. I am a public school teacher in NYC, and I'm wondering whether Bloomberg is going to cancel school. No way I'm going to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Already had a friend from NYC call to tell me that the storm will miss because no Hurricane Watches or Warnings will be put up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Already had a friend from NYC call to tell me that the storm will miss because no Hurricane Watches or Warnings will be put up. A lot of my friends don't believe me that this storm will be worse than Irene in terms of the surge and winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Already had a friend from NYC call to tell me that the storm will miss because no Hurricane Watches or Warnings will be put up. i mean the NHC did bring up a good point in not doing that, but as you heard from your friend a high wind watch/warning has been issued before in the tri state area and with not very many people taking it seriously at all. but trust me there is plenty of hype going on today up here atleast from where i work and i can tell you people are preparing! im very happy that people are taking this seriously finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 A lot of my friends don't believe me that this storm will be worse than Irene in terms of the surge and winds. Yeah the lack of hurricane watches/warnings has alot of people thinking nor'easter. I think inland is where people will be most surprised, the coast did see 50-60 mph with Irene so people here will probably be less caught off guard outside of the flooding being worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah the lack of hurricane watches/warnings has alot of people thinking nor'easter. I think inland is where people will be most surprised, the coast did see 50-60 mph with Irene so people here will probably be less caught off guard outside of the flooding being worse. snowgoose i think at this time and with the current data we got we can say this is going to be very interesting and intriguing to unfold. were really not gonna see a setup like this again for a long time. inland flooding is gonna be terrible i fear though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 With the time of the year, the very strong winds have another impact that they wouldn't otherwise have - all of the Halloween decorations in people's front yards all over the place that are already set up. I've been told that NE NJ is still full of Halloween decorations prepared weeks ago that haven't been taken down. It's going to be a messy Halloween for many... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah the lack of hurricane watches/warnings has alot of people thinking nor'easter. I think inland is where people will be most surprised, the coast did see 50-60 mph with Irene so people here will probably be less caught off guard outside of the flooding being worse. We had some 50mph gusts during Irene and people here in general don't think this will be worse than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Of course I didn't have that posted for any more than a minute and Upton put up a "Hurricane Force Wind Watch" for the NY Harbor. That is not a tropical watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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