SquatchinNY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 ECMWF 925 mb winds are up to 85-90 kt 00Z Tuesday across eastern Long Island. That's only 1200 ft agl and atop a well mixed layer. IMO gusts over hurricane force quite possible along the coast especially for NJ and Long Island late Monday afternoon and Monday evening. But not inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 ECMWF 925 mb winds are up to 85-90 kt 00Z Tuesday across eastern Long Island. That's only 1200 ft agl and atop a well mixed layer. IMO gusts over hurricane force quite possible along the coast especially for NJ and Long Island late Monday afternoon and Monday evening. That's 69-73 mph sustained at the surface if you deviate down 30% which is a generously high deviation percentage imho. It could be a lower differential than that quite possibly (i.e. maybe as low as 20%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Stronger than the '93 Superstorm, but that was a completely different beast for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 From forky: the euro ens mean, the euro op, the gfs ens mean, the gfs op, and the sref mean are all on top of each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Stronger than the '93 Superstorm, but that was a completely different beast for sure. Looks to beat out December 1992 also I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I read a chart that correlates wind speeds to damage for one- to two-story houses. At 81 MPH, homes may sustain severe damage to roofing, chimney and awning collapses and broken windows. At 103 MPH, some homes may shift off their foundation. This is all 3-second gusts, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I read a chart that correlates wind speeds to damage for one- to two-story houses. At 81 MPH, homes may sustain severe damage to roofing, chimney and awning collapses and broken windows. At 103 MPH, some homes may shift off their foundation. This is all 3-second gusts, by the way. Do you have a link to that chart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 From forky: the euro ens mean, the euro op, the gfs ens mean, the gfs op, and the sref mean are all on top of each other I'm more interested in how far east the storm makes it right now. If it makes it east of 70W, the odds of a Long Island landfall increase. Hard for me to see such a huge storm just make a turn on a dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I read a chart that correlates wind speeds to damage for one- to two-story houses. At 81 MPH, homes may sustain severe damage to roofing, chimney and awning collapses and broken windows. At 103 MPH, some homes may shift off their foundation. This is all 3-second gusts, by the way. Concerns in the city should be limited to flooding from surge. One of the benefits of urban living is most of the housing in NYC was built prior to World War II, and even stuff that has gone up since is generally strong & design is code-enforced, especially for skyscrapers. I would be very surprised if there was significant damage to buildings in NYC, but downed trees are definitely a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks to beat out December 1992 also I think. And March 2010, which had some killer winds sustained, but this will be stronger gusts for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm not seeing any estimates on winds yet for NYC, just vague mentions of 'strong winds'. Can a met chime in? It won't be as bad as LI but I'd figure sustained up to 50-60... but apparently gusts could be much higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 @MyFoxNY: Mayor Michael Bloomberg will hold a press conference tonight at 6pm. Tune into Fox 5 news for the latest on... http://t.co/dfl9YHjB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm not seeing any estimates on winds yet for NYC, just vague mentions of 'strong winds'. Can a met chime in? It won't be as bad as LI but I'd figure sustained up to 50-60... but apparently gusts could be much higher? Alot depends how well the winds mix down. I would not go higher than 35-50, gusts 60 at this point....there will undoubtedly be someone higher, especially on the immediate shore without frictional effects. But this not being a true tropical system it can sometimes be hard to mix winds down, especially once you're just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NWS forecast for Monday night for my location: "east wind 46 to 50mph with gusts up to 70mph". I think they might be judging those winds based on the NHC track, I'm sure those gusts will be higher as the NHC should adjust their track more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Unreal... Nam @54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 18z FWIW CNJ by 54 hours Sub-960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Simply have to call a spade a spade. There should 100% be Hurricane Watches up right now to warn the public. NAM on top of all the other majors... C'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think we'll have unofficial gusts in the 85-90mph range along the immediate NJ shore and LI coast. However, I'd say most coastal ASOS stations will peak in the 70s for gusts, inland NJ in the 55-65 range. The duration of these gusts is one of the biggest concerns, coupled with saturated ground from rains. 60-70mph gusts for 24-36hrs will likely be very damaging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Verbatim on the 12z Euro and GFS, what is the maximum potential for the storm surge in Brooklyn and Queens assuming the landfall happens at high tide? How far inland would the surge penetrate inland when also accounting for full moon, immense size of storm, slow apprach of storm, worst angle of attack and waves? I am about 1.5 mile inland at Sheepshead Bay. Just for reference, the surge in Irene was 3 feet and the water reached 1 mile inland into Brooklyn. Any input would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 4-6" of rain for NYC metro seem solid bet? or more like Irene or Floyd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 High Wind Watch until 6:00 PM Tuesday for Mount Vernon, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm not seeing any estimates on winds yet for NYC, just vague mentions of 'strong winds'. Can a met chime in? It won't be as bad as LI but I'd figure sustained up to 50-60... but apparently gusts could be much higher? DT's first guess.... "60 to 80mph." presumably means gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 In my experience 65-70MPH is the threshold for damage so anything short is basically run of the mill. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 From BOX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow.. ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. * HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS OF LONG DURATION. * WINDS...NORTHEAST INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH MONDAY MORNING...BECOMING EAST 40 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS 70 TO 80 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. * TIMING...MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. * IMPACTS...A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY EXISTS. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE WIND DAMAGE. WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND SNAPPING OFF LARGE TREE BRANCHES. POWER OUTAGES COULD LAST AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS. DEBRIS WILL BLOCK SOME ROADS. MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND HOMES IS POSSIBLE. WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE BUILDINGS COULD BE BROKEN BY FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Upton has High Wind Watches out Wonder if that means no Hurricane Watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Upton has High Wind Watches out Wonder if that means no Hurricane Watches. I'm so confused I thought nhc was taking over, well see I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 In my experience 65-70MPH is the threshold for damage so anything short is basically run of the mill. Meh. Sustained or gusts? I do not buy that the sustained wind will never approach at some point 65-75 mph or even higher in the Metro area and most certainly up and down the NJ and NE NJ coast. I think it is being underestimated but what do I know as it's just my humble opinion on what some of these models are depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think hurricane watches will be posted at 5pm..since there are already high wind watches inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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