IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just got out of a meeting with County OEM, we are concerned with storm surge coming up the Passaic river tidal portion down by Newark and backflowing the areas river systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think 50-60 sustained is an underestimate. My untrained guess based on what I am seeing on these models 75-80 sustained in the immediate NYC area (including 5 boroughs) & up and down the NJ coast is not out of the question. I will not speculate Long Island as their are plenty here who are more equipped to answer that question. I know it's IMBY, but what about furthur up, in near Fishkill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just insane winds on the hi-res NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think 50-60 sustained is an underestimate. My untrained guess based on what I am seeing on these models 75-80 sustained in the immediate NYC area (including 5 boroughs) & up and down the NJ coast is not out of the question. I will not speculate Long Island as their are plenty here who are more equipped to answer that question. That is unlikely the map they posted was the 925 Mb winds and there is a reduction of winds going down to the surface fo about 20-30% so it would be about 50-60 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This is one scary storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Earthlight, we will have trouble mixing that down to the surface on LI if we are dry slotted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Earthlight, we will have trouble mixing that down to the surface on LI if we are dry slotted? Right. Heavy rain produces vertical mixing which is usually needed for surface gusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Accuweather's IMBY forecasted wind gusts Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That is unlikely the map they posted was the 925 Mb winds and there is a reduction of winds going down to the surface fo about 20-30% so it would be about 50-60 mph What? That map shows 90-100 kt winds at H925, even with 20-30% reduction, that would be higher than 50-60 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just insane winds on the hi-res NAM What level is that at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What level is that at? 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That's what makes me think we wont see extremely high winds greater than 70 mph bc to the NE side of land fall looks to get dry slotted at some point before landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 850s isnt that just over 1000 feet above ground because that would be very bad for skyscrapers, alot of windows would be blown out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What? That map shows 90-100 kt winds at H925, even with 20-30% reduction, that would be higher than 50-60 mph. 90-100kts would be 105-115mph. 20-30% reduction=75-85mph. Although in terms of sustained I don't think places outside of right along the coast see sustained greater than 70. Gusts could be ridiculous though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 isnt that just over 1000 feet above ground because that would be very bad for skyscrapers, alot of windows would be blown out 850s are around 5000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 isnt that just over 1000 feet above ground because that would be very bad for skyscrapers, alot of windows would be blown out Actually 850 tends to be near the 5000 foot level. Take a bit off due to the lower pressure near the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I know it's IMBY, but what about furthur up, in near Fishkill? 40-60 sustained, higher gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 40-60 sustained, higher gusts. WOW. I have never been in an NE Quadrant of a strong TS or Hurricane before, just two NW quadrants. (Hanna and Irene) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 90-100kts would be 105-115mph. 20-30% reduction=75-85mph. Although in terms of sustained I don't think places outside of right along the coast see sustained greater than 70. Gusts could be ridiculous though I don't know that we can really know for certain until it is happening but let's not forget how much more expansive the strongest winds will be than your typical hurricane/tropical storm. I think up and down the NJ coast and even into NE NJ and the 5 boroughs could sustain at that level for a time during this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What do people think about winds in Dobbs Ferry, Southern Westchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 WOW. I have never been in an NE Quadrant of a strong TS or Hurricane before, just two NW quadrants. (Hanna and Irene) I got that from the Orange County Emergency Management Facebook page, they got this from the Upton conference call this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I read somewhere that 113 mph reading during Hazel was taken atop a building near the Battery in lower Manhattan. Not sure about the 100 mph reading during the 1938 hurricane. Can anyone compare this type of setup to the passage of Hurricane Hazel. The system had 2 eyes I think with the main one in PA., the other feeding in moisture from the ocean. Very early on Oct. 15, 1954 it produced a SE gust of 113mph in CPK. The 1938 cane had 100mph atop the Empire State Building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I know those in the right front Quad should get more wind, but without rain to force it down from H925, does this mean those folks near the center or even just south of the center could have screaming N to NW winds ripping down from H925 to surface during the anticipated high rainfall rates for these areas? Can these areas see H925 75mph wimds more so than those in the dryslotted right front quad? I'm trying to figure out which side of the core will be more severe wind wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The heights are on the map.....about 110dm..3500 ft. Yea shed a bit more than 1000 feet for 50mb of pressure reduction at surface. I guess in this case 1500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Even if no precip is falling to the NE around the time of landfall? Sustained winds will be much stronger near the ocean. I think max gusts could be in the 80's and 90's in the usual spots...like Sandy Hook/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The highest gusts that JFK and Long Beach received during March of 2010 were when it was barely raining, if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 If the NAM is right, an area from Montauk Point to Cape Cod could see 100mph gusts between 15 and 21z Tuesday. 925mb winds are over 90mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The highest gusts that JFK and Long Beach received during March of 2010 were when it was barely raining, if at all. There were times that it was crazy windy and raining, but yeah-so long as that insane low level jet was overhead, the winds kept up. The winds stopped very quickly once the jet passed to the east. I think it's a good bet we beat the gusts we had then if the model tracks into NJ verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 ECMWF 925 mb winds are up to 85-90 kt 00Z Tuesday across eastern Long Island. That's only 1200 ft agl and atop a well mixed layer. IMO gusts over hurricane force quite possible along the coast especially for NJ and Long Island late Monday afternoon and Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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