CooL Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12z euro update..we are still screwed Hate to say it but this is a doomsday scenario for many folks around our area. Euro and gfs are in very good agreement on a central nj landfall. As well as their ensembles. That is a deadly model combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Monday night - Tuesday is going to be a wild scene in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I don't like this at all. I pray those models are wrong but if this verifies I will call this the storm from hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hate to say it but this is a doomsday scenario for many folks around our area. Euro and gfs are in very good agreement on a central nj landfall. As well as their ensembles. That is a deadly model combo not according to the rainfall totals in the NYC Metro if this verifies - wind damage and coastal flood damgae yes - inland flooding very questionable http://www.hpc.ncep....ll_Days_1-5.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It seems the GFS, Nam, Euro were at a similar landfall spot in north Central Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 not according to the rainfall totals in the NYC Metro if this verifies - wind damage and coastal flood damgae yes - inland flooding very questionable http://www.hpc.ncep....ll_Days_1-5.gif Trememndous flooding wont be a concern unless this going into New england. Im talking about wind and surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 A closer landfall A la the GFS/EURO means heavier rain...maybe on the order of 3-4in. Obviously not flooding rains but heavy nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It seems the GFS, Nam, Euro were at a similar landfall spot in north Central Jersey. lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hate to say it but this is a doomsday scenario for many folks around our area. Euro and gfs are in very good agreement on a central nj landfall. As well as their ensembles. That is a deadly model combo Doomsday is taking it a little too far. Doomsday would be a major hurricane hitting the tri-state. This will not be a cat 4/5 hurricane where we would have to worry about structures being destroyed by wind. This will be very bad, no doubt. A lot of trees down and power outtages. A lot of flooding. The damage will be bad. But it won't be something that the tri-state can't recover from. 80mph winds will not destroy the tri-state, believe me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 what kind of storm surge does the euro show for raritan bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Dr. Jeff Masters http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2277 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Doomsday is taking it a little too far. Doomsday would be a major hurricane hitting the tri-state. This will not be a cat 4/5 hurricane where we would have to worry about structures being destroyed by wind. This will be very bad, no doubt. A lot of trees down and power outtages. A lot of flooding. The damage will be bad. But it won't be something that the tri-state can't recover from. 80mph winds will not destroy the tri-state, believe me. Ugh i knew someone would take that the wrong way lol. I meant that this is worse case scenario from what we are dealing with, a landfall in central jersey. Would bring very bad water rises into NYC/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 How's the windfield? How far do winds stretch out towards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ugh i knew someone would take that the wrong way lol. I meant that this is worse case scenario from what we are dealing with, a landfall in central jersey. Would bring very bad water rises into NYC/LI In many ways a Cat 1/2 hurricane with a NW trajectory into NJ is a more dangerous scenario than a nwd propagating, fast motion Cat 3 into Long Island. For one, the surge is directed well east of the city with the latter, but with Sandy, water will be piling up right into New York City, SE from the Raritan Bay and E from the LI Sound. Wind direction with a S-N moving hurricane into LI is primarily NE/N then NW, similar to a winter nor'easter. But we'll be dealing with strong SELY/ELY winds for much of the storm which is more effective at piling water into the coast. So flooding near the immediate shores will be worse, and it's not so much the max wind intensity that's bad, it's the long duration. 24-36 hrs of potential tropical storm force sustained winds, and gusts to around hurricane force. It's not like a severe T-storm that gusts to 60mph for 2 minutes then it's over. Many folks may be gusting to 60 for 2 days rather than 2 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ugh i knew someone would take that the wrong way lol. I meant that this is worse case scenario from what we are dealing with, a landfall in central jersey. Would bring very bad water rises into NYC/LI In many ways a Cat 1/2 hurricane with a NW trajectory into NJ is a more dangerous scenario than a nwd propagating, fast motion Cat 3 into Long Island. For one, the surge is directed well east of the city with the latter, but with Sandy, water will be piling up right into New York City, SE from the Raritan Bay and E from the LI Sound. Wind direction with a S-N moving hurricane into LI is primarily NE/N than NW, similar to a winter nor'easter. But we'll be dealing with strong SELY/ELY winds for much of the storm which is more effective at piling water into the coast. So flooding near the immediate shores will be worse, and it's not so much the max wind intensity that's bad, it's the long duration. 24-36 hrs of potential tropical storm force sustained winds, and gusts to around hurricane force. It's not like a severe T-storm that gusts to 60mph for 2 minutes than it's over. Many folks may be gusting to 60 for 2 days rather than 2 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NBC4 just tweeted New midday update from American & European models have WORST case scenario for NYC, NJ, CT. People need to prepare now! #NBC4NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 what kind of storm surge does the euro show for raritan bay? In general Raritan Bay gets the worst of it. Use the higher end figure that will be given for the Battery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS would have winds near 100 mph near skyscaper top level, which might break some serious windows, and a gust or two near 100 mph on LI or NYC is possible, which would badly damage homes. (Hrcn Ike with 75-85 mph max winds best track my neighborhood did serious roof damage, some gas station pump shelters toppled, lots of trees down (and that kind of rood damage). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 In many ways a Cat 1/2 hurricane with a NW trajectory into NJ is a more dangerous scenario than a nwd propagating, fast motion Cat 3 into Long Island. For one, the surge is directed well east of the city with the latter, but with Sandy, water will be piling up right into New York City, SE from the Raritan Bay and E from the LI Sound. Wind direction with a S-N moving hurricane into LI is primarily NE/N than NW, similar to a winter nor'easter. But we'll be dealing with strong SELY/ELY winds for much of the storm which is more effective at piling water into the coast. So flooding near the immediate shores will be worse, and it's not so much the max wind intensity that's bad, it's the long duration. 24-36 hrs of potential tropical storm force sustained winds, and gusts to around hurricane force. It's not like a severe T-storm that gusts to 60mph for 2 minutes than it's over. Many folks may be gusting to 60 for 2 days rather than 2 minutes. Very well said... Remember 38 crushed eastern LI but NYC received a glancing blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So mta will start to shut down sunday at 7pm ...second time in history right? First was with Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Things look to get really bad here based on the ECM/GFS/NAM consensus. Masters thinks there's a chance the NYC subways could flood. Accuweather is calling this "The Storm of The Century" Sandy: A Few Good Men Vs. the Storm of the Century Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS would have winds near 100 mph near skyscaper top level, which might break some serious windows, and a gust or two near 100 mph on LI or NYC is possible, which would badly damage homes. (Hrcn Ike with 75-85 mph max winds best track my neighborhood did serious roof damage, some gas station pump shelters toppled, lots of trees down (and that kind of rood damage). Can anyone compare this type of setup to the passage of Hurricane Hazel. The system had 2 eyes I think with the main one in PA., the other feeding in moisture from the ocean. Very early on Oct. 15, 1954 it produced a SE gust of 113mph in CPK. The 1938 cane had 100mph atop the Empire State Building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So mta will start to shut down sunday at 7pm ...second time in history right? First was with Irene Where did you hear this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Cuomo ordered MTA to beginning planning for shutdown of all services as of 7PM tomorrow. Final decision on shutdown won't be made until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Where did you hear this? Andrew Cuomo @NYGovCuomo Final decision on suspending MTA service will be made Sunday cc@MTAInsider #Sandy Andrew Cuomo @NYGovCuomo BREAKING: Gov directs MTA to begin planning for possible suspension of service, incl. subway, bus&commuter railroad #Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Unbelievable. Just another graphic to save, incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 925mb winds are incredible. Earthlight...what do you think in terms of maximal gusts? If the GFS is right I'm thinking 50-60 sustained (esp along the coast) with gusts close to 100mph possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 925mb winds are incredible. Earthlight...what do you think in terms of maximal gusts? If the GFS is right I'm thinking 50-60 sustained (esp along the coast) with gusts close to 100mph possible. I think 50-60 sustained is an underestimate. My untrained guess based on what I am seeing on these models 75-80 sustained in the immediate NYC area (including 5 boroughs) & up and down the NJ coast is not out of the question. I will not speculate Long Island as their are plenty here who are more equipped to answer that question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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