Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I would expect hurricane watches/warnings at the next update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hurricane watches will likely be needed for the entire region at 5 or 11pm. Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think its possible we're misunderstanding that tweet. Dr. Knabb is saying they are avoiding confusing switch later, to explain why they aren't issuing watches/warnings. I guess we'll see but it seems like they are holding their ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Todays run of the surge model has a tide level 1.5 feet above the record at Sandy Hook set during the 1992 Noreaster. We'll have to watch for any changes over the next 48 hrs to know exactly how high the water levels will actually get. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/tide/monmou.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think its possible we're misunderstanding that tweet. Dr. Knabb is saying they are avoiding confusing switch later, to explain why they aren't issuing watches/warnings. I guess we'll see but it seems like they are holding their ground. Bad idea. WTF is wrong with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think its possible we're misunderstanding that tweet. Dr. Knabb is saying they are avoiding confusing switch later, to explain why they aren't issuing watches/warnings. I guess we'll see but it seems like they are holding their ground. Yeah I think you're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think its possible we're misunderstanding that tweet. Dr. Knabb is saying they are avoiding confusing switch later, to explain why they aren't issuing watches/warnings. I guess we'll see but it seems like they are holding their ground. That's my interpretation. To go from a hurricane warning "down to" a high wind warning would take [some] people off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Todays run of the surge model has a tide level 1.5 feet above the record at Sandy Hook set during the 1992 Noreaster. We'll have to watch for any changes over the next 48 hrs to know how high the water levels will actually get. Could you link to the site where you got the image? I've been looking but can't find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I agree with them not issue any watch/or warning due to the fact Sandy will become a cold core post-tropical cyclone but this still should be taken seriously thought with the local officials issue evacuations for low elevated areas. High Wind and Coastal Flood Watch and warnings should cover it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Could you link to the site where you got the image? I've been looking but can't find it. Here's the link: http://www.nws.noaa....surge/index.php Surge guidance can often shift as we get closer to the event and the exact track of the storm is pinned down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think the last move on the chessboard is going to be Euro to GFS-GEM track with 935 mb center. This would take out mega-surge potential for Delaware Bay although some concern would remain, and reduce impact on ACY south (while not by that much). The logic is that this has to come inland slightly north of the vortex and the vortex is the GEM's best asset usually. The GEM 72-84h intensify the wind field over upstate NY and eastern ON as far west as Toronto to near TS strength, there are echoes of Hazel embedded in this storm scenario. Would people agree that there could be the equivalent of a continuous TRW+ situation in the frontal zone west of the Jersey hills? I suspect there could be some record rainfall amounts in nw NJ and ne PA, perhaps stupendous hourly rates. Look at the moisture advection and frontal forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seawind Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 If the NHC is not going to issue tropical Storm/Hurricane warnings on land, why have they issued them for the Atlantic Ocean almost up to Nova Scotia? THAT is very confusing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12z euro is coming in further east and north through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 if these rainfall totals verify in the metro area should be little concern for inland flooding so the main impact is wind damage and coastal flooding http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/zoom/Rainfall_Days_1-5.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12z euro is coming in further east and north through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah the euro should be north of its 00z run. Its about 100 miles east, so i would expect a landfall furth north on the NJ coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What a bomb on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What a bomb on the Euro. I'll say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Comes in just south of Sandy hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Worst-case scenario for NYC on the Euro, yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Comes in just south of Sandy hook. where ever it directly comes in there will be a radius of miles where conditions will become calm near the center- a false sense of security for a couple of hours then the other side slams in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro looks like it's time to consider the worst case scenario becoming a reality with this storm...makes landfall around Manasquan in the 950's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Worst-case scenario for NYC on the Euro, yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think 70W is the dividing line as to whether it hits the NJ shore. If it goes east of there, a hit on Long Island is more likely. If it stays west of 70, NJ is the most likely landfall point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Good to see the global models come into a great agreement. I'm excited for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Worst-case scenario for NYC on the Euro, yay! Haha, here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm officially scared!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12z euro update..we are still screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12 Z ECM @ 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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