IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12z GGEM is further northeast. 948 low about to hit eastern LI. Again with the model mayhem. o_O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12z GGEM is further northeast. 948 low about to hit eastern LI. Wondering if there might be more to this NE trend on some of the models today. Euro will be important coming up (as always). Again, huge difference in impact between storm going south of you vs. north/east of you. Still time for adjustments to the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12z GGEM is further northeast. 948 low about to hit eastern LI. I think we will see this back and forth north south movement on the models all the way up to landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GGEM tends to be progressive, as well as the nogaps. Be very careful how you interpret what they could do as far as trend setting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The rex block looks pretty strong on WV. i cant really see Her making a straight B line from off the NC/SC coast towards SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 in my humble opinion, GFS/NAM/EURO combo should do the trick inside 72 hrs, especially since the GFS came around to the euro these past few days (the operational that is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 the second best model shifts south toward the best model and you think there could be a NE trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 model divergence after 24 hours of convergence....ugh...gotta be kidding me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wondering if there might be more to this NE trend on some of the models today. Euro will be important coming up (as always). Again, huge difference in impact between storm going south of you vs. north/east of you. Still time for adjustments to the track. It's really only nogaps, ggem has been a bit more n and e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I have a question and would appreciate it if some could explain. Since there r sharp cutoffs to the heaviest precip on the models, and it looks like a dry slot will develop over much of the area, will the strongest winds be able to mix down to the surface NE of landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wondering if there might be more to this NE trend on some of the models today. Euro will be important coming up (as always). Again, huge difference in impact between storm going south of you vs. north/east of you. Still time for adjustments to the track. The SREF and GFS ticked further south from their previous runs, so probably not. Probably just normal model waffling before a storm arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 model divergence after 24 hours of convergence....ugh...gotta be kidding me... nah man, the divergence as you say are outliners. the best models are clustered to a delmarva to NJ landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I have a question and would appreciate it if some could explain. Since there r sharp cutoffs to the heaviest precip on the models, and it looks like a dry slot will develop over much of the area, will the strongest winds be able to mix down to the surface NE of landfall? That's a good question. I think winds will still be able to mix down without much help of precip, even some of the lightest precip could mix down some strong winds. But the winds in general, without any mixing should be at least 40-50mph sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The lowest pressure with a non-tropical cyclone in the North Atlantic was 914 mb back in January 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 model divergence after 24 hours of convergence....ugh...gotta be kidding me... AT least I correctly predicted one thing. I strongly favor the northern solution. Most Left turning noresters make the turn further north than expected. The snowiccane was a good 30-50 miles northeast. So was 12/26/2010 when DC-BAL geot screwed. I also remember the 4/23 storm this year closed low going way further northeast. So toss the furthest south model, sorry GFS/Euro/DT goodbye. GGEM sounds reasonable I'll take the second furthest north model of the UK GGEM GFS and EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 nah man, the divergence as you say are outliners. the best models are clustered to a delmarva to NJ landfall. Ukie nogaps and canadian...three isnt an outlier its a split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 AT least I correctly predicted one thing. I strongly favor the northern solution. Most Left turning noresters make the turn further north than expected. The snowiccane was a good 30-50 miles northeast. So was 12/26/2010 when DC-BAL geot screwed. I also remember the 4/23 storm this year closed low going way further northeast. So toss the furthest south model, sorry GFS/Euro/DT goodbye. GGEM sounds reasonable I'll take the second furthest north model of the UK GGEM GFS and EURO. Whatta bout 2/10/10 and 12/19/09? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 AT least I correctly predicted one thing. I strongly favor the northern solution. Most Left turning noresters make the turn further north than expected. The snowiccane was a good 30-50 miles northeast. So was 12/26/2010 when DC-BAL geot screwed. I also remember the 4/23 storm this year closed low going way further northeast. So toss the furthest south model, sorry GFS/Euro/DT goodbye. GGEM sounds reasonable I'll take the second furthest north model of the UK GGEM GFS and EURO. Euro should be telling. If it shifts markedly NE there could be the start of something. If it doesn't shift that much, to me that says it's a blip. 12z tropical models also still show a south NJ hit for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ukie nogaps and canadian...three isnt an outlier its a split the worst models.....doesnt equate to a split imo. if some of the more reliable ones have a more NE landfall then yea, a split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS ensembles don't show any north shift at all-still a central NJ slam. Gotta think the remarkable consistency here between the GFS and Euro on a big hit there plus the tropical models says it's by far the most likely outcome. But there's still a good amount of time for a shift. The huge mass of this says to me that it won't turn on a dime back to the west-it should be more of a gradual turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Other than the fact that this storm formed in the gulf instead of the Atlantic, notice how Agnes also curved NW before making landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS ensembles don't show any north shift at all-still a central NJ slam. Gotta think the remarkable consistency here between the GFS and Euro on a big hit there plus the tropical models says it's by far the most likely outcome. But there's still a good amount of time for a shift. The huge mass of this says to me that it won't turn on a dime back to the west-it should be more of a gradual turn. Either way NYC is going to get hit. Just look at the windfield on the 12z gfs. Doesn't matter if it hits ACY or KBLM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Either way NYC is going to get hit. Just look at the windfield on the 12z gfs. Doesn't matter if it hits ACY or KBLM Anyone have a link to a good site to see windfield graphics for various points in time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Either way NYC is going to get hit. Just look at the windfield on the 12z gfs. Doesn't matter if it hits ACY or KBLM and its arguable that if its ACY we get that LLJ nose of extremely high winds near 100kts at 900mb. BLM landfall would shift that towards CT and RI/SE Mass coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That's a good question. I think winds will still be able to mix down without much help of precip, even some of the lightest precip could mix down some strong winds. But the winds in general, without any mixing should be at least 40-50mph sustained. I would think the winds would mix down more efficiently if we were in a dry slot versus heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Good call http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2012/10/we-get-results-hurricane-warnings-for.html?spref=tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Good call http://meteorologica...r.html?spref=tw Agreed. Many more people will take this seriously with Hurricane Warnings, than with High Wind Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 it was very irresponsible of them (even if they were trying to do the right thing) to try and do that in the first place...lay people cannot possibly understand the complexity and seriousness of this situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Good call http://meteorologica...r.html?spref=tw so expect Hurricane warnings or TS warnings at 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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