tmagan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Speaking of tropical cyclones, look at the one heading toward North Vietnam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This will probably be the most powerfully extreme noreaster ever to affect the area with damaging gust to 80 mph and storm surge. The fact this will be former hurricane and will be in fact getting stronger is scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS ever so slightly east of 06z at 42. No major differences, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 54 hours on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NHC track looks about right; predicting a center landfall anywhere from the NC/VA boarder to Suffolk County... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What a disaster on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS takes Sandy into central NJ, slightly south than 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 925mb winds on the 12z GFS are ridiculous. at hr 57-60 were talking about 80-90kts over much of LI and CT...makes landfall around 950ish (although if someone has higher res maps its probably lower maybe 945?) in central jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 if we can mix down even 60% of 90kts were talking about 65mph sustained! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 LF at Central NJ as 948.3 mB on the 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 65 mph sustain is insane and unheard of with a noreaster. This storm should be taken very seriously. I predict landfall with this post /extratropical cyclone will be in southern NJ coast will cross near Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12z GFS surface wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FredRed Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Maue's maps has it at 936 on full res 12z GFS. https://twitter.com/...2221313/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 There could be some serious damage to the high rises if those 925mb winds mix down even a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 i bet that the result isn't very far off from what the GFS depicts....maybe slightly further south in SNJ....but those pressures might not be too far off being that she is already at 958! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 There could be some serious damage to the high rises if those 925mb winds mix down even a little. The new WTC has two or three cranes now on top of the building in preparation for the installation of the antenna. I would presume everything will be fine bc those things are beasts, but they're going to have to deal with some crazy winds as the top of the building is almost 1,400' up and the cranes reach up to 1,600-1,700'. The top of the ESB will probably see 100 MPH sustained as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The new WTC has two or three cranes now on top of the building in preparation for the installation of the antenna. I would presume everything will be fine bc those things are beasts, but they're going to have to deal with some crazy winds as the top of the building is almost 1,400' up and the cranes reach up to 1,600-1,700'. The top of the ESB will probably see 100 MPH sustained as well. Yea, my office is on the 50th floor and we routinely get some pretty serious, building-shaking gusts on a normal winter day. Luckily they just installed new windows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12z Ukie looks like landfall near NYC.958. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 i bet that the result isn't very far off from what the GFS depicts....maybe slightly further south in SNJ....but those pressures might not be too far off being that she is already at 958! Its interesting that the models seem to be initializing with a weaker Sandy then is actually see on the current observations. This being said I believe the models have done a decent job on such a rare and complex setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Maue's maps has it at 936 on full res 12z GFS. https://twitter.com/...2221313/photo/1 that kinda has the center of the low at the same latitude as the pa/md state line.... which would put it south of philly on the jersey shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 storm surge will be immense along LI sound, lower NYC, staten island, and areas along the CNJ coast like the amboys and sandy hook. winds near the center is obv a huge concern. rainfall, doesnt look too bad from newark, nj and points to the N and NE but major flooding potential from points to the S and SW....esp as you head towards the delmarva. im concerned for areas along the south shore, along the belt pkwy heading to the verrazano br, staten island, and amboys. that area closest to the NE quadrant of the eye will bear the brunt of storm surge and winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Its interesting that the models seem to be initializing with a weaker Sandy then is actually see on the current observations. This being said I believe the models have done a decent job on such a rare and complex setup. So much of the meteorological community has never really seen something like this before, so we are really in unchartered territory. That being said, I have a hard time imagining a situation where sandy does not drop at least 10-15mb when she phases with s/w coming in from the central US. If thats the case were talking about mid 940's. Unprecedented for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 There could be some serious damage to the high rises if those 925mb winds mix down even a little. Henry Margusity @Accu_Henry For NYC, if the storm goes on the GFS track, windows will be blown out of the top floors of buildings. (Oct 25) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS simply apocalyptic, notice advection of current core thickness signature (582 dm) into NJ coast. Notice also the westward advection of very high thickness values into n NJ and even e half PA, implies mega-heavy rainfalls, 6 inch per hour rainfall rates could verify in this onslaught. Agree with previous posters on wind speed potentials, if this verifies, and storm surge would have to be at a historic high. This will come on very fast later Monday in this scenario. This would play out like spread-out cat-3 landfall and location is worst case scenario. If GEM supports watch for it to signal explosive transition more explicitly. Rotation around this kind of setup would have to be violent given the height falls underway. Thousand year return storm is my assessment of that model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12z Nogaps is a SNE hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 those that are wondering why the rainfall is modeled to be heaviest on the W and SW side of sandy, take a look on the WV loops. you can see how the eastern trough has began phasing with sandy causing dry air to wrap into the S and E side. this is a complex system, not your typical tropical cyclone. eventually when sandy gets captured the E and NE quadrant will dry out to a certain excent. there will be rain but very scattered and isolated. i wouldnt doubt the possibility of isolated tornadoes here while areas on the W and SW quadrant will experience heavy persistent rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 my eyes my be going crazy but isnt that a position marker inland before it moves ne? That's the NHC track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12z GGEM is further northeast. 948 low about to hit eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 That's the NHC track Didnt realize that sorry...Deleted my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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