SACRUS Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 nam looks like sandy hook landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 nam looks like sandy hook landfall Yep. 958 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yep. 958 low. The NAM initialized the pressure way too high though. It initialized the pressure at 969 mb when the pressure is currently 957 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 the nam is not a very good model for TC forecasting very true but at least it has been consistent and pretty much follows the other models at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow not much rain for much of NNJ/NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow not much rain for much of NNJ/NYC I am trying to figure out why. Are these models correct with the rain amounts or are the models struggling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 precip maps? I've heard others say that the best rains will be W and S of the center, so no surprise if the NAM is showing less N and E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 my best guess for landfall is ACY. have to give the euro ensemble mean a lot of weight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Most of the models have consistently been pushing most of the steadier heavier rain to our south and west and giving us 2-3" which would at least lessen the inland flooding impact. We'll still be dealing with the wind and surge/coastal flooding with a track like this. I am trying to figure out why. Are these models correct with the rain amounts or are the models struggling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 FWIW - Antique power grid + Irene last year + This monster now = If you live on LI, you better prepare to be without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Pretty sharp cut-off with the precipitation. NAM has been consistently showing the sharpest cut-off of any model: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navvet8992 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 my best guess for landfall is ACY. have to give the euro ensemble mean a lot of weight Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wind will be a big deal here...but the storm will be missing for many areas what a typical tropical cyclone would do...such as wind AND torrential rain N/NE of center....and with the wind field so expansive I think the areas south west IN the heaviest rain will see the worst of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The heaviest flooding rains will be in the West, Southwest of Sandy's track...So if she comes in through C NJ I don't think NYC would see too much rain, still 1-3 inches probably, but nothing like down SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Strongest winds would be right around the center and also on the northeast side of the storm. With forward progression, that could also slightly increase the wind on the northern side of the storm. Heaviest precip will be S & W of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Jeff Masters During September 2012, ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic coast in the 5x10° latitude-longitude box between 35 - 40°N, 65 - 75° W were 2.3°F (1.3°C) above average, according to the UK Met Office. This is the 2nd greatest departure from average for ocean temperatures in this region since reliable ocean temperature measurements began over a century ago (all-time record: 2.0°C above average in September 1947.) These unusually warm waters have persisted into October, and will enable Sandy to pull more energy from the ocean than a typical October hurricane. The warm waters will also help increase Sandy's rains, since more water vapor will evaporate into the air from a warm ocean. I expect Sandy will dump the heaviest October rains on record over a large swath of the mid-Atlantic and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Winds tend to underperform on the western side just from my experience, although we're dealing with a different animal here with a west/northwesterly track. Either way I think parts of PA could be hardest hit if it stalls and sits over them for a day and a half and they see a foot of rain in spots. Wind will be a big deal here...but the storm will be missing for many areas what a typical tropical cyclone would do...such as wind AND torrential rain N/NE of center....and with the wind field so expansive I think the areas south west IN the heaviest rain will see the worst of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 the sref mean is an ACY landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wind will be a big deal here...but the storm will be missing for many areas what a typical tropical cyclone would do...such as wind AND torrential rain N/NE of center....and with the wind field so expansive I think the areas south west IN the heaviest rain will see the worst of the storm The west side will have a lot more rain, but less wind and much less surge danger. The east side will have more convective-type rain but much more wind and the threat of surge. I'd much rather take being to the left of the storm than on the right. The surge with these model tracks I suspect will be very severe. NAM looks like a Belmar landfall and progresses it up to maybe EWR by 0z. That's right around the time of high tide for much of the south shore, and we would have screaming south winds at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 WSI RPM much farther south, Delmarva landfall then into VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM looks like a Belmar landfall and progresses it up to maybe EWR by 0z. That's right around the time of high tide for much of the south shore, and we would have screaming south winds at that point. That's going to be the killer on the coastal flooding for Nassau, Suffolk, Kings & Queens counties. East winds piling the water up and then that piled water gets shoved onshore as winds go to the S once the storm goes inland. Bad for the S Shore of LI for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What models are causing them to do this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Given everything I'm seeing, isn't a 3 foot surged very conservative? everyone keeps talking about irresponsible NWS office forecasts well that takes the cake! 3 foot? Thats a moderate event! Watch 6-8 verify and blow Irene away and even 92 by a decent amount! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Why are they keep on shifting the cone to the south? Doesn't make any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Why are they keep on shifting the cone to the south? Doesn't make any sense. Maybe because they're using their tropical storm models, the EURO and the sense that they feel the block will keep Sandy south. So yeah, it does kind of make sense. For anyone to base their forecast for this storm on the NAM for instance would be doing it wrong IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Did anyone actually read the NHC discussion as to why the cone looks funny before bitching about it being "moved south"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Maybe because they're using their tropical storm models, the EURO and the sense that they feel the block will keep Sandy south. So yeah, it does kind of make sense. For anyone to base their forecast for this storm on the NAM for instance would be doing it wrong IMO The euro isn't that far south. Euro ensembles are near A.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Did anyone actually read the NHC discussion as to why the cone looks funny before bitching about it being "moved south"? Yes I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yes I have. Yes in this situation we should not draw a straight line from SE to NW but rather a curved line which would make landfall around Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Atlantic City ordered to be evacuated at 4:00 pm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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