MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 How strong would the winds be here on LI if we are looking at the 00z ECMWF run? On the ECMWF graphics on Accuweather.com Professional, they have 10 meter winds of around 65-75 kts. for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm honestly schocked at the limited amount of watches out there (and the nature of them). I know these guys are the best out there, but after Irene, I feel the public is way more likely to 'poo poo' this when, in reality, it's likely to be a much bigger issue... Is it b/c of the time frame and guidelines of the NWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On the ECMWF graphics on Accuweather.com Professional, they have 10 meter winds of around 65-75 kts. for LI. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Not liking how it's already deepening so quickly, it's already sub 960 mb per recon, I know it might go again but still and it's already a massive system, 450 miles of TS force winds is crazy already, 100 miles of hurricane force winds, wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Sandy down to 957 on the latest pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 There's still time for them to change their tune as the storm closes in. It seems like they are basing this off some model guidance showing winds not being as bad away from the coast: LAND WIND...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z/27 NAM AND GFS TRANSFER INDICATORS AS WELL AS THE LATEST TCM WINDS...WE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. APPEARS THE STRONGEST WIND WILL BE COASTAL AND MONDAY. TOOK A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH W IF I95 SINCE THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING NOT TOO MUCH TRANSFER. HOWEVER...THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCS/NW NJ RIDGES MAY END UP IN ANY FUTURE WATCH EXPANSION AND OR EVENTUAL WARNING/ADVISORY. Not saying this will be the case but I've seen many tropical systems completely underperform wind wise. I have to agree with you guys. The wording by Mt. Holly on the high wind warning is borderline irresponsible IMO. Given that you are at the least supposed to have a 50 KT extratropical cyclone slamming into central Jersey, to put in you wording all the way down to the coast 35-45 MPH sustained winds is horrendous. Makes it sound like a fairly run of the mill storm when that is not the case in any way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Let me underscore the importance of using the basics to determine the likely effects. Even a sub 975mb low with an extremely strong HP to the north will bring very strong winds. We have had in the past much weaker lows well to our south result in strong winds. Just think they are being to dismissive which is odd considering they hyped Irene a decaying storm with not nearly the mechanics this storm has in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 the highest 850mb wind on the 6z GFS at KEWR is 98 - anyone have a chart of surface winds vs. 850mb ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 the highest 850mb wind on the 6z GFS at KEWR is 98 - anyone have a chart of surface winds vs. 850mb ??? Highest 850mb winds on the 6z GFS over KISP are at 119mph! Definitely favorable for 80-100mph wind gusts and sustained winds 50-70mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Sandy down to 957 on the latest pass. Pretty deep, lower than expected I'd say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Sandy down to 957 on the latest pass. Most everyone on the other regional threads are saying Sandy is bombing tropically... which means that when this thing REALLY gets going subtropically and REALLY bombs out..... I have to wonder if the models this week that had the pressure down in the 920s and 930s were correct and we really do get a storm with that kind of pressure up here. I mean, it's only another 18 mb til we get to 939 and this thing just dropped 10 in the past few hours. This is downright scary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Text output for KISP at hour 66 06z gfs pretty impressive. http://vortex.plymou...el&size=640x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GooGoo Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Can you imagine the impacts on NYC's east side as wind pours westward thru Long Island Sound? Water is going to pile up in the western part of the Sound. LGA airport, Randalls Island, City Island, Eastern Bronx may be under water. The East River and Manhattans east side may be very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Can you imagine the impacts on NYC's east side as wind pours westward thru Long Island Sound? Water is going to pile up in the western part of the Sound. LGA airport, Randalls Island, City Island, Eastern Bronx may be under water. The East River and Manhattans east side may be very bad. MEh, might be a bit overdone...east side of manhattan above the 20sish i believe has decent elevation and shouldnt flood too bad...Upton is called for at most a 3 foot surge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Can you imagine the impacts on NYC's east side as wind pours westward thru Long Island Sound? Water is going to pile up in the western part of the Sound. LGA airport, Randalls Island, City Island, Eastern Bronx may be under water. The East River and Manhattans east side may be very bad. I live on the East Side... right near York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On the ECMWF graphics on Accuweather.com Professional, they have 10 meter winds of around 65-75 kts. for LI. What about in SENY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I live on the East Side... right near York. Yes but Eastern manhattan has elevation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Pretty deep, lower than expected I'd say in a write up by mt holly the other day they mentioned the stronger sandy is the slower the phase will occur. perhaps this means a further north track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 in a write up by mt holly the other day they mentioned the stronger sandy is the slower the phase will occur. perhaps this means a further north track 000 URNT12 KWBC 271320 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 27/12:52:53Z B. 28 deg 47 min N 076 deg 27 min W C. NA D. 62 kt E. 195 deg 55 nm F. 312 deg 68 kt G. 217 deg 14 nm H. 962 mb I. 13 C / 3668 m J. 13 C / 3652 K. 8 / NA L. SPIRAL BANDING M. NA N. 1234 / NA O. 1/ 1 P. NOAA2 1418A SANDY OB 29 MAX FL WIND 68 KT SW QUAD 12:49:37Z MAX FL TEMP 14 C 217 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR SONDE SPLASHED WITH WINDS 025/16 KTS She's fluctuating a bit. I don't think we're gonna see a 50mile shift at this point. Safe bet to say somewhere from cape may- sandy hook LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I really think NHC has to pull the trigger on the watches later on for the area. The public will be clueless when they only see flood watches and high wind watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 FWIW, the 12z NAM looks to be a tad bit west compared to 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2012/10/26/bloomberg-briefs-city-on-hurricane-sandy-plans-no-evacuations-ordered/ Mayor Michael Bloomberg opted not to call for a massive evacuation of low-lying areas of New York City as he did last year before Tropical Storm Irene. But at a briefing Friday afternoon he said city officials would continue to monitor Hurricane Sandy as it barrels up the East Coast. He's not taking the storm that seriously.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Given everything I'm seeing, isn't a 3 foot surged very conservative? MEh, might be a bit overdone...east side of manhattan above the 20sish i believe has decent elevation and shouldnt flood too bad...Upton is called for at most a 3 foot surge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Bloomberg told people to expect to go about their normal business on monday/tuesday yesterday. I'm concerned we're going to have people trying to get back from work monday night in this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM is completely dry through 0z tomorrow night FWIW, the 12z NAM looks to be a tad bit west compared to 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Bloomberg told people to expect to go about their normal business on monday/tuesday yesterday. I'm concerned we're going to have people trying to get back from work monday night in this.. This is what happens when politicians try to be meteorologists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Somewhat less phased and stronger on new nam vs 6z, slighty further east as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Really delayed the onset of the precip. We don't see anything until early Monday morning Somewhat less phased and stronger on new nam vs 6z, slighty further east as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 the nam is not a very good model for TC forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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