SnowGoose69 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I feel like if you really want the worst of the weather inland, you need to be on the SW side under that deform band. Most deep lows over the oceans in the northern hemisphere will exhibit a wind max in the S-SW quadrant roughly 190-210 degrees from the center. This can often occur in lows coming ashore or over land as well, so its likely somewhere in that quadrant could see winds stronger than some places east and north of the low center in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 FWIW, the GFS shows 944 mb at FRG and JFK. Soundings, I assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 0z Nogaps slams into central Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wouldn't a landfall in the delmarva have less of a impact for the NYC metro area????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 0z GGEM. Landfall is over Brooklyn,NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 N-NE winds for most of LI and the 5 boroughs through the worst part of the storm on this track, this is much better than the track well into the Delmarva where we would be E-SE...still could be bad news for Nrn Queens and LI but Connecticut and southern LI would fare a bit better. Eventually winds do come around to the south once the low moves inland but its hard to say if the surge potential might be lower at that point. The N-NE winds typically also have a bit less propensity for wind damage as we've discussed before. The fetch/wave setup is what I'm concerned about. Even with a northerly wind I would think water builds up for a long time prior to any landfall in advance of the storm. A track south of here would be hugely damaging to much of the south shore Long Island I would think. We really want to get it north of here to keep us in northerly winds the longest. Even so, the forementioned wave/water setup could cause a lot of flooding regardless. What a mess. The Sound shores look to take a beating reagrdless of the track due to the easterly flow. We still have tomorrow and Sunday to change a lot, so don't think of anything tonight as a final track. However, the consensus setting up is pretty scary for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 0z GEFS depicts a 959 low heading west towards central Jersey. 959 on the ensembles? That's unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 925mb winds on the 0z GFS at 72hr. 70-90kt winds over much LI and CT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 0z GEFS depicts a 959 low heading west towards central Jersey. 959 on the ensembles? That's unheard of. Not anymore. Think we can narrow landfall to between Atlantic City to NYC somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 I still think the gfs is a little too far north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 FWIW, the GFS shows 944 mb at FRG and JFK. That converts to 27.88 inches. Almost certainly would be a record for both locations. The record lowest pressure for Central Park was 28.14 inches (952.9 mb) during a blizzard in March 1914. They were very close to the center of circulation during that storm because there was rain to the east. I would have hated it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow, really really hoping they built the beaches up good for this, because they're about to be obliterated and then some. Looks like a good consensus building for a south of NYC/LI track, which would pile-drive a wall of water all through this area. Euro will be telling as always in about an hour. Remember, south of you/north of you will be quite determining in terms of what kinds of water/surge impact you get, especially on the NJ shore/south shore LI and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 The gfes mean is a worst case track for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Guys wouldn't a landfall in the delmarva region mean a lot less impacts for the NYC metro?? I might be wrong but I cant imagine it making landfall in say VA and us getting hurricane force winds this far North I would think we need a landfall in central jersy or maybe as far South as southern jersy but I would think anything South of that would have less impacts up here again im no expert jist trying to get info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow, really really hoping they built the beaches up good for this, because they're about to be obliterated and then some. Looks like a good consensus building for a south of NYC/LI track, which would pile-drive a wall of water all through this area. Euro will be telling as always in about an hour. Remember, south of you/north of you will be quite determining in terms of what kinds of water/surge impact you get, especially on the NJ shore/south shore LI and NYC. Track and trajectory as depicted on ooz runs of gfs, nam, and Canadian bring more of an easterly component to the wind field rather than south or southeast and ,therefore, would lessen tidal flooding concerns for NYC and south shore of LI, except far eastern sections. A further south track would actually increase tidal flood potential for those same areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Track and trajectory as depicted on ooz runs of gfs, nam, and Canadian bring more of an easterly component to the wind field rather than south or southeast and ,therefore, would lessen tidal flooding concerns for NYC and south shore of LI, except far eastern sections. A further south track would actually increase tidal flood potential for those same areas. these tracks show prolonged southerly and SE winds for most of long island, not sure what you are talking about. any due east winds will be very brief unless this thing threads a weird needle and goes due west for a time. otherwise we are looking at winds in the SE to NE variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 these tracks show prolonged southerly and SE winds for most of long island, not sure what you are talking about. any due east winds will be very brief unless this thing threads a weird needle and goes due west for a time. otherwise we are looking at winds in the SE to NE variety. Look at the model depiction detail of wind direction and time for the respective ooz run models and you'll see "what I'm talking about". It's not only due east but north side winds as well. The tracks do not favor prolonged southerly and SE winds, except perhaps for extreme eastern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Look at the model depiction detail of wind direction and time for the respective ooz run models and you'll see "what I'm talking about". It's not only due east but north side winds as well. The tracks do not favor prolonged southerly and SE winds, except perhaps for extreme eastern sections. you're wrong. the tracks into central nj have prolongs S and SE winds for long island. and i mentioned the northerly component that is possible with a more north track. what i was stressing was that i think due east winds are very unlikely for an extended period of time given the type of approach the storm will be taking, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 you're wrong. the tracks into central nj have prolongs S and SE winds for long island. and i mentioned the northerly component that is possible with a more north track. what i was stressing was that i think due east winds are very unlikely for an extended period of time given the type of approach the storm will be taking, You obviously haven't looked at the wind field detail depiction for the 00z model suite. That's fine. Not worth discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Track and trajectory as depicted on ooz runs of gfs, nam, and Canadian bring more of an easterly component to the wind field rather than south or southeast and ,therefore, would lessen tidal flooding concerns for NYC and south shore of LI, except far eastern sections. A further south track would actually increase tidal flood potential for those same areas. The storm itself will bring a lot of water, so long as NW winds aren't trying to push it back to sea, and even so there will likely be a notable surge. The low central pressures and fetch by themselves will raise the water levels. The SE winds just help in bringing that inland and piling the water (east/north of the track also means more wind due to the pressure gradient). Any track over or south of your location would be very bad in terms of surge. North of you would be a lot better but would still bring heightened water levels, particularly for LI Sound locations. But north also means more rain, so take that with something of a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The storm itself will bring a lot of water, so long as NW winds aren't trying to push it back to sea, and even so there will likely be a notable surge. The low central pressures and fetch by themselves will raise the water levels. The SE winds just help in bringing that inland and piling the water (w\east/north of the track also means more wind due to the pressure gradient). Any track over or south of your location would be very bad in terms of surge. North of you would be a lot better but would still bring heightened water levels, particularly for LI Sound locations. But north also means more rain, so take that with something of a grain of salt. Agree, but I was referring to tidal flood and surge elements and the ooz runs of the gfs, nam, and Canadian cut down on that as the track approach trajectory is more from east / southeast versus southeast, and further - the track parallels and comes very close to the south shore of LI. A somewhat more southern track placement with same trajectory would result in higher tidal flood and surge potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro basically landfalls in Cape May moving from east to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Agree, but I was referring to tidal flood and surge elements and the ooz runs of the gfs, nam, and Canadian cut down on that as the track approach trajectory is more from east / southeast versus southeast, and further - the track parallels and comes very close to the south shore of LI. A somewhat more southern track placement with same trajectory would result in higher tidal flood and surge potential. And just like that, Euro renders all this discussion about "maybe just south" totally moot. Horrendous impact for all of us without question, yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Politicians should be mentioning about how long people will be without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 And just like that, Euro renders all this discussion about "maybe just south" totally moot. Horrendous impact for all of us without question, yet again. It then stalls over DC for a long time so we would get a long duration of SE winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 You know, I'm not sure the strongest winds really will be at the core. We'll see. I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro track actually resulted in the strongest winds for our area, based on where the strongest 925mb winds were located on that GFS plot relative to the storm's center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It then stalls over DC for a long time so we would get a long duration of SE winds what about the H2O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 You know, I'm not sure the strongest winds really will be at the core. We'll see. I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro track actually resulted in the strongest winds for our area, based on where the strongest 925mb winds were located on that GFS plot relative to the storm's center. Would not be surprised at all if strongest winds are well to the north of the "landfall"....if I had to bet some of our New England friends have a good chance at strongest gusts along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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