blizzardof09 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NHC 11 PM update has Sabdy cutting across Delaware Bay Early Tuesday http://www.nhc.noaa....?large#contents map just doesnt seem right and think a landfall is more likely to be near central NJ and not delaware bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChineseFood4Snow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 And will have taken a hook to get there. A hundred years from now people will falsely believe that's how Sandy Hook got its name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 map just doesnt seem right and think a landfall is more likely to be near central NJ and not delaware bay. Lets see where the rest of the 00z guidance goes but suspect they'll adjust landfall north if guidance continues to consolidate on a a hit between cape may and LI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Sadly, Sandy Hook is very vulnerable to storms such as this one. In fact, it was an island for a period of time after a storm cut out a piece of the peninsula. I'm hoping that a similar situation does not occur this go around. A hundred years from now people will falsely believe that's how Sandy Hook got its name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 map just doesnt seem right and think a landfall is more likely to be near central NJ and not delaware bay. What model is it relying on for a Delaware Bay hit?? Wouldnt you think with the Euro and the GFS being north of there, their depiction would follow suit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I just got the higher resolution in and I am afraid that is 953mb at 72 hrs near Sandy Hook, not 958mb. NYC Harbor @ 958 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 A hundred years from now people will falsely believe that's how Sandy Hook got its name. Either that, or, theyll realize thats why it is no more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Lets see where the rest of the 00z guidance goes but suspect they'll adjust landfall north if guidance continues to consolidate on a a hit between cape may and LI... The NHC forecast map doesn't really show the exact forecast landfall position. It's merely connecting two dots with a straight line. I believe that we're thinking the hurricane will continue northward from the 8pm Monday position and then curve through maybe Ocean / Monmouth Co. before reaching the 8pm Tuesday position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I just got the higher resolution in and I am afraid that is 953mb at 72 hrs near Sandy Hook, not 958mb. and in reality will probably be around 965-970 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What model is it relying on for a Delaware Bay hit?? Wouldnt you think with the Euro and the GFS being north of there, their depiction would follow suit? The new WSI RPM model has 944mb pretty close to Delaware bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On the 21Z SREFs, you can really see the slight divergence with the individual members in the mean. There are two distinct Low Pressures in the mean, which would indicate some ensemble members that would take the slightly north GFS/NAM track into C NJ and NYC while some that take the slightly further south ECM track into S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah 2 to 3" over 48 hours isn't all that bad for NNJ/NYC on north. Atlantic City meanwhile gets over 6" 960 at 63hr+. heaviest qpf stays on the W and SW area of the cyclone, delmarva flooded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS looks to have come south. perhaps BLM - Sandy Hook landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS looks well west at 60 200mi off Virgina capes at 960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 0z GFS also looks to make LF around Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 72hrs appears around C NJ or so, so hard to tell with all the isobars. Just crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 0z GFS also looks to make LF around Sandy Hook. Not much differnet from 18z. Less of a hook back despite westerly look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 951 low crashing into NYC on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 0z GFS also looks to make LF around Sandy Hook. Yup, nearly identical to NAM. We have American consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah 2 to 3" over 48 hours isn't all that bad for NNJ/NYC on north. Atlantic City meanwhile gets over 6" Thank goodness. The Delmarva peninsula is going to get absolutely hammered with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 72hrs appears around C NJ or so, so hard to tell with all the isobars. Just crazy! Looks like landfall right over or just south of Sandy Hook. Ominous consensus mounting for NYC bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Not sure I saw that before, but is that a 582 dm contour on that ridge of Newfoundland there? Christ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So it would appear we are looking at a Monday early evening landfall give or take a few hours? wow 949 mb surface pressure at EWR, Monday 7pm Looks like landfall right over or just south of Sandy Hook. Ominous consensus mounting for NYC bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So it would appear we are looking at a Monday early evening landfall give or take a few hours? GFS would imply landfall around 8pm or so on monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It's also much faster for our area in terms of getting the rain out of here shortly after midnight. Like the NAM most amounts are in the 2-4" range with more south and west. The wind and surge would be the real issue rather than excessive rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On the phone, anyone have the QPF totals for NNJ on the 00z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 N-NE winds for most of LI and the 5 boroughs through the worst part of the storm on this track, this is much better than the track well into the Delmarva where we would be E-SE...still could be bad news for Nrn Queens and LI but Connecticut and southern LI would fare a bit better. Eventually winds do come around to the south once the low moves inland but its hard to say if the surge potential might be lower at that point. The N-NE winds typically also have a bit less propensity for wind damage as we've discussed before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On the phone, anyone have the QPF totals for NNJ on the 00z GFS? Yes. This is through hour 123 when precipitation has stopped: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I feel like if you really want the worst of the weather inland, you need to be on the SW side under that deform band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 FWIW, the GFS shows 944 mb at FRG and JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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