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hurricane sandy thread #2


forkyfork

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I'm wondering if due to the longevity of the storm, that even if landfall misses out with high tide we can still get a bad surge regardless afterwards or before. This doesn't seem like a quick in-out storm like Irene and this should be a problem for a couple of tide cycles.

It will be over multiple high tide cycles, but it will be interesting to see how the peak values actually work out at

different locations.

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Saw this statement put out by NWS Upton this evening. Gave me the chills....

NOUS41 KOKX 262351 CCA

PNSOKX

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-281000-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

750 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION FOR THE UPCOMING COASTAL STORM...

A DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSE TO THE TRI

STATE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE AREA COULD BE

FELT AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. NOW IS

THE TIME TO START PLANNING FOR THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

STAY INFORMED BY MONITORING THE LATEST HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM

ADVISORIES IN ADDITION TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOCAL

FORECASTS. LISTEN TO RADIO AND TELEVISION REPORTS...AS WELL AS NOAA

WEATHER RADIO TO GET THE LATEST ADVISORY UPDATES.

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. FIND

OUT IF YOU LIVE WITHIN A STORM SURGE EVACUATION ZONE. KNOW THE

LOCATION OF DESIGNATED OFFICIAL SHELTERS AND LEARN THE MOST DIRECT

SAFE ROUTE TO GET THERE. MOST SHELTERS WILL NOT ALLOW PETS...AND

SOME SHELTERS HAVE FACILITIES FOR THOSE WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...SO TAKE

THESE INTO CONSIDERATION. ADDITIONALLY...KNOW YOUR EVACUATION ROUTES

IN ADVANCE. MUCH OF THIS INFORMATION MAY BE FOUND AT YOUR LOCAL TOWN

HALL...OR ON THE INTERNET AT YOUR COUNTY'S OFFICE OF EMERGENCY

MANAGEMENT WEBSITE.

LISTEN CAREFULLY TO LOCAL OFFICIALS AND EVACUATE THE AREA IF TOLD TO

DO SO. IF YOU DO NOT EVACUATE TO AN OFFICIAL SHELTER...YOU MAY

CONSIDER STAYING AT A FRIEND'S OR RELATIVE'S HOME OUT OF THE

EVACUATION ZONE. LEAVE LOW LYING OR COASTAL AREAS...AS WELL AS

OFFSHORE ISLANDS. THESE ARE THE LOCATIONS MOST PRONE TO STORM SURGE.

STORM SURGE IS THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF A STORM SUCH AS THIS ONE.

THE SURGE IS A DOME OF WATER THAT COMES ACROSS THE COAST AS THE

STORM MAKES LANDFALL. IF YOU LIVE CLOSE TO THE COAST IN A MOBILE

HOME YOU SHOULD EVACUATE TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER...EVEN IF YOU

ARE NOT IN A STORM SURGE PRONE AREA.

SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS

STORM. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING TO HEAD TO HIGHER

GROUND IF YOU LIVE NEAR FLOOD PRONE RIVERS AND STREAMS.

IF EVACUATION IS NOT REQUIRED OR RECOMMENDED...STAY AT HOME IF YOUR

HOUSE IS STURDY AND ON HIGH GROUND.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR A RELATIVELY LONG

DURATION OF TIME. BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF PROPERTY DAMAGE

AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POWER OUTAGES.

MAKE SURE YOU HAVE THE FOLLOWING SUPPLIES...

OBTAIN A PORTABLE...BATTERY OPERATED RADIO ALONG WITH A FRESH

SUPPLY OF BATTERIES. A RADIO WILL BE ONE OF YOUR MOST USEFUL

SOURCES OF INFORMATION.

OBTAIN SEVERAL FLASHLIGHTS WITH FRESH BATTERIES. USE OF CANDLES

FOR LIGHTING IS NOT RECOMMENDED FOR SAFETY REASONS.

HAVE ENOUGH EXTRA BATTERIES TO LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THERE MAY BE

NO ELECTRICITY AFTER THE STORM.

HAVE A FULL TANK OF GASOLINE IN YOUR AUTOMOBILE. NEVER LET YOUR

VEHICLE GAS TANK BE LESS THAN HALF FULL DURING A STORM LIKE THIS.

ELECTRICALLY OPERATED GAS PUMPS MAY FAIL DURING THE STORM.

OBTAIN CANNED GOODS AND NON PERISHABLE FOODS. THERE MAY BE NO

ELECTRICITY OR GAS AFTER THE STORM...SO STORE PACKAGED FOODS WHICH

CAN BE PREPARED WITHOUT COOKING AND NEED NO REFRIGERATION. REFILL

NEEDED PRESCRIPTION MEDICATIONS.

OBTAIN CONTAINERS FOR DRINKING WATER. HAVE CLEAN...AIR TIGHT

CONTAINERS TO STORE A SUFFICIENT WATER SUPPLY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

THE WATER SUPPLY WILL POSSIBLY BE INTERRUPTED OR CONTAMINATED.

OBTAIN MATERIALS FOR PROTECTING GLASS OPENINGS. HAVE SHUTTERS OR

LUMBER FOR PROTECTING LARGE WINDOWS AND DOORS. USE MASKING TAPE ON

SMALL WINDOWS. PUTTING TAPE ON GLASS WINDOWS OR DOORS WILL NOT

PREVENT FLYING DEBRIS FROM BREAKING THE GLASS...BUT WILL MINIMIZE

THE SPREADING AND SHATTERING OF GLASS IF THE WINDOW DOES BREAK.

HAVE MATERIALS FOR EMERGENCY REPAIRS. YOUR INSURANCE POLICY MAY

COVER THE COST OF MATERIALS USED IN TEMPORARY REPAIRS...SO KEEP

ALL RECEIPTS. THESE WILL ALSO BE HELPFUL FOR ANY INCOME TAX

DEDUCTIONS.

FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY...MOOR YOUR BOAT SECURELY OR MOVE IT TO

SAFE SHELTER.

FINALLY...DONT FORGET TO BRING PETS INDOORS...AND SECURE OUTDOOR

OBJECTS IF NOT BRINGING THEM INDOORS AS WELL.

DISCUSS STORM PREPAREDNESS WITH YOUR FAMILY. SHARE YOUR IDEAS WITH

FRIENDS...NEIGHBORS AND RELATIVES. PREPAREDNESS IS A JOB FOR

EVERYONE IN THE COMMUNITY.

FOR ADDITIONAL HELP OR ASSISTANCE ON STORM PREPAREDNESS...PLEASE

CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR LOCAL

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. IT IS BEST TO FORMULATE YOUR

PREPAREDNESS PLAN WELL IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM...DO NOT WAIT

UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE.

$$

Still debating whether I should make the trip up from DC just to see this storm in action. Looking more and more likely that I will. My friends all think I am nuts, but I am sure you all can relate.

cool.png

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Two more reasons the NHC track is baffling... Now even the dynamic models are pulling things to the North...

The HWRF is mostly ignored even for fully tropical systems in the tropics - after great initial hopes it's been a failed modeling project after the application of large amounts of money and effort.

I wouldn't even bother looking at it for Sandy.

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The early dyanamic models are still south of the other models but inching north.

If you look at the interpolated models based on Sandy's actual 0Z position they are quite a bit further south - for example, the HWRFI is into central New Jersey. Likely due to the much slower than forecast movement this afternoon.

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