CooL Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Interesting that the GFS just slingshots Sandy into the coast from the east at an increased forward speed before stalling out in PA. That could add some extra strength to the wind possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Interesting that the GFS just slingshots Sandy into the coast from the east at an increased forward speed before stalling out in PA. That could add some extra strength to the wind possibly I was thinking the same thing should add the wind to the NE quad in this case right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This is stellar. JUST moved into Byram Township, NJ from the Philly area this past Wed. No generator and don't even fully know how my house works yet --- oh, and I have a 1 year old. Stellar. I'm in the same boat. Just moved to Scotch Plains 2 weeks ago. No generator and a 2.5 year old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Thunderstorms are trying to wrap around the COC now especially on the west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 SIAP but can anyone explain why NHC is favoring this Delmarva landfall if it's south of all the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This is stellar. JUST moved into Byram Township, NJ from the Philly area this past Wed. No generator and don't even fully know how my house works yet --- oh, and I have a 1 year old. Stellar. Welcome to the neighborhood! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GEFS look near or just north of ACY? Then towards TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Welcome to the neighborhood! Thanks. Love it here --- love the lake (Forest Lake), the nature and the peace and quiet. I was also psyched for much better winter storms. This, however, I can do without. If it was just me and my wife --- fine. But throw an infant in and it gets scary and, well, annoying. That said, if everyone ends up just fine, I am excited to 'witness' this. Btw --- off topic --- but looked at and loved the Lake Mohawk area --- was just at Kroghs for lunch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Borderline ctrl NJ from what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Borderline ctrl NJ from what I see. that would be very bad for NYC/LI area for sure. surge is gonna be a big story with this storm as its gonna be over a couple high tide cycles. btw what kinds of sustained winds up here towards the metro area? from what i gather from todays model runs is sustained 40-50mph to gusts up to 75-80 mph sound right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I think another important factor is where Sandy decides to stall out which could determine who gets a lot of flooding inland And who gets hours and hours of 40-50G70-80! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 And who gets hours and hours of 40-50G70-80! at this point where would you see those winds actually occuring? im trying to get the word out the my family members who arent taking this seriously at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy has an extrap pressure of 966mb. I think its highly likely we'll see sandy with pressures sub 960 at some point close to landfall. There has got to be some amount of pressure fall associated with the phase. I'd say 955mb at landfall if I had to guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 at this point where would you see those winds actually occuring? im trying to get the word out the my family members who arent taking this seriously at all Not exactly sure, but if I lived anywhere in NJ, NYC metro, Long Island, or southern New England, especially near the coast or in higher elevations, I would prepare for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy has an extrap pressure of 966mb. I think its highly likely we'll see sandy with pressures sub 960 at some point close to landfall. There has got to be some amount of pressure fall associated with the phase. I'd say 955mb at landfall if I had to guess 955 is strong! if we got to 955mb id be shocked id say more closer to 960-965mb. bottomline though with a consensus on a landfall from cnj-atlantic city people have better start taking this seriously this weekend and get into there heads this isnt gonna be like irene but alot worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 During Irene, we lost power for days, and the winds during that storm weren't even significant. It was 7 inches of rain in 13 hours that really caused most of the trouble. Although with Sandy you might have all that rain with periods of 45-60 MPH sustained winds along with gusts up to 70-80 MPH! Most amazingly, this will be the Metro areas second tropical storm/system in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 During Irene, we lost power for days, and the winds during that storm weren't even significant. It was 7 inches of rain in 13 hours that really caused most of the trouble. Although with Sandy you might have all that rain with periods of 45-60 MPH sustained winds along with gusts up to 70-80 MPH! Most amazingly, this will be the Metro areas second tropical storm/system in a row. I actually did not loose power at all for Irene, but we barely got any wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I think most of the highest record wind gusts associated with Irene came from microbursts. Average gusts were 60-70mph for most of the region during Irene. This storm has the possibility of 70-80mph wind gusts, could the winds actually be stronger with this storm than Irene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 A NJ landfall with the pressures the models are hinting at would set the new state record for low pressure in NJ. New Jersey Atlantic City 30.98 1/27/1927 28.37 3/6/1932 Newark 31.02 12/25/1949 28.45 3/13/1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Guys (and ladies?)... let's try to keep the banter in the other thread, and leave this thread for posts specifically about Sandy. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Record low pressure at CPK was 958 mb FWIW...Lowest pressure recorded with 1993 Storm of the Century was approx. 965 mb near the Delmarva A NJ landfall with the pressures the models are hinting at would set the new state record for low pressure in NJ. New Jersey Atlantic City 30.98 1/27/1927 28.37 3/6/1932 Newark 31.02 12/25/1949 28.45 3/13/1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It'll be interesting later to see the surge models-a track like the Euro, or the Euro/GFS ensembles would bring the surge up big time. I could see 90+ mph gusts in places on the immediate coast, especially right/east of the track. But if you're in an area where that's a possibility, the water rise is the primary concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 All right cityfolk: I got a close friend living within 10 miles of the shores in Brooklyn. I'll be chatting with her later - what should I tell her wrt risks of flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 All right cityfolk: I got a close friend living within 10 miles of the shores in Brooklyn. I'll be chatting with her later - what should I tell her wrt risks of flooding? if she is really 10 miles from the shore that is not even close to a surge zone. but there could be urban (rainfall related) flooding everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It'll be interesting later to see the surge models-a track like the Euro, or the Euro/GFS ensembles would bring the surge up big time. I could see 90+ mph gusts in places on the immediate coast, especially right/east of the track. But if you're in an area where that's a possibility, the water rise is the primary concern. Yeah, the NHC should start putting up the forecast surge graphics over the next few days. The timing and the location of the landfall will be critical to the actual tide levels recorded. It's really going to be a wait and see game with how close to the astro high tide times the peak surge values coincide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah, the NHC should start putting up the forecast surge graphics over the next few days. The timing and the location of the landfall will be critical to the actual surge levels recorded. It's really going to be a wait and see game with how close to the astro high tide times the peak surge values coincide. I'm wondering if due to the longevity of the storm, that even if landfall misses out with high tide we can still get a bad surge regardless afterwards or before. This doesn't seem like a quick in-out storm like Irene and this should be a problem for a couple of tide cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I don't get why people all over the Internet are comparing this storm to Irene. Irene was a dying hurricane . This will be a hurricane interacting with a big cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I don't get why people all over the Internet are comparing this storm to Irene. Irene was a dying hurricane . This will be a hurricane interacting with a big cold front. And this is a totally different set up, different storm, different players...different difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 We aren't comparing the two storms themselves, but rather the impacts they cause. I think the wind potential is higher than Irene for inland places as well. 70-100kt 850mb winds could mean strong gusts at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 18z HRWF: 18z GFDL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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