Snow_Miser Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The 12z GEFS Ensemble Mean brings the low into Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 15 z SREF has sandy landfalling in central NJ http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 lol 18z NAM is way east through 66 hrs. Edit: starting to turn more NW around 75 hrs 81hr it's headed right for the C jersey coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 81hr it's headed right for the C jersey coast almost sitting on top of Montauk at 84hrs... crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Assuming that the GFS will come south a hair, we can start to narrow down the cone of uncertainty some. Fairly good consensus for a hit somewhere between Cape May and Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 point and click forecats from NOAA where changed from "tropical storm conditions" to "heavy rain"....just fyi, for whatever it means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 point and click forecats from NOAA where changed from "tropical storm conditions" to "heavy rain"....just fyi, for whatever it means. that is completely meaningless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The duration of the storm is very concerning, Nam looks a bit slower but it is the Nam, it's still outside of its accurate window but it doesn't look too shabby compared to the other models right now. Looking more likely that Sandy will move further east initially before sharply hooking back left, scary stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NAM looks like a landfall in central Suffolk County. But it goes waaaaay out there before getting captured. Crazy winds for all of Long Island/NYC it seems on this run, plus deluging rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 5PM advisory from NHC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm shocked that they shifted the track so far West. They really are hugging those tropical models tightly. None of the globals are as far south as this latest track. This is even well south of the 12z ECMWF track. Assuming that the track is nearly a straight line from VA beach to Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 that is completely meaningless prob. but if noaa isnt expecting winds to be as much of a factor as originally thought, thats pretty important...esp considering how much of an impact winds around 50kts would be around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NAM looks like a landfall in central Suffolk County. But it goes waaaaay out there before getting captured. Crazy winds for all of Long Island/NYC it seems on this run, plus deluging rain. NAM looks like a pitcher with a hell of a curve ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC is now south of every global model. They are even south of the hwrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow... Snippet from Upton's most recent AFD: CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SANDY. THE HURRICANE MODELS CONTINUE A CONCENTRATED CLUSTERING OF LANDFALL BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND TO THE TIP OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH THE 12Z/26 OPERATIONAL MODEL CLUSTERING ON LANDFALL FROM NYC TO SE NEW ENGLAND...AND 12Z GEFS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FROM SOUTHERN NJ TO EASTERN LI WITH LANDFALL. THE MODELS VARY IN TIMING OF LANDFALL BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT TIMING AND TRACK OF FORECAST CONSISTENT THE LATEST NHC GUIDANCE...TAKING THE CENTER OF SANDY INTO THE SOUTHERN NJ/DELMARVA COAST LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING...WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO BE TRANSITIONING TO A DANGEROUS POST-TROPICAL BY THE TIME OF LANDFALL. IT HAS TO BE EMPHASIZED...THAT ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL BEFORE LANDFALL...IT WILL BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC. BASED ON ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION...IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND RESULTANT URBAN...SMALL STREAM...AND RIVER FLOODING...HIGH WINDS CAUSING WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER LINES...AND SIGNIFICANT SHORELINE IMPACTS FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS WE BEGIN TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE INFLUX AND DEEP LAYERED LIFT. THE WINDOW FOR HEAVIEST RAIN IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SANDY AND INTERACTION WITH INTENSE JET/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTIONS FOR MORE ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. AS FOR WINDS...THEY INCREASE FROM THE E/NE ON SUNDAY BETWEEN SANDY AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS WELL INTO THE 30S ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH AND LANDFALL OF SANDY...LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SPEEDS OF 40-50G70-80MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATED LOCATIONS. IF THESE WINDS ARE REALIZED...THE COMBINATION OF EVENT DURATION...SATURATED GROUNDS...AND PARTIAL TO FULL FOLIAGE TREES...WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER LINES...CAUSING DISRUPTION TO POWER AND POSSIBLY TRANSIT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS...DETAILED IN THE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't think it's that far south. It would mean a landfall just south of Cape May or Delaware...similar to 11am advisory I'm shocked that they shifted the track so far West. They really are hugging those tropical models tightly. None of the globals are as far south as this latest track. This is even well south of the 12z ECMWF track. Assuming that the track is nearly a straight line from VA beach to Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm shocked that they shifted the track so far West. They really are hugging those tropical models tightly. None of the globals are as far south as this latest track. This is even well south of the 12z ECMWF track. Assuming that the track is nearly a straight line from VA beach to Baltimore. Exactly that map makes it kind of hard to tell where landfall would occur. As you stated if we assume that track is a straight line then it seems so far south. Perhaps they drew it that way as they may not have full confidence on the exact landfall position (nor should we this early in such a complex storm setup) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Up here its extremely saturated.. We haven't seen the sun in a week and every night has been misty w/ on and off lgt rain. Long duration would matter simply cause the longer the winds are "high" the longer it will take for them to start repairs. They will NOT attempt restorations during the storm. The misty rain couldn't possibly have anywhere near the effect of the pre-Irene rains last August, or for that matter the pre-October blizzard rains for the preceding two and one half months. KNYC had close to 40" of rain, including the October blizzard, between approximately August 7, 2011 and October 31, 2011. Thankfully, the period since then has been pretty dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18z tropical models that the NHC have been hugging to death. In ten years, I don't think I can ever recall the NHC being the southern outlier by a decent amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Track doesn't make sense. They probably will adjust during 8pm discussion/advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The NHC track is not the southern outlier according to this map. GFDL is only the reliable model that is south of the NHC track and this could be part of their reasoning for not adjusting the track northwards. There is too much concern about where the center makes landfall, IMO http://moe.met.fsu.e...&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Track doesn't make sense. They probably will adjust during 8pm discussion/advisory. Track is only adjusted at 5 and 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18z tropical models that the NHC have been hugging to death. In ten years, I don't think I can ever recall the NHC being the southern outlier by a decent amount. I find this hard to believe that NHC would go SOUTH of the bulk of the Guidance. O_o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow, the nam is crazy. Surprised that the NHC didn't shift the cone more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 energy is more amped in the central US and Sandy seems a little closer to the coast at 48hr. Wouldn't be surprised to see it come in around 50 to 75 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like the 18Z GFS is going for CNJ to SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Definitely going for LI then CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The center is right over NYC metro at 87 hours. So its south from 12z and it has a ton of QPF Well north of the NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What does everyone think the sustained winds might be? 40-50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What does everyone think the sustained winds might be? 40-50? upton offered a pretty good idea. That sounds about right...maybe closer to 50-60 at the coast with hurricane force gusts...70-80? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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