hurricane sandy thread #2

[Rjay]

I think they will issue hurricane watches to make their point to the public, even tho we know this wont be purely tropical.

[Stormlover74]

It would not be High Wind. That's only issued when they is no other watch or warning present. If its a blizzard for example that covers high winds so no need for the HWW. This would most likely be a Hurricane watch and would be issued tomorrow I would think.

whats gonna go down as far as watch issuances? will it be later today or tomorrow? will it be hurricane or high wind watches? it's important because people might be apt to not ignore hurricane watch over hearing high wind watch.

[MJO812]

Jim Cantore thinks the whole Northeast should be shut down Monday and Tuesday

[jm1220]

Man, couldn't they wait to start making these calls? This is still 96 hours away, thats an eternity with an unusual setup like this.

They need 72 hours to completely shut the system down, I believe, so they make these calls early. I guess no work for me Mon/Tues.

If we get flooding along the scale of Irene or worse, the tracks would be in horrible shape down here due to the salt waters. It took several days I believe to start service back down to here after Irene.

[pstar3182]

Think the ocean meets the bay again? My money is on "yes" if the Euro/GGEM is right.

... ill let you know

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

I'm worried about my family's house in Wildwood Crest now. We are like 3 houses off of the bay.

Yeah I'm concerned too as that is our annual vacation spot. Not looking good. Your only hope is that the path goes to your north. That might be your only saving grace.

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

If anybody really likes Long Beach Island, you may want to get down there, and take a look at it. Take some pictures, because it might not be there anymore after Sandy plows through!

I'm going to take some pictures tomorrow. I'm on the bay side sitting on the water. I'll head back there on Wednesday or so to take some more pictures.

[IsentropicLift]

I wonder if this will turn out like Irene with it not being as bad as forecast. My area was almost completely spared by Irene, just some flooding, a couple trees/branches down, no power lost, not a big deal. Of course every storm is different and Sandy's evolution will be completely different than Irene's as well as its trajectory. An E or ESE coming right off the ocean can be very damaging at least that's what I heard.

Can anyone chime in more on the wind direction and trajectory? What is the significant of an E or ESE wind compared to say a W or WNW wind.

As some were saying earlier, a NW wind could be particulary bad because the trees are not used to getting such strong wind from that direction. We could also get some downsloaping if this were to occur.

The SE wind which the Euro depicts is dangerous because of the shape of the coastline. A 12z Euro track would allow the maximum amount of water to build up and because of the angle of approach actually push the water into NY harbor and the LI sound. Now if this ends up hitting New England, we would get much less surge because the winds would be pushing offshore at the height of the storm.

[jm1220]

I wonder if this will turn out like Irene with it not being as bad as forecast. My area was almost completely spared by Irene, just some flooding, a couple trees/branches down, no power lost, not a big deal. Of course every storm is different and Sandy's evolution will be completely different than Irene's as well as its trajectory. An E or ESE coming right off the ocean can be very damaging at least that's what I heard.

Can anyone chime in more on the wind direction and trajectory? What is the significant of an E or ESE wind compared to say a W or WNW wind.

This is a much different setup than Irene, given the phase with a mid latitude upper low. Those almost always produce devastating storms, from the 1991 Halloween storm to Hazel and 1938. This won't be as bad as 1938 or Hazel but I would imagine it would be similar to a 1991 Perfect Storm only that it will make landfall near peak and not sit over open water like it did.

[Analog96]

Think the ocean meets the bay again? My money is on "yes" if the Euro/GGEM is right.

Yes.

[rickwx1006]

Wildwood and Atlantic City are going to get destroyed

I plan on taking a ride down to our normal beach/boardwalk spots in Avon by the Sea, Belmar, and Spring Lake tomorrow to take pictures. Hopefully it will still be there and look just as nice after the storm. I love winter snow storms and blizzards, but this Hurricane making landfall off the Central New Jersey coast is much too close for comfort, since I live about 15 miles west of Belmar.

[NaoPos]

Pa gov stated on TWC that pa will be under state of emergency * fwiw

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Pa gov stated on TWC that pa will be under state of emergency * fwiw

It's good to get ahead of the game and be prepared, but we don't want to cry "wolf". Most of what is going to happen up here is still at least 72 hours away. We know over the years how much the weather can change in 72 hours. Though people should be aware of the threat of damaging winds, beach erosion, coastal flooding, flash flooding, and the like, they should not YET be told that the end is near, or to make last minute preparations. By tomorrow night, we'll be looking at a whole new set of maps, and the picture could be better or worse for many of us.

WX/PT

[dbc]

but this is nothing like irene.

think dec 91, but worse.

really fearing long term loss of power.

You mean December 1992.

[dbc]

I plan on taking a ride down to our normal beach/boardwalk spots in Avon by the Sea, Belmar, and Spring Lake tomorrow to take pictures. Hopefully it will still be there and look just as nice after the storm. I love winter snow storms and blizzards, but this Hurricane making landfall off the Central New Jersey coast is much too close for comfort, since I live about 15 miles west of Belmar.

You live in my hometown! Are you in Candlewood? If it is like December 1992 (winds/damage wise) in Howell with this upcoming storm you are in for a wallop. I grew up in Howell and the December 1992 storm remains the worst winds I've ever experienced. If this is like that or worse, you will never forget it. Be safe. If you live in Candlewood and this produces like December 1992 or worse be prepared to lose power.

[earthlight]

The high tide and storm surge is one of my biggest concerns by far if the storm tracks into NJ.

[IsentropicLift]

Does anybody have the zoomed in maps off storm vista for the 12z Euro?

[CoastalWx]

EC ensembles Sandy hook. Slower and a little north of 00z ec ensembles.

[left_gulley]

Does anybody have the zoomed in maps off storm vista for the 12z Euro?

Nope, but you can zoom in to your heart's content here:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

[SnowGoose69]

EC ensembles Sandy hook. Slower and a little north of 00z ec ensembles.

We need to keep the north push going, if we can at least get this into eastern LI or SNE we would do better here...obviously our improvement is someone else's regression though.

[CoastalWx]

Resolution is tough, but maybe near BLM too, but a tick north thanks to wider turn west.

[snywx]

Some people were without power for five days last year, power crews can't go out until winds are sufficiently low enough, I think we will have people out of power for a week plus.

Had no power up here from Irene for 5 days.. Knowing this system is gonna linger around the area for a bit is pretty scary..

[jm1220]

Resolution is tough, but maybe near BLM too, but a tick north thanks to wider turn west.

Consistency on the various ensembles has been scary in targeting that particular area.

[Wannabehippie]

mta planning shut down...just announced...didn't say when though

I only see a cancellation of planned work, no mention of cancellation of service yet

[Stormlover74]

I lost power in Irene after the first big gust. A large branch fell on a wire and that was it until Wednesday night. So I don't know if the long duration will matter from a wind perspective. The only possible saving grace is we don't have a saturated ground like last August so maybe trees will have a better chance of withstanding the high winds.

Had no power up here from Irene for 5 days.. Knowing this system is gonna linger around the area for a bit is pretty scary..

[jm1220]

Real question is if it gets past 70W. If it recurves back before then, the likelihood of a more southern hit is increased, i.e. south of I-195. If it gets east of there, it could hit north of there or even Long Island directly.

[pstar3182]

I only see a cancellation of planned work, no mention of cancellation of service yet

If the next runs verifies and the NHC put something nasty out, 39MPH would easily be seen around the nyc area.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/international/hurricane_sandy_pounds_bahamas_after_HJoMFAGyIzFrjbu5HD7k7L

[CoastalWx]

Real question is if it gets past 70W. If it recurves back before then, the likelihood of a more southern hit is increased, i.e. south of I-195. If it gets east of there, it could hit north of there or even Long Island directly.

Agree. 70W may be a benchmark. A track over NYC would not be as bad. Track across ctrl NJ moving NW is worse case.

[snywx]

I lost power in Irene after the first big gust. A large branch fell on a wire and that was it until Wednesday night. So I don't know if the long duration will matter from a wind perspective. The only possible saving grace is we don't have a saturated ground like last August so maybe trees will have a better chance of withstanding the high winds.

Up here its extremely saturated.. We haven't seen the sun in a week and every night has been misty w/ on and off lgt rain. Long duration would matter simply cause the longer the winds are "high" the longer it will take for them to start repairs. They will NOT attempt restorations during the storm.

[IsentropicLift]

Those zoomed in wind forecasts on the Euro are just plain nasty. They have 50-60kt sustained winds into Sandy Hook and NY harbor while the system makes landfall near Barnegat Bay.