tmagan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't think people realize how long the power might be out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'd love to see this 12z model run in motion... 12z Euro has it at 940. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 May God help us all if the Euro is right , this will rival the perfect storm of 91, absolutely mind boggling to believe a track like this, but realistic given the blocking upstream. A very dangerous situation unfolding for sure.. It would be deeper than the '91 storm even if the pressure ends up being 30 mb higher than what the Euro is forecasting. The Euro is a nightmare track for NYC, essentially as bad as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 what kind of winds would the Euro have for NYC area verbatim? I got to imagine at least 60mph sustained is the lowest it would be at it's worst but that's just my untrained guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wildwood and Atlantic City are going to get destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The big issue I have is that folks in the NYC bight connect "hurricane" to "Irene" and think "no big deal." I don't know about everyone else, but in my area in C NJ, Irene was in and out within 6 hours. Sandy could sit over NJ for 12-15 hours and drop 6-8 inches of rain. With each hour of 40+ mph wind and a ground that becomes more saturated with time, the risk for trees tumbling increases dramatically. I don't think people realize how long the power might be out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't think people realize how long the power might be out. Well considering we had similar #s out on LI in Irene and Gloria and they got everyone back on in 10-11 days both times they had better be as good or better this time around...I can buy some theories this will be worse than Irene due to duration but this is not beating Gloria...we aren't going to see 100+ mph winds over the entire eastern part of Suffolk county. Considering we've advanced technologically since 1985 and the LIPA workers probably won't sit in their trucks not working due to pay disputes this time like last August I hope we recover better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I really don't think that we can assume that the models are too low on the pressure. The current pressure of Sandy is only 971mb. Assuming that the pressure remains roughly the same over the next 12 to 24 hours and that the models are correct in showing a rapid deepening phase I don't think a 940-950mb storm is out of the question. With the rediculous jet stream and baroclinic synoptics taking over Sandy could deepen very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well considering we had similar #s out on LI in Irene and Gloria and they got everyone back on in 10-11 days both times they had better be as good or better this time around...I can buy some theories this will be worse than Irene due to duration but this is not beating Gloria...we aren't going to see 100+ mph winds over the entire eastern part of Suffolk county. Considering we've advanced technologically since 1985 and the LIPA workers probably won't sit in their trucks not working due to pay disputes this time like last August I hope we recover better. Some people were without power for five days last year, power crews can't go out until winds are sufficiently low enough, I think we will have people out of power for a week plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Jeez, I wonder how Central Park is going to look after this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I really don't think that we can assume that the models are too low on the pressure. The current pressure of Sandy is only 971mb. Assuming that the pressure remains roughly the same over the next 12 to 24 hours and that the models are correct in showing a rapid deepening phase I don't think a 940-950mb storm is out of the question. With the rediculous jet stream and baraclonic synoptics taking over Sandy could deepen very quickly. *Baroclinic I do think this will weaken a bit more before prior to the baroclinic influences take over, but I don't think 950 is out of range, although 935-940 is probably pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Pressure wise, I would say the lowest possible pressure could be 945 mb near landfall, the most likely pressure is probably near 960, give or take a few mbs, the highest pressure would probably be 970 give or take a few mbs. Either way, it will be a powerful storm regardless and I like that there is more model consensus on the track. If this continues, we should have a very good idea on the final track by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Mayor Bloomberg will be holding a news conference on the storm at 3pm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wildwood and Atlantic City are going to get destroyed I'm worried about my family's house in Wildwood Crest now. We are like 3 houses off of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Jeez, I wonder how Central Park is going to look after this storm I'm wondering how long it's going to take to have a beach again on the South Shore after this. God help us if we follow this up with a bad nor'easter winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Jeez, I wonder how Central Park is going to look after this storm hopefully it gets rid of the vegetation around the AWOS obs sight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 *Baroclinic I do think this will weaken a bit more before prior to the baroclinic influences take over, but I don't think 950 is out of range, although 935-940 is probably pushing it. LOL I know how it's spelled, I was trying to edit the post but I seem to run into a problem where it doesn't want to let me edit anything the first time around. In any event, I fixed it. Either way, the pressure is only slowly rising. Up only 3MB from the 5AM advisory and 1MB from the 8AM advisory as of 2PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If anybody really likes Long Beach Island, you may want to get down there, and take a look at it. Take some pictures, because it might not be there anymore after Sandy plows through! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If anybody really likes Long Beach Island, you may want to get down there, and take a look at it. Take some pictures, because it might not be there anymore after Sandy plows through! I hope they do not close off all access to Jones Beach 36 hours prior like with Irene, I'd like to get a look at the surf before this comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wildwood and Atlantic City are going to get destroyed Glad I got to see what the Revel is like before it disappears. I have comps and discounted room deals for November at The Revel. They may be useless after this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 mta planning shut down...just announced...didn't say when though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If anybody really likes Long Beach Island, you may want to get down there, and take a look at it. Take some pictures, because it might not be there anymore after Sandy plows through! Think the ocean meets the bay again? My money is on "yes" if the Euro/GGEM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 mta planning shut down...just announced...didn't say when though Man, couldn't they wait to start making these calls? This is still 96 hours away, thats an eternity with an unusual setup like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Consensus method now gives 948 mb three hours before Asbury Park landfall at 952 mbs. I think that would give 5-10 ft storm surges at a minimum around the NYC region and localized 10-15 ft in certain inlets including Long Island Sound especially if GFS component of the consensus is weighted higher now (by the way my weighting continues 40-20-20-20 and I ignore the NAM although the way it is trending it is supporting this consensus in my opinion). Rainfall potential would be 3-6 inches for Long Island and metro NYC, trending to 10-20 inches nw NJ, ne PA and 8-15 inches Catskills, so possibly about 7-12 inches in north central NJ. River flooding could be serious in Delaware drainage and parts of southeast NY northeast NJ, for example, Raritan River. Storm surge not really my strong suit but going on available guidance and instinct I would have to say that a bad situation seems likely unless the central pressure fails to drop below 960, then it might be manageable although locally severe. Now, wind speed ... I continue to fear the worst here because of the rapid pressure falls within a system already near hurricane speeds at 00z 29th. Would at least be aware of potential if not outright warning of gusts into 120 mph range to north of track, and widespread gusts to damaging 80 mph range. A lot of tree damage seems inevitable in the storm zone. Building damage potential may be more nuisance than disastrous and public can mitigate this considerably by becoming aware of what the E-SE wind direction implies about where to place vehicles relative to trees and homes. I was in the strong wind zone of the 955 mb Jan 26 78 storm and this would make an impression on anybody let alone a weather guy, but as I parked my vehicle at 0800h in Toronto, the air conditioning unit of the office building landed in the adjacent parking space. This reminded me that urban planners try to design waterfront buildings with strongest wind directions in mind. If this consensus becomes locked in and forecastable, then NYC mets would be doing a good thing to walk their viewers through this exercise -- go onto your property (business or residential), walk around looking to the east or southeast (where the sun rose recently) and ask yourself, what could blow my way in a hurricane? What would it hit? What could I move to avoid damage or causing a projectile that could hit a neighbour's property? What trees or branches could come towards my property and with what consequences? It's not rocket science. Things will blow or fall towards the WNW in general. Now anyone reading this on the weak side of the track should realize that your risk is lower but the directionality will be opposite. I realize anything is still possible at this stage. That's just for planning and I would wait until maybe Saturday before mentioning this sort of stuff, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 http://nyti.ms/SdWL5p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I hope they do not close off all access to Jones Beach 36 hours prior like with Irene, I'd like to get a look at the surf before this comes in. Just drive down the Ocean Parkway a bit and you can walk over the dunes or through a clearing in the dunes to check it out. I did. Surf was real rough. I was also in Freeport for the landfall of Irene. Ive never seen storm surge like that in Freeport which we all know floods easily to begin with. I was waste deep in water and found out when I got home that it was raw sewage lol. Gross. There were people boogie boarding and plenty of others in the water. Also the winds were still strong and I got to see a tree snap in half and fall on a house causeing no real daamge...so if you do go to just out the surge, be safe and steer clear of trees if at all possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 mta planning shut down...just announced...didn't say when though Just heard it. They will shut it down if winds exceed 39 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Just heard it. They will shut it down if winds exceed 39 mph. What source did you get this from? I'm suppose to go into NYC through metro north tonight and come back sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 whats gonna go down as far as watch issuances? will it be later today or tomorrow? will it be hurricane or high wind watches? it's important because people might be apt to not ignore hurricane watch over hearing high wind watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 new york times has the story on the MTA possible shutdown http://nyti.ms/SdWL5p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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