pazzo83 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This has got to be borderline worst case scenario for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It actually hits Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GGEM/Euro/NOGAPS back to a near worst case scenario for NYC/CNJ... what does UKMET show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Can someone post some maps?? So basically this storm goes wide right and then takes a SUPER left hand turn and slams into NY Harbor, as per the 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow, what a shift. Atlantic City landfall. A consensus is starting to take shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 A 940 low hitting Atlantic City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That sharp hook left looks more and more likely, I thought it would be more gradual but after it goes left, it actually goes a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Can someone post some maps?? So basically this storm goes wide right and then takes a SUPER left hand turn and slams into NY Harbor, as per the 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow, everyone was sitting here thinking the Euro had the right idea and that everything else was going to cave. This is a good thing, meaning we are starting to get a better consensus at last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GGEM/Euro/NOGAPS back to a near worst case scenario for NYC/CNJ... what does UKMET show? in-between the GFS and the EURO, but closer to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow euro has to be worst case for jersey shore NYC & Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow, everyone was sitting here thinking the Euro had the right idea and that everything else was going to cave. This is a good thing, meaning we are starting to get a better consensus at last. Yup. Folks along the shore need as much time as possible to get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow, everyone was sitting here thinking the Euro had the right idea and that everything else was going to cave. This is a good thing, meaning we are starting to get a better consensus at last. Unfortunately, the consensus is pretty much the worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro has the storm sitting over NJ for 12 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow, what a shift. Atlantic City landfall. Can you post an image :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 At least the intensity of this is a bit weaker, many models are between 950 and 960 instead of 930 and 940, maybe a little weaker storm than currently shown in time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'd love to see this 12z model run in motion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 lord...this is going to be fascinating to watch unfold on radar (until everyones power goes out)...a storm coming in from the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 At least the intensity of this is a bit weaker, many models are between 950 and 960 instead of 930 and 940, maybe a little weaker storm than currently shown in time? It will probably be 965-975, thats what I've been saying since the beginning. The Euro is still too low but it almost always is on these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GGEM,Ukie,Nogaps and now the Euro are really terrible for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What about the rain amounts? Are we still speaking of 3-6in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GGEM/Euro/NOGAPS back to a near worst case scenario for NYC/CNJ... what does UKMET show? UKMET extrapolated (I only see up to 72 hr on the E-Wall site) would probably be similar to the GGEM, maybe a little to the left. HUGE difference in impact for the NJ shore and southern Long Island if the storm moves over you or under you. If under, you switch to a hard SE flow and massive problems with surge. Over you, you keep the offshore flow until the worst is over, and while there would still be a surge it wouldn't be as intense most likely. The sound seems like it gets whacked regardless. I think the most likely site for landfall would be the NJ coast, but anyone up to Cape Cod is probably still in the game. Something of a consensus might be forming for the mid or south NJ coast, but definitely still time to adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 what kind of winds would the Euro have for NYC area verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Extremely dangerous track for coastal flooding around the NY Bight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The Euro is still 940mb at landfall and probably even deeper before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What about the rain amounts? Are we still speaking of 3-6in Yea if not more last night euro showed 5-10 inches around landfall area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Agreed. I think we can all attest that over the next 48 HR there will be continued shifts in each model run. Despite the 12z shift, I have stood firm with my Ocean City, NJ, to Lavalette, NJ landfall at about 970 mb+/- 5. UKMET extrapolated (I only see up to 72 hr on the E-Wall site) would probably be similar to the GGEM, maybe a little to the left. HUGE difference in impact for the NJ shore and southern Long Island if the storm moves over you or under you. If under, you switch to a hard SE flow and massive problems with surge. Over you, you keep the offshore flow until the worst is over, and while there would still be a surge it wouldn't be as intense most likely. The sound seems like it gets whacked regardless. I think the most likely site for landfall would be the NJ coast, but anyone up to Cape Cod is probably still in the game. Something of a consensus might be forming for the mid or south NJ coast, but definitely still time to adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 May God help us all if the Euro is right , this will rival the perfect storm of 91, absolutely mind boggling to believe a track like this, but realistic given the blocking upstream. A very dangerous situation unfolding for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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