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hurricane sandy thread #2


forkyfork

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Wow, everyone was sitting here thinking the Euro had the right idea and that everything else was going to cave. This is a good thing, meaning we are starting to get a better consensus at last.

Unfortunately, the consensus is pretty much the worst case scenario.

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At least the intensity of this is a bit weaker, many models are between 950 and 960 instead of 930 and 940, maybe a little weaker storm than currently shown in time?

It will probably be 965-975, thats what I've been saying since the beginning. The Euro is still too low but it almost always is on these things.

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GGEM/Euro/NOGAPS back to a near worst case scenario for NYC/CNJ... what does UKMET show?

UKMET extrapolated (I only see up to 72 hr on the E-Wall site) would probably be similar to the GGEM, maybe a little to the left.

HUGE difference in impact for the NJ shore and southern Long Island if the storm moves over you or under you. If under, you switch to a hard SE flow and massive problems with surge. Over you, you keep the offshore flow until the worst is over, and while there would still be a surge it wouldn't be as intense most likely. The sound seems like it gets whacked regardless.

I think the most likely site for landfall would be the NJ coast, but anyone up to Cape Cod is probably still in the game. Something of a consensus might be forming for the mid or south NJ coast, but definitely still time to adjust.

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Agreed. I think we can all attest that over the next 48 HR there will be continued shifts in each model run. Despite the 12z shift, I have stood firm with my Ocean City, NJ, to Lavalette, NJ landfall at about 970 mb+/- 5.

UKMET extrapolated (I only see up to 72 hr on the E-Wall site) would probably be similar to the GGEM, maybe a little to the left.

HUGE difference in impact for the NJ shore and southern Long Island if the storm moves over you or under you. If under, you switch to a hard SE flow and massive problems with surge. Over you, you keep the offshore flow until the worst is over, and while there would still be a surge it wouldn't be as intense most likely. The sound seems like it gets whacked regardless.

I think the most likely site for landfall would be the NJ coast, but anyone up to Cape Cod is probably still in the game. Something of a consensus might be forming for the mid or south NJ coast, but definitely still time to adjust.

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