Weathergun Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFDL has been hitting the VA capes for awhile now, but the GFS has not budged really. It was some while the GFDL was showing a turn NW, before the GFS showed it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I wish people would understand that the worst case scenario around here IS a south jersey landfall. This is not a tightly wound pure topical system. Strongest winds will be displaced 100 miles or more NE of the center in the area of largest pressure gradient (bumping into the blocking high) The current NHC track is just a little south of that worst case but close enough that it shouldn't matter much. Unless this goes way south (Virginia or further) we are still in line for the worst! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Based on trends with the tvcn(light blue) on the dynamic models from 0z-early 12z; I would believe that both the NAM and GFS will correct slighty further south in future runs towards the european models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I wish people would understand that the worst case scenario around here IS a south jersey landfall. This is not a tightly wound pure topical system. Strongest winds will be displaced 100 miles or more NE of the center in the area of largest pressure gradient (bumping into the blocking high) The current NHC track is just a little south of that worst case but close enough that it shouldn't matter much. Unless this goes way south (Virginia or further) we are still in line for the worst! I would argue anything south of Delaware would start to mitigate the effects for our area, at least in terms of wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I wish people would understand that the worst case scenario around here IS a south jersey landfall. This is not a tightly wound pure topical system. Strongest winds will be displaced 100 miles or more NE of the center in the area of largest pressure gradient (bumping into the blocking high) The current NHC track is just a little south of that worst case but close enough that it shouldn't matter much. Unless this goes way south (Virginia or further) we are still in line for the worst! I will respectfully disagree , A worst case scenerio for NYC is not a landfall in Cape May or Atlantic city in southern New Jersey ( where i think it hits ) but Central New Jersey lONG BEACH , Atlantic highlands ( as they are 100 miles apart ) then turning NW the reason being is storm surge is greater closer to the center , the storm is a spready windy storm i agree , but a worst case is central NJ not Southern tip of NJ . But it may be too early to exact landfall , because its all goint to come down to the timing of the trough catching sandy and turning her NW . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NYC recorded a 113mph gust from Hurricane Hazel in 1954...That storm made landfall well south of the area...Sandy's track could come close to NYC...It remains to be seen...It could move north to just south of Long Island and stall...Then it makes a left turn right over NYC... one thing for sure is most of the leaves if not the whole tree will fall...get the rakes ready... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 actually remember this is a slow moving system - u get SE winds for a while that turn to the NE as it stalls , this run is out to 84 hours , then its retrogrades ( if u believe this 1 run ) its bad for NYC " if true " beacuse you will pile LI SOUND WATER back down the east river and as it back NW - you take a storm surge up the east river into the battery . i was comparing to the other model run this AM that takes into the Delmarva so should have read this is a worst case scenerio in comparison to the other runs this AM . I THINK LANDFALL is in south jersey . A low curving in from the SE would keep us in northerly or NE winds. The winds from the NAM are almost entirely offshore for South Shore or NJ locations. The Sound shores would still be battered very much. And even northerly winds wouldn't remove the surge threat for the south shore, but it would be a lot better than a wind that veers to E or SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Can we call this storm the Pre Halloween Mayhem Storm of 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS is going to be well north again of the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Strongly agree....I am not an emergency management expert but I don't think we are in the window yet for when those kinds of calls need to be made....also the quote that was made was literally yesterdays news...and the MTA boss was probably interviewed earlier than that....I'm sure if as we get closer to the onset of the event significant surge is being predicted that might change. I have a few friends in emergency management who use my websites product and contact me for info...and I can tell you that the first call I got was this morning and it was just to get a briefing on the situation. It's still way too early to pinpoint Mac hazard areas and way way too early for evacs or other procedures. Now is still the time to get early preparedness steps completed..stock up on essentials, clean your gutters, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 FWIW, 10/26 AO was -2.501. That's somewhat higher than had been shown on yesterday's run of the GFS ensembles. Interesting. Are we able to deduce how the recorded value you reference relates to what the Euro and it's ensembles depicted yesterday or even the 0z as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS is going to be well north again of the Euro would that start to hint the Euro as the outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I have a few friends in emergency management who use my websites product and contact me for info...and I can tell you that the first call I got was this morning and it was just to get a briefing on the situation. It's still way too early to pinpoint Mac hazard areas and way way too early for evacs or other procedures. Now is still the time to get early preparedness steps completed..stock up on essentials, clean your gutters, etc We had discussions with Ocean County\Seaside Park OEMs. They said the are gearing for flooding only and wouldn't make any announcements or possible closures to the town until late Sunday. Only thing they have done is cancel garbage pick up. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS refuses to budge, DT is adamant that the GFS will move towards EURO when the storm is within 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 12z GFS is well east and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 would that start to hint the Euro as the outlier? GFS just seems off to me in how it deals with the ridging/various shortwaves, etc, and it seems confused in how it flops around every run. NAM is just useless outside of 48 hr. Euro seems like a much steadier hand and way to go for now. The tropical models are also more in line with the Euro, although the transitioning to ET might not be in their wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 12z Ukie is well east of the Euro and looks like the GFS, maybe a little more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The 12z GFS looked messy with the phase at 66hr. It further west and stronger until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The 12Z GFS goes West towards Westchester County at HR 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The 12Z GFS goes West towards Southern Westchester County at HR 102. Suffice to say that has probably never happened. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The 12Z GFS goes West towards Westchester County at HR 102. gfs goes from Cape Cod to westchester huh??????????????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 At HR 108-114, Sandy goes towards NNJ to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro is following all the other 12z models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro is coming in way east NHC is unchanged??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro is following all the other 12z models So where is landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC is unchanged??? NHC does not update every time a new model runs. No NHC update until 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Meaning landfall where? Euro is following all the other 12z models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow, what a shift. Atlantic City landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Landfall on the Euro is just below Staten Island. Wow, what a shift. Bad news for the harbor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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