left_gulley Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Travels from Maine's longitude, then cuts through Northern NJ and arrives in Central PA at 964 mb. Congrats Snowshoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 the NHC actually has a 1% chance of a Cat 4 @ 72 hours...interesting...does anyone think that's even remotely possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 There are a lot of trees around my area. They are going to take a beating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:04 PM, user13 said: the NHC actually has a 1% chance of a Cat 4 @ 72 hours...interesting...does anyone think that's even remotely possible? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:04 PM, user13 said: the NHC actually has a 1% chance of a Cat 4 @ 72 hours...interesting...does anyone think that's even remotely possible? No, and at 1% neither does the NHC. That is statistically insignificant and you can always find anomalies like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 950mb low IMBY on the 18z GFS Good times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The latest GFS even ends with snow for a lot of places. Just wild how varied the models are at this point w/ their solutions. This GFS run was nuts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:05 PM, Snow88 said: There are a lot of trees around my area. They are going to take a beating. This isn't the desert southwest, almost everyone on this board can say the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:04 PM, user13 said: the NHC actually has a 1% chance of a Cat 4 @ 72 hours...interesting...does anyone think that's even remotely possible? No. This will be a warm seclusion. Pressures will be very low, but winds will be typical of a C1 or C2 Hurricane at the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 9:58 PM, Snow88 said: What does everyone think the sustained winds might be? 40-50? I think right now, mostly areawide, sustained 40-60mph. Gusts up between 60-80mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:05 PM, jasonli18t said: No, and at 1% neither does the NHC. That is statistically insignificant and you can always find anomalies like that. Yea but even 1% in a lot for the NHC they rarely ever put that on any storm unless conditions are great. I don't even remember seeing it before she almost went Cat 3 by Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:08 PM, user13 said: Yea but even 1% in a lot for the NHC they rarely ever put that on any storm unless conditions are great. I don't even remember seeing it before she almost went Cat 3 by Cuba. What does logic tell you? Do you think the storm is going to suddenly strengthen to a monstrous category 4 hurricane ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18z nogaps looks like a central Jersey landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I think we're converging towards a Central NJ landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:08 PM, user13 said: Yea but even 1% in a lot for the NHC they rarely ever put that on any storm unless conditions are great. I don't even remember seeing it before she almost went Cat 3 by Cuba. 1% still isn't a lot, relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:05 PM, Snow88 said: There are a lot of trees around my area. They are going to take a beating. hope that tree goes down on Ave Y ..the one that blocks my favorite streetlight..I had a good view 40 years from my apartment.. now just leaves..you know just in case I decide to move back in lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:13 PM, earthlight said: What does logic tell you? Do you think the storm is going to suddenly strengthen to a monstrous category 4 hurricane ? lol obviously not it looks like crap right now but even a 1 in 100 chance of that happening is scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 CNJ looks like the consensus for now. Wouldn't be shocked to see Hurricane Watches by sometime tomorrow for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:13 PM, earthlight said: What does logic tell you? Do you think the storm is going to suddenly strengthen to a monstrous category 4 hurricane ? If it did we probably wouldn't be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:17 PM, user13 said: lol obviously not it looks like crap right now but even a 1 in 100 chance of that happening is scary There is no chance whatsoever. Stop this discussion I agree with everyone saying the models are converging on a central NJ landfall. NHC is too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I think another important factor is where Sandy decides to stall out which could determine who gets a lot of flooding inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:17 PM, user13 said: lol obviously not it looks like crap right now but even a 1 in 100 chance of that happening is scary Totally. Well I'll be back later, I'm gonna go throw a party because I'm so stoked about my 1 in 100 chances of winning the mega millions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:17 PM, user13 said: lol obviously not it looks like crap right now but even a 1 in 100 chance of that happening is scary There are so many documents and graphics to look at for this event... why would you bother with the statistical values which are mostly irrelevant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ugh. Not looking forward to advising the EM council to issue evacuations along the flood prone areas. People almost never take them seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:19 PM, earthlight said: Totally. Well I'll be back later, I'm gonna go throw a party because I'm so stoked about my 1 in 100 chances of winning the mega millions. to be fair, if those were the mega millions odds i would spend every dime i had on lottery tickets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I noticed the models are higher with the pressure at landfall, but still incredibly powerful, 955-960 is historically low for us even though it won't be the crazy 935-940 pressures models depicted yesterday but they are showing a lot more rain than I've seen. The gfs signals 5-10" over our area which would assure we saw some significant if not major flooding even though river levels are relatively low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:20 PM, Juliancolton said: There are so many documents and graphics to look at for this event... why would you bother with the statistical values which are mostly irrelevant? lol guys no need to get sassy I was just puzzled of why they would even put that in the realm of possibility on a official release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:24 PM, user13 said: lol guys no need to get sassy I was just puzzled of why they would even put that in the realm of possibility on a official document I'm guessing because they always would just to cover their behinds in the very very very remote chance it did happen. I'm also pretty sure this isn't the first time they've put in a 1% chance of something for a storm. There's actually a greater chance of it being a tropical storm than a hurricane for that timeframe, by a 47% to 45% margin. The chance if it being anything higher than a Cat 1 looks pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This is stellar. JUST moved into Byram Township, NJ from the Philly area this past Wed. No generator and don't even fully know how my house works yet --- oh, and I have a 1 year old. Stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I doubt Sandy ever strengthens to cat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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