forkyfork Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Landfall Point Pleasant to Asbury Park NJ... a landfalling point that has likely not been seen in a century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Landfall Point Pleasant to Asbury Park NJ... a landfalling point that has likely not been seen in a century. At least there are signs of rise in the pressure when she comes. From 950s to 98xs, but the full moon on the lower barrier islands will test those dunes and shore banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 At least I wouldn't have to chase this one if that verified. Not feeling good about the amount of trees IMBY that have never experienced such anomalous wind magnitude/direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 especially at risk are the barrier islands in NJ the biggest and most populated being Long Beach Island where they will be talking about the possibility of the ocean meeting the bay over parts of or the entire island - the damage amount there if that happened would be unbelievable - last time it happend was the 1962 storm BUT the island was not built up like it is now. And this is the 50th anniversay in 2012 of this storm http://www.nj.com/ne...members_wh.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasperk99 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If this storm phases sooner and comes ashore as far south as the Va NC border, would it be far enough south to have a minimal impact on the Tri State area? As you can tell, I am a real weather newbie.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Anyone post the 12Z GFDL yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Anyone post the 12Z GFDL yet? In the previous thread it was talked about....but it looks insane. 925mb 100m E of cape may. 90+KT 900mb winds covering almost all of long island. Would be a disastrous scenario for LI and NYC in terms of surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The middle of the cone is right over Spray Beach. If it comes to pass it would be a horrible solution for the entire Jersey Shore and most of the Tri-State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Anyone post the 12Z GFDL yet? Conflicting from the 980s we saw on here earlier ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Still doesn't look like the 18Z GFS is going to do the quick hook - a repeat of the 1200 I suspect. Edit: Turning due North (from NNE) at 90hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 400 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL FEEL THE IMPACTS OF A DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND RESULTANT SIGNIFICANT URBAN...SMALL STREAM...AND RIVER FLOODING...HIGH WINDS CAUSING WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER LINES...AND SIGNIFICANT SHORELINE IMPACTS FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE EAST COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 My consensus method would take the track across Asbury Park into northern NJ with 945 mb potential near landfall. That would at least have one good result, impacts between Cape May and Asbury Park might be less catastrophic than the Euro or NHC tracks. This however would be close to worst-case for northern NJ and metro NYC. For the time being I won't add any numbers to my forecast suggestions simply because they are probably obvious to the pro mets anyway and some others who read this don't get the difference between a forecast and a model discussion. A feature which is not getting much discussion is that a meso-scale torrential rainfall band is likely to develop north-south on Sunday at about 75-76W remaining supported by the transitional nature of the approaching center. The Delaware valley could see rapid water level rises from runoff on either side in 10-20 inch rainfall bands. My estimate for NYC a lot lower on this track, perhaps in the 3-6 inch range? More like 4-8 lower Hudson valley and w CT. Very thundery event likely too, it has been dry for a few days so ground charge differentials may charge this up pretty intensely. I keep hoping this will both happen and not do any big damage, a rather forlorn combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS is coming right in to Sandy Hook at 111 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z GFS Sub 950mb "Frankenstorm" TM into CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 950mb winds over 85 knots for much of Long Island and similar numbers for the NJ Shore. As the storm begins to hook west, there is an area of over 90 kt 950mb winds over the Twin Forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 My consensus method would take the track across Asbury Park into northern NJ with 945 mb potential near landfall. That would at least have one good result, impacts between Cape May and Asbury Park might be less catastrophic than the Euro or NHC tracks. This however would be close to worst-case for northern NJ and metro NYC. For the time being I won't add any numbers to my forecast suggestions simply because they are probably obvious to the pro mets anyway and some others who read this don't get the difference between a forecast and a model discussion. A feature which is not getting much discussion is that a meso-scale torrential rainfall band is likely to develop north-south on Sunday at about 75-76W remaining supported by the transitional nature of the approaching center. The Delaware valley could see rapid water level rises from runoff on either side in 10-20 inch rainfall bands. My estimate for NYC a lot lower on this track, perhaps in the 3-6 inch range? More like 4-8 lower Hudson valley and w CT. Very thundery event likely too, it has been dry for a few days so ground charge differentials may charge this up pretty intensely. I keep hoping this will both happen and not do any big damage, a rather forlorn combination. current track for landfall being between asbury park/NYC would be terrible for the 5 boroughs, SW CT, and LI. storm surge will easily beat what irene did, and the winds im guessing will be around the sustained range of 50-60mph with gusts over hurrican force. rainfall isnt surprisingly being talked about too much over the wind/surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 850mb winds for the entire tri-state area are well above 90 knots by 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Hard to believe the consensus that is seemingly beginning to develop between the ops and ensembles for a CNJ hit moving NWrd. Yeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks a little west of 12z . This run really hammers the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Oye...those winds. Gonna be stressing the fact that our civil crews need to start to clear branches from utility lines in my briefing tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 the winds on the GFS are insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This would be the worst case scenario. 942mb right into north/central Jersey per Raleigh wx maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z GFS astro high tide landfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 lets hope for everybody's sake on this board that has property or lives near water that the GFS is wrong...that would be epically bad for storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The track of the 18z GFS is pretty consistent with the path laid out by the 12z ECM ENS. Seems like a consensus may be starting to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The Wunderground maps show much of LI receiving sustained hurricane force winds although they seem to underdo it for the city itself. If the 18z GFS verified I would presume all major reporting stations would see 50-60mph+ sustained and gusts to 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The NHC track is similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So is Fox 5's Nick Gregory's "most likely" track from the 6pm news The NHC track is similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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