Post all text regarding Sandy for Posterity

[LakeEffectKing]

I figured I'd start a thread to post ALL dialogues, discussions, snippets (ie text) from NWS, TV stations, blogs, etc. that relate to Sandy, for future reading pleasure! Please just post the text you'd like saved that relates to Sandy and make sure it is:

-not hotlinked

-timestamped

-and the source is ID'd!

I'll start:

From NWS BUF Hazardous outlook from 10/25/12:

HURRICANE SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST LATE THIS

WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. THOUGH THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN IN THE

HIGHER LATITUDES...ITS INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY

LEAD TO A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM FOR THE EAST COAST. THIS STORM SYSTEM

MAY TURN BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION OR

DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREAT

UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK OF THIS COMPLEX STORM...WITH THE TRACK

DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE LOCAL IMPACTS HERE IN WESTERN AND NORTH

CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE LOW CONFIDENCE BUT HIGH IMPACT SCENARIO

COULD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN CAUSING

LOCALIZED FLOODING...RISK FOR STRONG WINDS...AND EVEN THE RISK FOR

HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STATEMENTS.

[LakeEffectKing]

Upton 10/25/12 AFD Long range:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

POTENTIAL FOR A DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...AND A COLDFRONT WITH A STRONG H5 TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASTROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY SLOWLY TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.WITH ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING ON SATURDAY...AND SEVERAL OUTER BANDSASSOCIATED WITH SANDY TRACKING NORTH...WILL EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES ANDAT LEAST A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASESATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND THE COLD FRONTSTALLS OUT WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.STILL AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEKWITH REGARDS TO SANDY DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. USED HPCGUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT BLENDED THE HPC WINDS WITHTHE 12Z/25 ECMWF WINDS.WITH THE INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AND A NEW MOON EXPECTEDON MONDAY...COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE TIGHTENINGGRADIENT BETWEEN SANDY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...COASTAL AREAS COULD HAVE WINDSINCREASING TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA. WHAT MAKES THIS ESPECIALLYDANGEROUS IS THAT THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED EVENT...WITH WINDS OFTHIS MAGNITUDE LASTING ANYWHERE FROM 18-30 HOURS. THIS WOULD BATTERTHE COASTS...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES ANDPOTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS BRING SANDY OUT TO 70W...EAST OFHATTERAS...SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RECURVING SANDY BACK TOWARDS THECOAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOMETIME ON MONDAY...SANDY IS EXPECTED TOLOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT SHOULD STILL BE APOWERFUL AND HISTORIC STORM SYSTEM FOR THE NORTHEAST. MODELS BEGINTO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...ASLANDFALL COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE FROM THE DC METRO AREA TO CAPE COD.THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 12Z/25 GFS IS THE SLOWEST OF THESOLUTIONS...BRINGING SANDY EAST OF 70W ON MONDAY BEFORE TURNING BACKTOWARDS THE COAST...PASSING EITHER RIGHT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF LONGISLAND AND INTO NYC LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GFSENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK...THOUGH ARE ABOUT 6-12HOURS FASTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN. SEVERAL OF THE MEMBERS CARRYSANDY OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT IS AN OUTLIER.THE 12Z/25 CMC MODEL IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE GFS...AND IS ABOUT6-12 HOURS FASTER. THIS BRINGS THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLANDMONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN OVER NYC MONDAY EVENING BEFORE TRACKING BACKTOWARDS WESTERN NY/PA.THE 12Z/25 ECMWF CONTINUES ITS WESTERN TRACK...BARELY MAKING IT TO70W ON SUNDAY BEFORE SHARPLY TURNING BACK TOWARDS THE COAST ONMONDAY...MAKING LANDFALL JUST OVER WALLOPS ISLAND...VA BY TUESDAYMORNING. THIS COULD POSE A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SCENARIO...ASSTRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN WOULD BATTER COASTAL AREAS.AS SANDY TRACKS NORTH...IT WILL INTERACT WITH A STRONG H5 TROUGHDIGGING INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT SANDY ISMORE LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH AS OPPOSED TO BEINGCARRIED OUT TO SEA FROM IT. THIS INTERACTION WILL RESULT INWIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STILL TOOEARLY TO DETERMINE QPF...BUT FLOODING RAINS ARE A DISTINCTPOSSIBILITY.ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST WITH THEGUIDANCE SUPPORTING MANY DIFFERENT LOW TRACK SCENARIOS. REFER TO THENATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST TRACK AND FORECASTS.

-- End Changed Discussion --

[LakeEffectKing]

XTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

313 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

VALID 12Z SUN OCT 28 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 01 2012

...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE

MID ATLANTIC COAST...

PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION`S

SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH

HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR

TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO

A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE

ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO

TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD

SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN,

INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE

LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY`S GOTHIC

CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, WHEN ONE PART OF THE NATION IS EXPERIENCING

A VERY ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE DISTURBANCE, THE REMAINDER IS

RELATIVELY CALM. THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT PROVE THE EXCEPTION, WITH A

FAIRLY BENIGN FEED OF PACIFIC AIR INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN AND

CENTRAL STATES. THE FAR WEST, PARTICULAR NORTH OF CALIFORNIA, WILL

HAVE ENOUGH SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE PERIOD WET AND

UNSETTLED.

FINAL...

UPDATED THE TRACK OF SANDY TO FIT THE 15Z/25 NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER TRACK THROUGH 5 DAY, WHICH DOVETAILS WELL INTO THE HYBRID

LOW POSITIONS THEREAFTER FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. BOTH THE 12Z/25 GFS AND

GEM GLOBAL BRING THE LOW INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA, WITH THE

ECMWF DIRECTING IT INTO THE LOWER DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE UPSHOT

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THE SAME- HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS FOR

AREAS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL REMNANT, WITH HEAVY SNOWS

POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE WHERE THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR

RUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND

ADJACENT LOWLANDS TO THE EAST.

CISCO

[LakeEffectKing]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

436 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

VALID 12Z TUE OCT 30 2012 - 12Z FRI NOV 02 2012

...HURRICANE/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD HIGH

WINDS/HEAVY RAINS/HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND

CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA...

GENERAL FLOW PATTERN

====================

A RETROGRADING POSITIVE ANOMALY MOVING FROM SOUTHERN GREENLAND

INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FAVORS A QUASI-STATIONARY DEEP CYCLONE NEAR

THE NORTHEAST, IN THIS CASE HURRICANE SANDY AND ITS POST-TROPICAL

REMAINS. OTHERWISE...RIDGING IS GENERAL EXPECTED OUT

WEST...THOUGH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO

SEND ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT

AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN, THOUGH LARGE DETAIL ISSUES

REMAIN WITH SANDY'S FUTURE COURSE AND STRENGTH, KEEPING CERTAINTY

IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BELOW AVERAGE.

MODEL PREFERENCE

================

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) TRACK BEST RESEMBLES A

40/20/20/20 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/00Z ECMWF/00Z

GFS/00Z UKMET, WHICH WAS USED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR

THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY, TRANSITIONED TO A 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF

COMPROMISE AS THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH SANDY CONVERGE. THE

EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF SANDY MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN BASED

UPON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...A PROCESS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE

BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PER NHC. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE

(PARTICULARLY THE 00Z ECMWF) SHOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS WELL BEYOND

WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NEW JERSEY/NEW YORK COAST

(EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURRICANE) EARLY IN

THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (CANADIAN,

GFS, AND ECMWF INCLUDED) HAS SHOWN A VERY STRONG BIAS WITH

TROPICAL CYCLONES GAINING LATITUDE AND/OR TRANSITIONING INTO

NON-TROPICAL STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE YEARS, INCLUDING (BUT NOT

EXCLUSIVE TO) LESLIE 2012, ISAAC 2012, DEBBY 2012 IN THE WESTERN

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC, IRENE 2011, AND IGOR 2010. EVEN THE

PERFECT/HALLOWEEN STORM OF 1991 "ONLY" BOTTOMED OUT AT 972 HPA,

AND THIS FORECAST WAS ALLOWED TO EXCEED THAT SYSTEM WITHOUT GOING

OVERBOARD. PRESSURES FOR THE STORM WERE CAPPED AROUND 965 HPA

EARLY IN THE PERIOD PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AND ALLOWED TO WEAKEN ONCE

INLAND. THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER

(OPC) AND IS CLOSE TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF HPC/OPC CONTINUITY.

KEEP IN MIND THIS PREFERENCE WOULD INDICATE THAT THE MODEL-DERIVED

QPFS FOR THE GUIDANCE SHOWING CENTRAL PRESSURES UNDER 965 HPA ARE

LIKELY TOO EXCESSIVE DUE TO THEIR EXTREME LOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS

FOR SANDY.

WEATHER IMPACTS

===============

PER THIS SOLUTION, FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WINDS NEAR

HURRICANE-FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO LASH EXPOSED AREAS OF THE

NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES (THE COAST AND TOPOGRAPHY), LEADING

TO POTENTIALLY SERIOUS COASTAL EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. THE

TIMING OF THE FULL MOON AND THE BUILD-UP OF TIDES OVER MULTIPLE

TIDAL CYCLES SHOULD EXACERBATE THE SITUATION ALONG THE COAST,

PARTICULARLY IN CORNERS SUCH AS THE NEW YORK BIGHT. HEAVY RAINS

ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS WITHIN SANDY'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT

CIRCULATION AS WELL AS ALONG ITS DRAPING WARM FRONT FROM THE

NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN CANADA, WITH LOCAL

AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW

SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WITHIN ITS COMMA HEAD PATTERN TO FALL ACROSS THE

MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA/EASTERN OHIO;

LIKELY NOT TO THE EXTREME DEGREE SEEN WITHIN ANY OF THE CURRENT

DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN

GREAT LAKES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THE CYCLONIC

FLOW IN THE SYSTEM'S COLD SECTOR. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AS IT

PULLS NORTHWARD THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY, WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN AS

SHOULD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

ROTH

[isohume]

I can't wait for folks claiming "there was no indication it was going to be this bad".

[Srain]

From our local Pro Met (Jeff L) for HCFCD (Harris County Flood Control District) regard Sandy and the 'potential historic' nature of this event:

Potentially historic and unprecedented hurricane potential for the NE US coast.

Over the next 5 days a set of extraordinary meteorological factors will come together to potentially produce a hurricane impact on the NE US coast that has never before been experienced since the founding of this nation and the keeping of written weather records.

In response to this potential threat, all US weather balloon sounding stations are launching upper air balloons every 6 hours to incorporate the latest data into the forecast models in support of NHC and HPC forecasting operations…this has never happened before!

The following discussion will attempt to explain this complex set of parameters for what appears to be an increasing likely extremely high impact but never before seen event!

Background:

Hurricanes striking the NE US are not overly uncommon…just last year Irene moved into the same area causing extensive damage and the area which has one of the longest periods of recorded weather history anywhere in the US has been hit several times before by hurricanes. To understand what is forecasted to take place this weekend and early next week, one must look at the fundamental differences between what is called a tropical cyclone…hurricane and what is called post tropical (extra-tropical). To simplify, a tropical cyclone is warm core with no surface temperature gradients (same air mass before and after passage) and they gain intensity from warm waters below. Post tropical (extra-tropical) as usually system higher in latitude than tropical cyclones that do have temperature gradients (cold and warm fronts) and gain intensity not so much from warm water, but the differences in those temperature gradients and jet stream dynamics aloft. Many times as tropical cyclones move out of the tropics and northward into the higher latitude they encounter increasingly colder air masses that wrap into the system and the transition begins from tropical (warm core) to post tropical or cold core (with fronts). An example of a type of extra-tropical system would be a nor’easter.

Upper Air Pattern for this Event:

The upper air pattern over North America and over the North Atlantic is becoming increasingly blocked…weather systems such as big high and low pressure centers are slowing down and will become nearly stationary. Massive high pressure is building over Greenland currently while a large longwave trough is developing over the central and eastern US. Due to the high latitude blocking that is going into place these large scale features will remain nearly stationary in place for the next 5-7 days.

The longwave trough currently developing over the eastern US will become increasingly negative titled (oriented NW to SE instead of SW to NE). Most of the time troughs nearing the east coast are positive tilted (SW to NE) and hurricanes to their SE (where Sandy currently is) are steered N and NE out to sea. In fact all hurricanes that have affected the NE US since 1851 have had tracks from the SW to the NE consistent with a SW to SE steering flow. The difference with this event is the downstream blocking high over Greenland which will prevent Sandy from accelerating NE into the Atlantic and also a strong shortwave trough which moves through the large longwave trough and helps to capture Sandy into the trough.

With the trough anchored over the SE US and mid Atlantic producing an increasingly strong SE steering flow and blocking high pressure over Greenland, Sandy has little choice but to turn back toward the NW or even WNW and strike the US coast.A hurricane has never struck the US mid Atlantic or NE coast moving toward the NW or WNW or at a right angle to the coast as Sandy is forecast to do. Historical storms generally move SW to NE parallel to the coast with the greatest impacts offshore or over extreme east MA and Cape Cod.

As far as the models predicted track go, they are doing a good job with a rare pattern with only modest amounts of spread. Generally the ECMWF continues to be on the west and southern edge of the guidance taking Sandy into the southern DELMARVA area while the GFS and CMC are further north into Long Island (NYC) and southern New England. The current NHC forecast track is splitting the difference with slightly more weight toward the ECMWF which was the first model to predict this “highly anomalous event” and has remained very consistent over the past 2-3 days.

Model Intensification (Tropical vs. Post Tropical):

For reference the powerful 1938 Long Island hurricane holds most of the low pressure records over the NE US. A central pressure of 946mb was recorded as this storm moved inland over southern Long Island producing the highest storm surge on record on Long Island and into southern New England. The 1991 “Perfect Storm” had a central pressure of around 972mb which produced significant coastal damage from North Carolina to Maine. I list these benchmark events as comparisons to what the models are showing for Sandy.

Every forecast model except the NAM is forecasting a sub 960mb storm which would be significantly lower than the 1991 event. However most of the model guidance is producing a sub 940mb storm which has never occurred over the NE US before (946mb is the lowest recorded pressure). To understand what this means, the lower the pressure the stronger the storm system…in the tropics such pressures as this would equal to a category 4-5 hurricane. However, it will not be that simple! Sandy is already starting to undergo changes in her internal structure this morning with the inner core winds weakening and the wind field expanding outward a feature closer to a post tropical system (large weaker wind field) than a tropical system (smaller more concentrated wind field). Even if these super low pressure are to verify, the system would not produce category 4-5 winds as the pressure gradient would be spread out of hundreds of miles with a massive area of 70-90mph winds.

The question is why are the forecast models predicting such “historic” low pressures with this event and are they correct?

1) One would expect a true hurricane (tropical cyclone) to weaken as it moves northward into a colder and drier air mass over the NE US and adjacent Atlantic waters. Additionally water temperatures along the track are generally below the threshold needed for tropical cyclone intensification.

2) If the real world data does not support tropical cyclone intensification, then why are the models all showing it? The system is expected to gain more and more extra-tropical features as it moves northward which means it starts to draw its energy sources from temperature gradients and jet stream dynamics instead of the warmer waters. What is likely happening in the models is that the warm and moist influx of Caribbean air with Sandy will greatly intensify the temperature gradient with the SE moving polar air mass from Canada and help intensity the overall storm. Additionally, Sandy’s surface low will be in a favorable region of the trough to provide strong upper level divergence aloft which will help promote intensification.

3) However…what is interesting is that many of the models keep Sandy warm core or tropical toward landfall while intensifying in conditions that would be marginal at best for a tropical cyclone to hold its intensity. It is likely that Sandy will be something of an “in between system” drawing energy initially from the warm Gulf stream below and then more and more from the mid latitude jet and temperature influences.

4) The models could be completely wrong on the pressures (it would not be the first time). However, it must be noted that nearly every model is showing the same very low pressure and that does add credibility to their solutions.

Possible Impacts:

As with any rare weather event the impacts are somewhat of an unknown. Additionally the uncertainty of how Sandy will evolve and how is curves back toward the US coast will drive where and how severe the impacts will be.

It can be easily stated that should the forecast track and models “spectacular” low pressure verify a storm of rare intensity and tremendous impacts will be felt along the NE and mid-Atlantic coast. Given the forecasted perpendicular strike on the coast, onshore winds will push the Atlantic Ocean inland along the New Jersey and New York coast including New York City. Due to the high blocking over Greenland, the fetch of wind will extend nearly across the entire Atlantic Ocean and this will result in massive wave action aimed at the NE US coast. Lunar tides are also near peak with the full moon on Monday and this combined with the wave run-up and long duration of onshore winds (20-30 hours at 60-80mph) will result in potentially record breaking storm surge values. The potential is there for coastal inundation of sea water never before experienced in the NE US including New York City,but this depends heavily on the exact track of the center of Sandy.

Strong winds will batter much of the mid Atlantic and NE for not hours but days as Sandy moves NW to WNW and slows. These winds will last anywhere from 20-30 hours at 60-80mph with higher gust resulting in widespread power outages and downed trees. Strong winds will spread well inland from the coast into Canada and the OH valley.

Rainfall will be extensive as tropical moisture is brought northward with Sandy and pushed against a stalled front nearly along the higher terrain of the Appalachian mountains. Flooding rainfall due to the high rainfall rates and slow storm motion is likely and it is possible some rivers will reach record crests.

Impacts over the open Atlantic will be severe with a massive area of sustained winds of 60-70mph over hundreds of miles. Wave heights will build into the 20-30 foot range and I would not be surprised to see heights build toward 40-45 feet. Visibilities will be reduced to near zero in blowing sea spray and heavy rainfall.

Potential for widespread travel and commerce disruption as air, surface, sea, and rail travel will likely be significantly impacted along with widespread long term power outages which could last well into November.

[LakeEffectKing]

From Albany AFD 10/26/12:

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS LONG TERM GRIDS...WITH THE

EXCEPTION OF INCREASING TUE NT POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE...AND

INCORPORATING NHC WIND TOOL FOR MON-EARLY TUE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A TRACK OF A POWERFUL HYBRID SYSTEM TOWARD

THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC OR NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE

00Z/26 ECMWF REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT...TRACKING THE CENTER OF THE

STORM INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHILE THE 00Z/26 GFS TRACKS THE

CENTER TOWARD LONG ISLAND. THE 00Z/26 NAM ALSO TRACKS THE SYSTEM

TOWARD LONG ISLAND...ALBEIT MORE FROM THE SOUTH. ALL MODELS CONTINUE

TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIALLY VERY LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE...GENERALLY SUB

960 MB WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM. HOWEVER...AS HPC INDICATED IN

THE LATEST PMDHMD...MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS OF LATE HAVE HAD A

BIAS IN OVER-DEEPENING TROPICAL CYCLONES AS THEY MOVE POLEWARD

AND/OR TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL ENTITY...SO ULTIMATELY THE

CENTRAL PRESSURE MAY NOT BE NEARLY AS LOW AS CURRENT MODELS

INDICATE. NEVERTHELESS...A POWERFUL STORM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT A

LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION...MAINLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH

SOME RAIN AND WIND MAY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO SUN NT...AND COULD

LINGER INTO TUE NT OR WED.

AS FAR AS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE ALBANY CWA...AT THE VERY

LEAST...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG WINDS AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN

SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME DURING THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. THIS COULD

ENTAIL WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 30-50 MPH...WITH POTENTIALLY STRONGER

GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE

GREEN MOUNTAINS/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE

EASTERN CATSKILLS. DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK...SUCH AS ONE

SIMILAR TO THE 00Z/26 GFS...SHOULD A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW

DEVELOP...THEN CHANNELED FLOW DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY COULD

ALSO LEAD TO WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN VALLEY REGIONS.

AS FOR RAINFALL...AGAIN THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT

TRACK. AT THE VERY LEAST...AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS...AND ALSO THE

GREENS/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS WOULD POTENTIALLY WITNESS STRONG

OROGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WHICH COULD GREATLY ENHANCE RAINFALL AMTS. AT

THE SAME TIME...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT IF LOW LEVEL WINDS

REMAIN MORE FROM THE NE...SUCH AS INDICATED IN THE GFS

SOLUTION...THAT SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN VALLEY

LOCATIONS DUE TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF TIDAL FLOODING FOR

AREAS ADJACENT TO THE HUDSON RIVER...AGAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE

ULTIMATE TRACK. THIS WOULD BE A GREATER CONCERN SHOULD THE STORM

TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH...SUCH AS INTO THE DELMARVA REGION OR

NEW JERSEY...AS A PERSISTENT STRONG EASTERLY COMPONENT TO OUR SOUTH

WOULD TEND TO DRIVE WATER INTO AREAS WHERE THE HUDSON RIVER NORMALLY

EMPTIES...IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE

HIGHER DUE TO NEXT WEEK/S FULL MOON.

AGAIN...THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM IS VERY ATYPICAL...AND

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERING IN THE EXACT TRACK/EVOLUTION...THE

AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL EFFECTS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT

UPDATES.

[LakeEffectKing]

Upton AFD 10/26/12:

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE

AFFECTED BY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SANDY. THE HURRICANE MODELS

CONTINUE A CONCENTRATED CLUSTERING OF LANDFALL BETWEEN EASTERN

LONG ISLAND TO THE TIP OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH THE 12Z/26

OPERATIONAL MODEL CLUSTERING ON LANDFALL FROM NYC TO SE NEW

ENGLAND...AND 12Z GEFS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FROM SOUTHERN NJ TO

EASTERN LI WITH LANDFALL. THE MODELS VARY IN TIMING OF LANDFALL

BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

HAVE KEPT TIMING AND TRACK OF FORECAST CONSISTENT THE LATEST NHC

GUIDANCE...TAKING THE CENTER OF SANDY INTO THE SOUTHERN

NJ/DELMARVA COAST LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING...WITH THE STORM

EXPECTED TO BE TRANSITIONING TO A DANGEROUS POST-TROPICAL BY THE

TIME OF LANDFALL. IT HAS TO BE EMPHASIZED...THAT ALTHOUGH THE

STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL BEFORE

LANDFALL...IT WILL BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE

NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC.

BASED ON ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS

TO THE REGION...IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND RESULTANT

URBAN...SMALL STREAM...AND RIVER FLOODING...HIGH WINDS CAUSING

WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER LINES...AND SIGNIFICANT

SHORELINE IMPACTS FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED

TO INCREASE FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS WE BEGIN TO SEE A

GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE INFLUX AND DEEP LAYERED LIFT. THE

WINDOW FOR HEAVIEST RAIN IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND

ON EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SANDY AND INTERACTION WITH INTENSE

JET/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE

ANYWHERE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY

SECTIONS FOR MORE ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. AS FOR WINDS...THEY

INCREASE FROM THE E/NE ON SUNDAY BETWEEN SANDY AND HIGH PRESSURE

TO THE N. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS WELL INTO THE 30S ARE

LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THE

STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH AND

LANDFALL OF SANDY...LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUE...WITH THE POTENTIAL

FOR SPEEDS OF 40-50G70-80MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATED

LOCATIONS. IF THESE WINDS ARE REALIZED...THE COMBINATION OF EVENT

DURATION...SATURATED GROUNDS...AND PARTIAL TO FULL FOLIAGE

TREES...WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER

LINES...CAUSING DISRUPTION TO POWER AND POSSIBLY TRANSIT FOR

SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT COASTAL

IMPACTS...DETAILED IN THE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS.

[LakeEffectKing]

Blog from http://goesrnatcentperspective.wordpress.com/author/folmercast/

It’s been a very busy day here at the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) and it’s only going to continue on this pace through the weekend. The good news is that we have some great GOES-R and JPSS products to assist the forecasters in their forecast philosophies, separate from the model mayhem we have all been hearing about or observing. I thought I would continue on a similar path as recent days and show you the players on the field as it is now another 24 hours later and some interesting things are beginning to take shape that will ultimately define the exact track of Hurricane Sandy.

If you look at the above image of Sandy, you might ask. . .is she naked? Where did the thunderstorms go? Or even. . .what’s the big deal? Sandy is undergoing some serious shear at this moment with mid to upper level winds averaging around 50 knots (60 mph) helping to fan out the upper cloud pattern and strip the “eye-like” feature of deep thunderstorms. This does not mean that Sandy is not producing hurricane force winds as has been observed today by aircraft measurements. So what happened? You ask great questions. . .

The upper low that was south and west of Sandy yesterday has gotten tangled up with the hurricane and therefore we are left with a very hybrid looking hurricane. This is still a significant threat for someone. . .but how do we get there? I will tell you!

GOES-Sounder RGB Air Mass product with the 5 pm EDT NHC forecast track of Hurricane Sandy overlaid.

As you can see above, the playing field has gotten a bit more crowded than it was the last two days and that is due to a new feature that will dictate the path of Sandy. The white line more or less outlines the developing longwave trough (large-scale pocket of cooler air). The first shortwave (red “L” in the yellow circle) is getting ready to move out of the base of the longwave trough, but will help to push Sandy a bit more north-northeast over the next 24 hours. The new player is the red “L” in the red circle in the upper-left corner. As you can see, I (poorly) drew the projected path of this feature that will help to form a closed upper-level low to the southwest of Sandy by Sunday-Monday. This will help to steer Sandy back towards the Mid-Atlantic or Southern New England by the Monday-Tuesday time frame.

Although I did not highlight the area, there is still some orange coloring over Sandy which is indicative of the slow transition into a hybrid storm as it indicates some dry stratospheric air has gotten entangled with the storm. It will be interesting over the next few days to see how the upstream shortwave (latter red “L”) transfers energy to Sandy, effectively strengthening the storm!

SEVIRI RGB Air Mass product over the North Atlantic valid at 21z on 10/26/12.

Meanwhile, the North Atlantic has gotten more complicated as the higher latitude blocking is in full swing. The white outlined region is the expanding area of upper-level high pressure or ridge that is setting up this “blocky pattern”. The traffic jam has started and the large, complex ocean storm in the red circle with two significant shortwaves (red “L’s”) will shift southeast over the weekend, then sit and spin. . .for a while. This helps to strengthen the ridge to the north and will lead to a road-block with subsequent detour for Sandy. So, blame Greenland for being a favored location for things like this!

The black circle is all that is left of Tony. I was way wrong on its evolution as I thought the larger system to the west would absorb the system, but it is wandering harmlessly towards the Canary Islands. I’m sure they can use the rain there. Finally, the little red “L” is our wandering upper-level low that will continue to bob around the North Atlantic on its long journey west. We will talk about that little guy in future posts.

So, what does this mean for the East Coast? All that blocking, the complex evolution of the upper-level low forming over the Carolinas, and a hurricane will lead to very bad weather for many people up and down the East Coast, but the emphasis continues to be on the Mid-Atlantic. Some models bring the storm towards eastern Long Island and Southern New England, but I’m not jumping on that option just yet. Very high winds, heavy rain, severe coastal flooding (remember earlier posts about the full moon, large fetch, and storm surge), and potential thumping snow in the Appalachians still remain a strong possibility. We have another 24-36 hours to fully digest and analyze this complex situation, but residents along the coast and inland should prepare anyway.

I leave you with a couple high resolution images of Sandy from the new Suomi NPP satellite’s VIIRS instrument. The first image is the Day-Night band showing a “visible-like” satellite image using light from our moon! The second images is the infrared band showing very fine details in the cloud pattern with a resolution of 375 meters! Amazing stuff for sure! A special thank you goes to Kathy Strabala for providing the imagery.

The NPP VIIRS day-night band image from 0702z on 10/26/12.

VIIRS Infrared image at 375 m resolution valid at 0702z on 10/26/12.

I will continue to keep you informed over the weekend. Expect this to get more interesting as we approach the event.

[andyhb]

Pretty scary statement from Mt. Holly...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

631 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...POTENTIAL HISTORIC STORM FOR THE AREA...

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN TAKE A

TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC

COAST. IT APPEARS THIS OCCURS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE DELMARVA

PENINSULA AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL

SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES, AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT OUR

REGION MAY EXPERIENCE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STORM, POSSIBLY OF

HISTORIC PROPORTIONS.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE EXACT STORM TRACK IS

STILL UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL IMPACTS. HOWEVER,

THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE A LARGE STORM THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON

THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS

WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

IN ADDITION, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN /POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 10

INCHES/ WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON RIVERS AND STREAMS

ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD BE MAJOR TO EVEN RECORD FLOODING.

RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY

EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BECOME HEAVY AT

TIMES. AS WATER IS PUSHED TOWARD THE COAST, COASTAL FLOODING WILL

INCREASE AND THIS COULD BE TO MAJOR TO PERHAPS EVEN RECORD LEVELS

ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. THE EXTENT OF THE

COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LARGE AND RECORD SETTING STORM, WITH

WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND BEACH

EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND WILL CREATE THE

POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. AT

THIS TIME, THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE WORST OF THE RAIN AND

WIND LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MEANS THERE IS STILL TIME

TO PREPARE.

[LakeEffectKing]

WOW! (Bold below)

000

NOUS41 KPHI 281841

PNSPHI

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-

055-060>062-067>071-291200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA...

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY

NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER

OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND

DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE

BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND

WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS

FLOODING.

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO

WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

SOME IMPORTANT NOTES...

1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE

AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO.

2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE

OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO

IT AGAIN.

3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT

THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU

MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE

RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR

RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE.

4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR

PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS

ZERO FATALITIES.

5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR

ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!

$$

NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ

[LakeEffectKing]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

840 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND HIGH WIND EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER

ELEVATIONS...

.POST TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD UPPER LOW

AND RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WIND OVER THE HIGHER

ELEVATIONS.

VAZ503-504-WVZ501-503-505-506-290845-

/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0005.121029T2200Z-121031T1200Z/

/O.NEW.KLWX.BZ.W.0001.121029T2000Z-121031T1200Z/

WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-

WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...BAYARD...

MOUNT STORM...ELK GARDEN...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN

840 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT

WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY

TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN

EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL

ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND

CONTINUING UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND FREEZING.

* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...A COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND AND HEAVY WET SNOW WOULD

DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. EXPECT NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES

IN PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS

AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF

YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET

STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

[LakeEffectKing]

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

738 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT...

YIELDING LOTS OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE

ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HURRICANE SANDY WILL BRING DAMAGING WINDS...

HEAVY RAIN AND COASTAL FLOODING TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING EFFECTS INTO TUESDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH

FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

TONIGHT WILL BE A GRADUAL RAMP UP AS SANDY TRACKS

NORTHWARD...PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN

RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS AND TRANSFER OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO

OUR REGION. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING IN ENOUGH

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. UPDATED

ZONES TO REFLECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA.

POPS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN ZONES WHEN SHOWERS

ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY REACH INTO OUR AREA. IN ADDITION AREAS OF

FOG ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED. WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED

WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHEST GUSTS ON THE CAPE AND

ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

* HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION

THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE

* FLOOD WATCHES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP

TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN

* COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST FACING COASTS

WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY...MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING

POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTA AND IN NARRAGANSETT BAY

CONDITIONS RAMP UP SUBSTANTIALLY DURING MONDAY WHILE SANDY...THE

CENTER STILL OFFSHORE...MAKES ITS APPROACH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC

COASTLINE. HOWEVER THE WIND FIELD FROM SANDY IS FAR REACHING...AS

OVER OUR AREA DURING MONDAY MORNING H850 WINDS INCREASE TO A

REMARKABLE 70 TO 90+ KTS. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS ALREADY BEEN

ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER THE

INTERIOR...AND GUSTS TO 70 MPH OVER RI AND E MA. THESE STRONG WINDS

BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS AND

THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE COULD CAUSE

TERRAIN/UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION THAT IS REFLECTED IN

PARTICULAR IN THE NAM...ESPECIALLY HIGHER RESOLUTION VERSIONS OF THE

MODEL. THIS THREAT IS ADDRESSED MORE IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE

DISCUSSION. POPS INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL EARLY ON MONDAY. A FLOOD

WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

DURING MONDAY NIGHT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE AS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED

WITH SANDY CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA. CONTINUED RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY

RAINS. H850 WIND FIELD GRADUALLY DIMINISHES OVER TIME AS SANDY

TRACKS OVERLAND...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUING AT 70 TO 90 KTS

OVER OUR AREA TO START...THEN DIMINISHING TO 40 TO 60 KTS LATE. HIGH

WIND WARNING CONTINUES FOR OUR CWA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...STILL

ANTICIPATING GUSTS TO 60 TO 70 KTS OVER OUR CWA DURING THE

NIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

COASTAL FLOOD AND MARINE HEADLINES ARE ADDRESSED FURTHER IN THIS

DISCUSSION.