IWXwx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Low of 28F this morning is the first hard freeze at DTW (first freeze, however, was way back Oct 11th). With this talk of sleet, I am in the group who cannot recall more than a half inch of sleet at any given time. While it would be interesting to see, and no doubt 3-4" would take a LOT to melt (basically an extra firm snowcover) Id probably be a little upset knowing that means someone near me got creamed with snow. The thing that sticks out in my mind was that not only was it more sleet than I had ever seen on the ground, it was actually drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Still no sub-freezing temps at ORD yet this season. They have hit 32 once and 33-34 several times...but not 31 or lower. Tonight may finally do it if the clouds stay away...but if not tonight, it could be 7-10 days before it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 25º at LAF this morning. Lowest min temp so far this Fall. The Ice Box of LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 A reversal of fortune, sort of speak, at LAF since August 1. The change to "cooler" daily departures from "warmer" departures has been rather interesting. August 1 to November 3 Above normal: 28 days Normal: 7 days Below normal: 60 days May 1 to July 31 Above normal: 63 days Normal: 6 days Below normal: 23 days Double digit daily departures at LAF for both periods. August 1 to November 3 +10 or above: 6 days -10 or below: 13 days May 1 to July 31 +10 or above: 20 days -10 or below: 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The thing that sticks out in my mind was that not only was it more sleet than I had ever seen on the ground, it was actually drifting. Yeah, absolutely to the drifting. It was really surreal. On one hand it was kinda cool to experience that much sleet...but on the other, I hope I never ever see anything like it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 BTW, I found this link yesterday: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/ Regional Snowfall Index by NCDC. It basically tries to measure/value winter storms for the eastern 2/3 of the United States, since 1900. Roughly, it's based off snowfall amounts and the area/population that was impacted. There are six regions used...Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley are the two for this sub-forum. Kinda interesting way to rank winter storms, and the first I've seen to do it outside the NESIS scale. Direct link to the rankings found here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/societal-impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I had 4-5" of sleet back on April 3-5, 2003. Truly an amazing thing to see. Almost impossible to shovel and you don't even make footprints when you walk on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Had the coldest reading of the season so far at 29°. Had some ice on the pond this morning. Sun is out, which is nice given only one day this month so far has had any appreciable sunshine. Probably will end up with more clouds tomorrow as the flow comes off the lake. People in Michigan hopefully will get a break from the clouds! Hmm, GFS is still stuck on some snow for Election night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I had 4-5" of sleet back on April 3-5, 2003. Truly an amazing thing to see. Almost impossible to shovel and you don't even make footprints when you walk on it. Almost impossible is right. By the morning/early afternoon on Feb 2 of GHD, it had congealed into a block of ice here. Only way to "shovel" it was with a "legit" steel shovel, breaking it into chunks and then moving it. Wow, what a PITA that was. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Yeah, absolutely to the drifting. It was really surreal. On one hand it was kinda cool to experience that much sleet...but on the other, I hope I never ever see anything like it again. The drifting sleet out here was just amazing, 2-3' drifts of sleet. I had a lot of fun walking on top of them. It's the main reason I'm too upset over the lack of snow with GHD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It's not every day I read a sentence containing both sleet and drifting in it! That event must have been quite loud! Doggone it - more clouds then sun now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Coldest day of the season so far. Stuck in the mid 30s all afternoon with leaden skies. Felt like snow could start falling at any moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Looks like winter out there. Overcast most of the day and all the trees are bare. Real winter weather still a long ways away though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Looks like winter out there. Overcast most of the day and all the trees are bare. Real winter weather still a long ways away though. DTW high/low of 41/28 today definitely had that wintry nip in the air. It is only November 4th, so while winter wont set in tomorrow....its not a long ways away either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 DTW high/low of 41/28 today definitely had that wintry nip in the air. It is only November 4th, so while winter wont set in tomorrow....its not a long ways away either! Bold prediction: Many members of our subforum will see their first 1"+ snow around the 18th of Nov. Of course this is not counting Bo and our MN contributors. Please save this post for bump trolling purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 DTW high/low of 41/28 today definitely had that wintry nip in the air. It is only November 4th, so while winter wont set in tomorrow....its not a long ways away either! Last season our first 1" snowfall didn't occur until almost mid January. Not saying that will happen again, since that was extremely unusual, but given the warm pattern coming up this week winter sure feels a long way away still. Hopefully we have a very active December like we did in previous seasons before last season's disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Any severe weather hopes with the weekend muggy torch? 18z GFS/12z CMC would favor areas further south on the 11th (not to mention west on the 10th) with better moisture, although I think a squall line would be possible up towards these areas with the very strong wind fields, not a very meaty chaser setup though, since anything that does develop would be flying with H7 winds in the 60-80 kt range. The Euro is just a big ole' meh with the whole thing, with a lack of a prominent surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 YYZ reporting -SN at 6.00pm. Nothing on radar and I didn't see anything when I went outside, but officially, we're on the board. I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Bold prediction: Many members of our subforum will see their first 1"+ snow around the 18th of Nov. Of course this is not counting Bo and our MN contributors. Please save this post for bump trolling purposes. That is about what I am thinking too! 46° for a high today. Looks like winter outside about. Oak trees have many leaves though, and some stubborn maple leaves holding on somehow. - Otherwise the trees are 95% bare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Bold prediction: Many members of our subforum will see their first 1"+ snow around the 18th of Nov. Of course this is not counting Bo and our MN contributors. Please save this post for bump trolling purposes. LAF had accumulating snow last November (and numerous 1"+ events have happened in past Novembers) but as a general rule I don't really expect accumulating snow until December. Helps with not getting too anxious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Spent the day putting new tile in my bathroom... Nice day, too bad I didn't have any time to take a hike. We had a few sunshines earlier, but cl ouds the rest of the day. Kids go to bed an hour earlier...like the sound of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Several sites in Indiana already AOB freezing at 9:00pm. South Bend: 29º Auburn: 30º LAF: 31º Bloomington: 32º Fort Wayne: 32º Seymour: 32º Warsaw: 32º Zionsville: 32º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Almost down to hard freeze levels. 29° right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 First accumulating snow possible on election day? Looks like a decent setup for 1-2". Still above freezing at 33 °F in Madison, more like 36 °F downtown. Coldest spot tonight so far is the Kettle Moraine, low level cloud cover seems to be controlling the temperature distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Temp is dropping quickly tonight, 29 right now. Looks like we will finally get our first hard freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 First accumulating snow possible on election day? Looks like a decent setup for 1-2". Yea, maybe up north across far N. WI/N. MI...but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yea, maybe up north across far N. WI/N. MI...but that's about it. The GFS disagrees, 1 inch snow depth down to the WI/IL border. Looks like the snowpack is encroaching upon us more or less, it's supplying lots of subfreezing air for this little wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The GFS disagrees, 1 inch snow depth down to the WI/IL border. Looks like the snowpack is encroaching upon us more or less, it's supplying lots of subfreezing air for this little wave. Timing won't be favorable, all the precip will likely be in the 12z-0z period, which is the worst time. Highs should be in the low to mid 40s, so even if there is some snow falling, it sure won't accumulate more than a trace or maybe a few tenths of an inch at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Timing won't be favorable, all the precip will likely be in the 12z-0z period, which is the worst time. Highs should be in the low to mid 40s, so even if there is some snow falling, it sure won't accumulate more than a trace or maybe a few tenths of an inch at best. If there's any decent banded precipitation snow will reach the ground with this setup. That's precisely what the GFS is showing. Formation of mesoscale cold pools via evaporational cooling does wonders for the boundary layer thermal profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 If there's any decent banded precipitation snow will reach the ground with this setup. That's precisely what the GFS is showing. Formation of mesoscale cold pools via evaporational cooling does wonders for the boundary layer thermal profile. Not to mention I remember hearing TwisterData was not very accurate in terms of thermal profiles (too bullish on snow amounts/parameters). I don't think the banding would be very intense. Just yesterday we were looking at a tenth of an inch, although stranger things have happened I guess. Edit: on second thought, this might not be so farfetched. Have a gander at the Skyvision Plus CBS 58 weather model (used by CBS 58's mets): http://fox6now.com/weather/maps-and-radar/skyvision-plus/ Shows a decent period of snow inland, with mostly a mix along the lakeshore counties. It would be nice to perhaps travel inland Tuesday morning if the roads are not dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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