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November 2012 General Discussion


SpartyOn

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There is a special weather statement for seven counties in Southern Ontario due to the lake effect snow threat calling for 2-6", but they aren't anticipating any watches or warnings at the moment. Nothing in effect here, but I'm holding out hope for at least a centimetre or two.

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Wind has been very gust and reducing vis to less than 1/4 mile at times.. Snow has again increased in intensity and gotten steadier as well.Bands starting to organize over the lake. As soon as the temp begins to drop a little more, the roads should glaze over; just wet and slushy now.

Nice band south of Petoskey!

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SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN

ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 3:53 PM EST FRIDAY 23 NOVEMBER 2012.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SNOW SQUALL WATCH FOR:

=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX

=NEW= WOODSTOCK - TILLSONBURG - OXFORD COUNTY

=NEW= HURON - PERTH

=NEW= SHELBURNE - MANSFIELD - NORTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY

=NEW= INNISFIL - NEW TECUMSETH - ANGUS

=NEW= OWEN SOUND - BLUE MOUNTAINS - NORTHERN GREY COUNTY

=NEW= BARRIE - COLLINGWOOD - HILLSDALE.

FLURRIES AND LOCAL SNOWSQUALLS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE FLURRIES AND LOCAL

SNOWSQUALLS TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY THIS

EVENING. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS

EVENING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SNOWSQUALLS WILL BE QUITE LOCALIZED. SOME PLACES CAN

EXPECT UP TO 15 CM OF SNOW WHILE OTHERS SEE ONLY A TRACE.

LOCAL NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE ALSO

FORECAST.

SNOWSQUALL WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED AS A MORE PRECISE PATH OF THE

SQUALLS CAN BE FORECAST.

MOTORISTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SLIPPERY

ROADS AND SUDDEN LOW VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING IN SOME

LOCALES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

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In like a lamb...

and out the same way.

Really disappointing. After last year's debacle I wanted things to hit the ground running this year. Just hasn't materialized though. It's not a perfect correlation, but at YYZ there is a decent tendency for snowless or near snowless Novembers to lead to below average snowfall for the season.

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and out the same way.

Really disappointing. After last year's debacle I wanted things to hit the ground running this year. Just hasn't materialized though. It's not a perfect correlation, but at YYZ there is a decent tendency for snowless or near snowless Novembers to lead to below average snowfall for the season.

Its been hard to get a real adequate pattern to develop, favorable for our region for the past few years sadly. I still have faith, its only november. And not every year ushers in a horrible Winter because of a snow-less November. 2004-05, 2003-04, 2000-01, 1998-99, 93-94, 77-78 or 75-76 are good examples. For now, i guess we can hope the pattern can become more favorable after Dec 5-10th if the AO maintains its negative state and the Pacific remains steady with an amplified jet. But atleast their isnt any deep trough across Alaska/Aleutians this year like last year, thats a good change.

Starting to see some changes developing across the Stratosphere esp with the GLAAM staying positive now,

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Its been hard to get a real adequate pattern to develop, favorable for our region for the past few years sadly. I still have faith, its only november. And not every year ushers in a horrible Winter because of a snow-less November. 2004-05, 2003-04, 2000-01, 1998-99, 93-94, 77-78 or 75-76 are good examples. For now, i guess we can hope the pattern can become more favorable after Dec 5-10th if the AO maintains its negative state and the Pacific remains steady with an amplified jet. But atleast their isnt any deep trough across Alaska/Aleutians this year like last year, thats a good change.

Starting to see some changes developing across the Stratosphere esp with the GLAAM staying positive now,

Oh yes, I'm not writing off the winter by any means. But it's not the start I had in mind and the trends over the next 10 days are not instilling a lot of confidence in me. A lot of those winters you referenced required us to pull some substantial rabbits out of our hats, which, again, doesn't exactly fill me with confidence.

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Made it to 30° during the day. The wind was brutal today though! cold.gif Cheap high of 40° at midnight. Not getting bent out of shape yet due to no snowfall forecast. Things can easily change as we get closer to December.

Yes it was!!! At least we are getting some mood flakes. I had to spend several hours repairing an excavator in the middle of a farm field. The wind chill felt like -15° rather than +15°.

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Oh yes, I'm not writing off the winter by any means. But it's not the start I had in mind and the trends over the next 10 days are not instilling a lot of confidence in me. A lot of those winters you referenced required us to pull some substantial rabbits out of our hats, which, again, doesn't exactly fill me with confidence.

Well, the 18z GFS certainly doesn't look very promising. Granted, it's just one run, but it seems to be gradually backing away from the cold medium and long range it was calling for up until a few days ago.

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Just finished all the snow equipment prep a few minutes ago. Funny how it took all week to do so. Even got the Rv winterized too, just in time by the look of it. Now to sit back and watch the models and hope for a profitable winter season.

Saw some snow dancing on the pavment on the way back from the shop. Temps are well on the way for the white stuff to stick and the puddle to freeze.

So what is the projected time for the surface temps to fall below the freeze mark?? Or is there a local forecasting tool to help?? With the cold wind and the lack of moisture content in the soil I think surface temps will drop quickly this evening.

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