Tropical Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 The EUROSIP seasonal model has updated yesterday which takes into consideration the ECMWF, UKMO, Meteo-France and NCEP longer term information and this update has changed in favour of the majority of the other seasonal forecast models and now signals a mild, wet and zonal winter period. The model for the 3 month period of D/J/F points towards higher than average pressure to the south and south-west of the UK and lower than average pressure to the north or north-west of the UK and hence a general +NAO pattern in particular. Given this update as overall combining the UKMO seasonal model with the ECMWF seasonal model and now the EUROSIP model makes, in my opinion, quite a noteworthy and powerful data set which all point towards zonal and predominantly mild this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 FYI tropical But he was referring to the UK because he is a meteorologist from there so he was talking what the weather will be like over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Man the discussion here compared to the New England winter thread is like night and day... And in your opinion Tropical, everything will eventually be a torch, even if the models were showing negative 30 degree H85 temps in a week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 16, 2012 Author Share Posted November 16, 2012 I hope your plants get a mold/fungus infestation. Dude. That was mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Winter cancel? Nice day today... little cooler then yesterday, but still manageable. Gun deer season this weekend..with the mild temps, no snowfall...i bet the deer sit tight once the bullets start flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Man the discussion here compared to the New England winter thread is like night and day... And in you opinion Tropical, everything will eventually be a torch, even if the models were showing negative 30 degree H85 temps in a week... When previously banned posters are allowed to remain on this board, this is what you get. The same old crap. Every day I get closer to logging off and never returning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Both the NAO and EPO are negative by the month's end, EPO more so. That argues for cold over the Midwest and Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 The EUROSIP seasonal model has updated yesterday which takes into consideration the ECMWF, UKMO, Meteo-France and NCEP longer term information and this update has changed in favour of the majority of the other seasonal forecast models and now signals a mild, wet and zonal winter period. The model for the 3 month period of D/J/F points towards higher than average pressure to the south and south-west of the UK and lower than average pressure to the north or north-west of the UK and hence a general +NAO pattern in particular. Given this update as overall combining the UKMO seasonal model with the ECMWF seasonal model and now the EUROSIP model makes, in my opinion, quite a noteworthy and powerful data set which all point towards zonal and predominantly mild this winter. If only it were that easy. 07-08 had substantial +NAO periods (not sure if it averaged positive) and that was anything but zonal and mild. Did you cut and paste this from somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Given this update as overall combining the UKMO seasonal model with the ECMWF seasonal model and now the EUROSIP model makes, in my opinion, quite a noteworthy and powerful data set which all point towards zonal and predominantly mild this winter. Yeah this statement is getting at the prediction for the UK region, not our region. 2007-2008 was a mild winter in Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 The EUROSIP seasonal model has updated yesterday which takes into consideration the ECMWF, UKMO, Meteo-France and NCEP longer term information and this update has changed in favour of the majority of the other seasonal forecast models and now signals a mild, wet and zonal winter period. The model for the 3 month period of D/J/F points towards higher than average pressure to the south and south-west of the UK and lower than average pressure to the north or north-west of the UK and hence a general +NAO pattern in particular. Given this update as overall combining the UKMO seasonal model with the ECMWF seasonal model and now the EUROSIP model makes, in my opinion, quite a noteworthy and powerful data set which all point towards zonal and predominantly mild this winter. Most models are showing a strong -NAO starting around the 25th of November, all forecasts beyond the next 2 weeks are about as accurate as the farmers almanac. BTW, you had your season... its our turn. You do know that there are places that have normal weather of 70 degrees in December and 90+ in July, why not move there. Its like moving to Florida and complaining about heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 When previously banned posters are allowed to remain on this board, this is what you get. The same old crap. Every day I get closer to logging off and never returning. Please don't consider quitting posting. Use ignore. Lol at my point-n-click. I don't think I've ever seen this. A one degree increase every day for 7 straight days. This Afternoon Sunny, with a high near 51. Calm wind. Saturday Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 52. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 53. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 54. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 56. Thanksgiving Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Made it to 50 today. Turning a little foggy/hazy now. Forecast is about as boring as IWX's. Little cooler due to the lake. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 53. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 54. South wind around 10 mph. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 54. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 56. Thanksgiving Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 07-08 was a typical La Nina pattern upstream. Up and down, up and down up and down with a more active STJ than normal. Last year was zonal and mild. Calling Wishing for a repeat I guess. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 50s and sun. Perfect this time of the year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Rooting hard for a 60 next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 When previously banned posters are allowed to remain on this board, this is what you get. The same old crap. Every day I get closer to logging off and never returning. Yeah I have to agree here on all parts, It is getting very hard to want to post around here when the trash remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Both the NAO and EPO are negative by the month's end, EPO more so. That argues for cold over the Midwest and Great Lakes. The GFS is sticking to its guns, I have mentioned to my snowmobile partner to be "Ready" for a possible LES chase sometime between November 25th and Dec 2nd. I'm not expecting anything historic, but enough to play in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Jonger..snow storm chasing snowmobiles here too.. CFS And JAMSTEC models now align with weatherbell forecast map of upper Midwest and east cold anomalies for December. At least with cold you get LES you can ride..even if it is with every sled from 10 states around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Jonger..snow storm chasing snowmobiles here too.. CFS And JAMSTEC models now align with weatherbell forecast map of upper Midwest and east cold anomalies for December. At least with cold you get LES you can ride..even if it is with every sled from 10 states around... Welcome! I noticed the JAMSTEC update today - quite a switch! Eastern 2/3rds of the country gets put in the freezer this winter. Nice to see the dry anomalies moved away from the region on the CPC's outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Jonger..snow storm chasing snowmobiles here too..CFS And JAMSTEC models now align with weatherbell forecast map of upper Midwest and east cold anomalies for December. At least with cold you get LES you can ride..even if it is with every sled from 10 states around... I really want Wisconsin and Minnesota to get hit good, to spread the crowd out more. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Harry mentioned on his board earlier that the Euro weeklies definitely have us in the freezer starting right around December 1st. So thats good news. Also, nice to have an update for the UK winter, I was most concerned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Yeah this statement is getting at the prediction for the UK region, not our region. 2007-2008 was a mild winter in Europe. Yes, the Euro SIPS showed a warm winter for the UK...it shows a cold winter though for the northern tier of the US from the upper plains through the upper/central lakes and New England. More like normal for the southern lakes. Very gradient-like pattern. Below average heights from James Bay and Ontario/Quebec with above average heights reaching just south of Chicago....battle ground in between. Take it FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 He was the chief meteorologist on WDIV before initially retring (late 1970s/early 1980s?) then during the forecasts on WWJ. very cool! rip sonny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Yes, the Euro SIPS showed a warm winter for the UK...it shows a cold winter though for the northern tier of the US from the upper plains through the upper/central lakes and New England. More like normal for the southern lakes. Very gradient-like pattern. Below average heights from James Bay and Ontario/Quebec with above average heights reaching just south of Chicago....battle ground in between. Take it FWIW. Hey, a normal winter is fine with me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Hey, a normal winter is fine with me! Yeah, I just was trying to correct the misconception that the Euro SIPS showed a warm winter for the northern tier of the US including the Lakes. It does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Yes, the Euro SIPS showed a warm winter for the UK...it shows a cold winter though for the northern tier of the US from the upper plains through the upper/central lakes and New England. More like normal for the southern lakes. Very gradient-like pattern. Below average heights from James Bay and Ontario/Quebec with above average heights reaching just south of Chicago....battle ground in between. Take it FWIW. These gradient patterns tend to eventually yield nicely for this region. I would be concerned about ice storms this winter, something that this region hasn't had to experience in a while region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 These gradient patterns tend to eventually yield nicely for this region. I would be concerned about ice storms this winter, something that this region hasn't had to experience in a while region wide. Yeah they are good for New England too...2007-2008 and 2008-2009 were both gradient patterns, with '07-'08 being a sharper gradient. We had a horrible ice storm in Dec '08...I think later that same winter was the big one south of your guys in KY and southern IN/IL/MO. It will be interesting to see how it starts to shape out. The Euro SIPS was really hitting it hard with a big +NAO that extended way back to Hudson Bay to the point where it kept the northern tier cold. Especially since it did not have a hostile Pacific. Ridging in AK. The Euro weeklies certainly do not start off winter that way, but its only a couple weeks in December they show. But they have a -NAO...still ridging in the EPO region though, so it is still cold, but it just extends further south and east on the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 This next entire week look beautiful for mid-late November, 50's with a slow but steady increase all the way through. Wow. I definitely will be enjoying it, but I dread the idea of another snowless winter. It probably wont have any effect in the long run, but it just feels so similar to how last winter began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Remember how much you got? I see 8.8" at the Toronto city site and 8.2" at YYZ. Definitely an impressive November snowstorm. 7.4". The snow was very wet on the Sunday and was compacting like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 There were some good looking system snow tracks for northern MN and northern WI which come December January would help spread things out...just leave room for me to come to Gaylord for some LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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