Jonger Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Actually just 2 years ago we would have still been using the old normals. I didn't realize November "warmed up" that much here, but when I saw the F6 this morning I thought to myself, wow has it really been that cold? Regardless, this week looks coolish and by then the departures will be set in stone; it would take a mega torch to put November into the warm category. After last year's travesty of a winter, I have put aside some extra time and money for any last minute travel arrangements so that I'm guaranteed a blockbuster storm this winter. Basically I'm going to plan my winter vacation around a snowstorm. If it looks like a 2' blizzard is going to hit Denver, I'll fly there beforehand and make a vacation out of it. Massive blizzard in MSP in January? I'm there. Another GHD type storm in Chicago? I'm there. Massive inland nor'easter in Albany? I'm there. I'm no longer going to wait for the big one to hit IMBY. The trick will be figuring out which storm in the US is worth holding out for/occurs partially over a weekend. November warmed more than any other month over the last 10 years. Most months in the great lakes region were insignificant to just slightly more then noise. I think February's have cooled during the past 10 years, the opposite direction of November. The US Climate division has been revising up all temps as well... (controversially). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 November warmed more than any other month over the last 10 years. Most months in the great lakes region were insignificant to just slightly more then noise. I think February's have cooled during the past 10 years, the opposite direction of November. The US Climate division has been revising up all temps as well... (controversially). I think that's a good assessment. There's been some pretty harsh February's in the last decade. 49° today made it only the 3rd day above normal this month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Actually just 2 years ago we would have still been using the old normals. I didn't realize November "warmed up" that much here, but when I saw the F6 this morning I thought to myself, wow has it really been that cold? Regardless, this week looks coolish and by then the departures will be set in stone; it would take a mega torch to put November into the warm category. After last year's travesty of a winter, I have put aside some extra time and money for any last minute travel arrangements so that I'm guaranteed a blockbuster storm this winter. Basically I'm going to plan my winter vacation around a snowstorm. If it looks like a 2' blizzard is going to hit Denver, I'll fly there beforehand and make a vacation out of it. Massive blizzard in MSP in January? I'm there. Another GHD type storm in Chicago? I'm there. Massive inland nor'easter in Albany? I'm there. I'm no longer going to wait for the big one to hit IMBY. The trick will be figuring out which storm in the US is worth holding out for/occurs partially over a weekend. Thats a very cool idea! Follow the monster storm for vacation. I couldnt do that because of work, I have to plan my vacations. I plan a trip in Feb and base where I go on who has the deepest snow, but a storm obviously is a last minute thing. i suppose if everything fell into place JUST right (I usually get 3 days off a week) it might work. hopefully it hits Detroit this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 November warmed more than any other month over the last 10 years. Most months in the great lakes region were insignificant to just slightly more then noise. I think February's have cooled during the past 10 years, the opposite direction of November. The US Climate division has been revising up all temps as well... (controversially). February has definitely cooled the past 10 years (and November has warmed). the thing is, theres always a lag-time on the trends when you look at normals. The coldest winters of any 30-yr normal set (since they started in the early 1900s) were the 1961-90 normals. So climo f6 reports in the 1990s (a mild decade) had the hardest time of any point in Detroits record to have a colder than normal winter. Conversely...the mildest winters? The 1931-60 normals. So the '60s, which had some cold winters, had the easiest time at any point in Detroits record to have a colder than normal winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I'll have to check the exact numbers, but what's funny about the past 3-4 months is Detroit is still likely on track for its warmest year on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I'll have to check the exact numbers, but what's funny about the past 3-4 months is Detroit is still likely on track for its warmest year on record. After July I thought theyd shatter their warmest year on record, but now its going to be SUPER close. Will totally depend what happens in December. Through October 31st, Detroit was outpacing 1998 (the warmest year on record) by 0.7F. But mean temps that in 1998 were 43.8F in Nov and 35.3F in Dec. Barring historic December cold, 2012 will finish either 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Im with Trent, this is DEFINITELY the worst time of year. During a boring stretch, yes, late Feb isnt all that, but I will take my chances ANY day in late-Feb/early-Mar over Nov. First of all, the chance of heavy snowfall is MUCH greater in early Mar than in Nov, MUCH greater. And even if it is boring, we have at least already had winter weather, whereas in November everyone is antsy in anticipation of the first storm. I do agree that theres tons of fun stuff to do during the holiday season and nothing in early March, I was talking strictly a weather perspective. Also, late feb is USUALLY the BEST time to go north for their peak snow depths of the season. Whats funny is, when you think about the length of winter as whole, in the end we could have what is deemed a good winter, but it might not get going for another MONTH. Do I think that will happen? No. But TONS of winters dont get going til mid-Dec or even later, and yes this includes many blockbuster years (see 1981-82). So WEATHERWISE, this is the most anxious time of year, for sure (though not the most hated, that goes to mid-summer). Yeah but in Usually by late February and early March we're all just ready for some non gray weather where we can get out of the house. Winter gets old after awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I'll have to check the exact numbers, but what's funny about the past 3-4 months is Detroit is still likely on track for its warmest year on record. March was SOOO above normal that even average from there on out would probably resulted in a top 5 warmest. April through October has been +1.0 using 1980-2010 averages. It is what it is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 February has definitely cooled the past 10 years (and November has warmed). the thing is, theres always a lag-time on the trends when you look at normals. The coldest winters of any 30-yr normal set (since they started in the early 1900s) were the 1961-90 normals. So climo f6 reports in the 1990s (a mild decade) had the hardest time of any point in Detroits record to have a colder than normal winter. Conversely...the mildest winters? The 1931-60 normals. So the '60s, which had some cold winters, had the easiest time at any point in Detroits record to have a colder than normal winter. That 1970's cool period gave fits to gauge temps until 1980-2010 came out. Here is 1930-1950 compared to 1980-2010.. Dead even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 A bit colder than last night, already down to 32 °F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I think it was Chicagowx who posted his boring point the other day. I sure hasn't changed much, except for a warmup to above normal temps: Today Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 49. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming east after midnight. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 50. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 29. East wind around 5 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 52. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 34. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 39. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 56. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. Thanksgiving Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 10 years ago today was the start of the best November snowstorm I've ever experienced, and the kickoff to a great winter overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 10 years ago today was the start of the best November snowstorm I've ever experienced, and the kickoff to a great winter overall. Best part about that snowstorm is that it snowed during the Toronto Santa Claus Parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Best part about that snowstorm is that it snowed during the Toronto Santa Claus Parade. Won't see that this year I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Midway through November temp departures in Indiana. BMG: -5.7º EVV: -4.2º EYE: -5.5º FWA: -4.3º GEZ: -4.8º GSH: -3.0º HUF: -3.4º IND: -5.3º IWX: -3.5º LAF: -6.1º MIE: -5.2º SBN: -3.7º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 16, 2012 Author Share Posted November 16, 2012 Long time Detroit radio weatherman Sunny Elliot has passed away. He was 91. He will be missed and im sure him and Ernie Harwell are having a decent conversatiom ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Best part about that snowstorm is that it snowed during the Toronto Santa Claus Parade. Yup. I don't think there have even been mood flakes for the SCP since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Long time Detroit radio weatherman Sunny Elliot has passed away. He was 91. He will be missed and im sure him and Ernie Harwell are having a decent conversatiom ATM He was the chief meteorologist on WDIV before initially retring (late 1970s/early 1980s?) then during the forecasts on WWJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 10 years ago today was the start of the best November snowstorm I've ever experienced, and the kickoff to a great winter overall. Remember how much you got? I see 8.8" at the Toronto city site and 8.2" at YYZ. Definitely an impressive November snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 16, 2012 Author Share Posted November 16, 2012 He was the chief meteorologist on WDIV before initially retring (late 1970s/early 1980s?) then during the forecasts on WWJ. He was of the old school. Big loss and sad day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Look familiar? Pretty good signal this far out for a "shorts and flip flops" Thanksgiving. Hint, + departures at that range tend to get worse...or better depending on your perspective. Even so, big +AO spike, MJO into unfavorable phases, etc..."consistent" mild/warm pattern should start around the 16-17th. Hopefully it's relatively short lived and we see a change towards month's end. Hopefully. As I said, departures tend to grow the closer we get. Not bad. Not perfect, but not bad. So, let's go out in time again. Different look no doubt. Some of the individual ensembles have impressive cold shots here. I guess the important thing to me would be the colder departures seeping south in Canada. Latest Euro weeklies would seem to agree with this timeframe taking a turn to cold as we enter December. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Some of those December maps are nuts with the cold! - like p05 and c00. About the same amount of cold this morning. Low 27°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 If that cold pans out, I might have to fire up the wood stove in the greenhouse. I have orange and lemon trees in there in bloom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 If that cold pans out, I might have to fire up the wood stove in the greenhouse. I have orange and lemon trees in there in bloom! I hope your plants get a mold/fungus infestation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Coldest first 15 days of November at IND since 1997. I'll throw in 1996 as well, but here's the average temperature rankings of coldest starts below...since 1996. Average max/min temps in ( ). 37.5º (45.0º/29.9º) in 1996 38.9º (43.7º/34.0º) in 1997 41.7º (51.3º/32.0º) in 2012 43.7º (51.3º/36.1º) in 1998 44.5º (52.1º/36.9º) in 2002 44.8º (51.9º/37.7º) in 2006 46.3º (55.8º/36.8º) in 2007 46.8º (55.9º/37.8º) in 2004 47.9º (55.6º/40.2º) in 2000 48.3º (57.0º/39.5º) in 2003 48.5º (60.3º/36.7º) in 2010 50.0º (58.0º/42.0º) in 2008 50.2º (60.8º/39.6º) in 2009 50.4º (62.7º/38.1º) in 2001 52.2º (61.3º/43.1º) in 2011 52.4º (63.9º/40.8º) in 1999 53.0º (63.9º/42.0º) in 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Coldest first 15 days of November at IND since 1997. I'll throw in 1996 as well, but here's the average temperature rankings of coldest starts below...since 1996. Average max/min temps in ( ). 37.5º (45.0º/29.9º) in 1996 38.9º (43.7º/34.0º) in 1997 41.7º (51.3º/32.0º) in 2012 43.7º (51.3º/36.1º) in 1998 44.5º (52.1º/36.9º) in 2002 44.8º (51.9º/37.7º) in 2006 46.3º (55.8º/36.8º) in 2007 46.8º (55.9º/37.8º) in 2004 47.9º (55.6º/40.2º) in 2000 48.5º (60.3º/36.7º) in 2010 50.0º (58.0º/42.0º) in 2008 50.2º (60.8º/39.6º) in 2009 50.4º (62.7º/38.1º) in 2001 52.2º (61.3º/43.1º) in 2011 52.4º (63.9º/40.8º) in 1999 53.0º (63.9º/42.0º) in 2005 What about 03? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Midway through November temp departures in Indiana. BMG: -5.7º EVV: -4.2º EYE: -5.5º FWA: -4.3º GEZ: -4.8º GSH: -3.0º HUF: -3.4º IND: -5.3º IWX: -3.5º LAF: -6.1º MIE: -5.2º SBN: -3.7º Should chip away quite a bit in the coming days though maybe not enough to get into positive territory by the end of the month...at least at LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I hope your plants get a mold/fungus infestation. We hope you crash your snowmobile into a tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 What about 03? Forgot to put it in...it's there now. That's what she said. Ay oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 We hope you crash your snowmobile into a tree. At least its a nice even trade-off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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