Jonger Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That's too far south... I believe last winters low heights were farther north... Plus, its not even November yet.... Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The winter I was born! (Feb) From what I heard from my parents it was quite the winter! Yes it was...especially in the Upper Midwest! I believe 1981-82 is considered the benchmark winter for Minneapolis. 95.0" of snow for the season (including 46.4" in January), and numerous cold outbreaks throughout DJFM. Two incredible things happened in Minneapolis that winter, which I can honestly say will never happen again in our lifetimes: (1) 130 consecutive days of 1" or more snowcover...from 11/19/1981 through 3/28/1982 (2) Two 17" snowstorms in a 3-day period (17.1" on 1/20/1982, then another 17.2" on 1/22/1982). This was the highlight of a 14-day period which featured 43.1" of snow (1/12/1982 - 1/25/1982), including a peak snow depth of 38" on 1/23/1982 Here are the dailies from MSP between 1/6/1982 and 1/17/1982...just a bit chilly: 1/6: -1/-14 1/7: 5/-20 1/8: 14/-10 1/9: -10/-23 1/10: 0/-26* 1/11: 6/-3 1/12: 10/-2 1/13: 7/-10 1/14: 0/-21 1/15: 10/-16 1/16: -16/-23 1/17: 8/-23 * This day was -26 in Chicago, their 2nd coldest temp on record The arctic outbreaks that winter in the Midwest were incredible...not just bitterly cold, but windy too. Per the website below: "On January 9th and 10th, 1982 temperatures of -30 and winds of around 40mph were reported in Northern Minnesota. This would translate to -71 by the new formula (-100F by the old formula.)" http://www.climate.umn.edu/doc/twin_cities/record_windchill.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I wonder if ORD will drop below freezing the next few nights...it should be close. So far, their coldest temp this season has been 32F on 10/8. I guess this could go in the October thread...but close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 The extended looks blah....GOA is calling the shots ATM. Could have an unwanted mild spell. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The extended looks blah....GOA is calling the shots ATM. Could have an unwanted mild spell. We shall see. looking great for a white deer gun hunting season in wi to me.. get your beanie and face mask out for the 2nd half of november. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 looking great for a white deer gun hunting season in wi to me.. get your beanie and face mask out for the 2nd half of november. I heard much of the Milwaukee area saw a minute or two of flurries this morning, did you? Of course, I woke up shortly after the burst of flurries lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 looking great for a white deer gun hunting season in wi to me.. get your beanie and face mask out for the 2nd half of november. Thank God! I'm tired of warm opening days.... I almost vomited from heat exhaustion climbing into a peg stand a few years ago. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Thank God! I'm tired of warm opening days.... I almost vomited from heat exhaustion climbing into a peg stand a few years ago. Jon How hot was it? 60, 70? I didn't realize how debilitating heat on opening day of deer season could be, but I guess with all the gear you have, it's not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Thank God! I'm tired of warm opening days.... I almost vomited from heat exhaustion climbing into a peg stand a few years ago. Jon Time to get a gym membership. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Time to get a gym membership. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The 1981-82 winter was legendary...the best winter that no one remembers...lol. We got our analog! From Trent in the Sandy thread. Lock it in then. Another fun little weather anomaly from Sandy here: it looks like the high will be 42 and the low 41. The last time there was a one degree spread from high to low was November 28, 1981 when it was 37/36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Fantasy land snowstorm on the 12z GFS...hours 276+: http://www.meteo.psu...z/mrfloop2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSNW3 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Fantasy land snowstorm on the 12z GFS...hours 276+: http://www.meteo.psu...z/mrfloop2.html That time frame makes perfect sense. Give or take a day or two. Long to medium range models tend to be a little early. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20120921.html (51-ish days + 1 or 2 days) Current cycle length as I see it around 51-53 days. http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/ LRC is a powerful tool when putting faith in the long/medium range model output. Trend profiles for Oshkosh, WI support precip chances with temps near/below freezing mark during the overnight. This conclusion also supports the models being 1-2 days quick in the med/long range theory as well... we'll see! http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/theory/trends/1213-OSH.html The Oshkosh trend is the beta testing trend. All other cities will be initialized Nov-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 And the final verdict? Torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 And the final verdict? Torch! Several of the GFS ensemble members show that you could see a rain/snow mix or all snow at times this weekend, particularly Saturday night into the first half of Sunday. Looking at the next couple weeks, temps look to average at or slighlty below normal. Some warm periods, but also several cold shots/periods look likely, perhaps a bit of a rollercoaster overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 Several of the GFS ensemble members show that you could see a rain/snow mix or all snow at times this weekend, particularly Saturday night into the first half of Sunday. Looking at the next couple weeks, temps look to average at or slighlty below normal. Some warm periods, but also several cold shots/periods look likely, perhaps a bit of a rollercoaster overall. It looks awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Let's seeeeeeee, hmmmmm,, My call: NOVEMBER 2012:temperature 40° (3° below avg. east, 1° above west); precipitation 1.5" (1" below avg.); Nov 1-5: Sunny, then showers, mild; Nov 6-8: Lake snows, cold; Nov 9-16: Periods of rain and snow, chilly; Nov 17-19: Sunny, mild; Nov 20-24: Snow showers, cold; Nov 25-30: Heavy rain, then showers, mild. Source: http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 Let's seeeeeeee, hmmmmm,, My call: NOVEMBER 2012:temperature 40° (3° below avg. east, 1° above west); precipitation 1.5" (1" below avg.); Nov 1-5: Sunny, then showers, mild; Nov 6-8: Lake snows, cold; Nov 9-16: Periods of rain and snow, chilly; Nov 17-19: Sunny, mild; Nov 20-24: Snow showers, cold; Nov 25-30: Heavy rain, then showers, mild. Source: http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/6 Lots a chatter about a serious round of late Indian Summer as we progress into the 10-15 cycle. The GFS gave a preview earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 It looks awful. Okay, Mr. Pessimistic. Looks like a rain/snow disturbance or two this weekend in the Great Lakes region, then a slightly warmer than normal period next week with a big storm for the following weekend bringing down another likely cold blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 Okay, Mr. Pessimistic. Looks like a rain/snow disturbance or two this weekend in the Great Lakes region, then a slightly warmer than normal period next week with a big storm for the following weekend bringing down another likely cold blast. 582 heights isn't slightly warmer than normal. But being fair it's in the fantasy bull **** range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 582 heights isn't slightly warmer than normal. But being fair it's in the fantasy bull **** range. Care to show us where 582dm heights get up into this region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Torch away plz. Heading down to Florida the first week of Nov till 18th. Hard to plow when you sit 24hrs away by truck. NTM will be driving the salt truck down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Since we are talking about it....1981-82 at Detroit ranks as the 3rd snowiest winter on record (74"), ahead of 2007-08 (71.7") and behind only 1925-26 (78.0") and 1880-81 (93.6"). It was an awesome winter, because it was LONG, and featured heavy snow and extreme cold. Have a few old pics i found, my mom took in late Jan or early Feb 1982 Speaking of 1981-82....I see the usual "November is arriving and snowstorms arent kicking off the month" anxiety starting to build..so a little note. Such a winter of lore, and it really didnt kick into high gear until mid-Dec here. Oct was much colder than normal, with a few days of flakes (including a 0.1" on Oct 23rd). November was slightly milder than normal, with only one day featuring measurable snow (0.7" on Nov 20th) and only 3 more days with a T. Then the first half of Dec was milder than normal (a few cold days) with only traces of snow. The months first measurable snow, 0.1", fell on Dec 16th. So here we are, Dec 16th and we are sitting at 0.9" on the season. Not much to talk about huh? Then on Dec 17th, a 1.5" snowfall ushered in arctic air and the brutally cold and snowy winter commenced. with fun almost nonstop from then until mid-April (just a brief bout of spring in late March). Granted that was far from a normal winter...moral of the story...as anxious as we all are, winter does NOT usually kick in before Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 06z GFS says first flakes are possible saturday morning. NAM says not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 12z GFS not showing much precip this weekend, but still a chance for some cold sprinkles or flurries... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 DLL - 12z GFS gives you a couple tenths Saturday morning! About an inch for Turtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Geos, it shows a quarter inch at best for Madison and Milwaukee. Nice attempt at sugarcoating the prospects, but it wont work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 This was awesome...we only picked up a few inches here, but up north it was a pig... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 DLL, did you have an ice storm from the 91 system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 DVN mentions the possibility of wet snow flakes on Sunday. If so that would be the first of the season here. ...BUT THEN THE COMBINATION OF THE SHORTWAVE...LINGERING MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY AND CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP GET SHOWERS GOING...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES GET DOWN INTO THE -3 TO -5C RANGE...AND WE ARE BEGINNING TO GET INTO THE TERRITORY WHERE SNOW SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... THIS IS PRETTY FAR OUT FOR THIS RIGHT NOW AND WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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