Hoosier Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I'm bump trolling myself, but I might be eating my lol if we don't get some positive temp departures soon. MKE's probably gonna have top see the big dog to get to 12" though. Never fear, positive departures look to be on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 12Z gfs doesn't seem to show much precip through the rest of the month... Looks mild through Thanksgiving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 12Z gfs doesn't seem to show much precip through the rest of the month... Looks mild through Thanksgiving... Mild winter incoming. Core of winter will be out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 The 12z runs bringing panic to the boards from NE to the mountain west. Still, to write off a season before it even starts is uncalled for. Wait until Jan before pulling the plug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Mild winter incoming. Core of winter will be out west lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 lol This ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 The 12z runs bringing panic to the boards from NE to the mountain west. Still, to write off a season before it even starts is uncalled for. Wait until Jan before pulling the plug. For those who DO live and die by each model run, I dont understand panic, because 12z GFS was much colder in the LR than its 00z run was and the CFS daily circus has been running MUCH cooler than a few days ago when torchartie posted that crazy torch map (though the 12z EURO was much warmer than its 00z run). Anyone who panics over a LR run doesnt have the stomach for a weather board lol (trends are one thing, specific runs are just a big old L-O-L). I agree its uncalled for, but every winter has been written off hundreds of times before it starts since weather boards have been in existence, and it will never change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 This ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 This has to be the worst time of year for weather enthusiasts. The fall foliage is long gone. The trees are barren. The days are short. The winter recreation sites are closed. The seasonal summer activities and places have shut down. The days are cloudy. The days are windy. It's been months since it snowed. The TV is full of political crap. The TV is full of Christmas ads. We wait with bated breath for snow and the start of the winter season ... by posting every model map imaginable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 This has to be the worst time of year for weather enthusiasts. The fall foliage is long gone. The trees are barren. The days are short. The winter recreation sites are closed. The seasonal summer activities and places have shut down. The days are cloudy. The days are windy. It's been months since it snowed. The TV is full of political crap. The TV is full of Christmas ads. We wait with bated breath for snow and the start of the winter season ... by posting every model map imaginable! Good post (dont forget the Christmas music...TWO stations going non-stop Christmas in Detroit, 100.3 and 105.1, and yes I HAVE been listening ). One thing that NO model run can change is the fact that with each passing day, we are getting closer and closer to winter. No model can change time. And time is heading towards winter. As BORING as the weather has been, with an absence of almost any significant weather (outside of the cold front on Mon) much less snow, lets not forget, we ARE in a below-normal temperature pattern in November, after Aug-Oct all oscillated from slightly above to slightly below normal (depending on location). Remember those thoughts from some in summer that the above normal pattern would NEVER end? Well, it has. And as we get closer to winter, snow is coming. Now, you can be in an awesome pattern where it is literally snowing every day, the lakes filling in the voids on synoptically quiet days, or you can be in a horrible pattern where a sloppy wet snow falls but melts the next day, or anywhere in between. What kind of pattern we will be in, who knows, but snow IS coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I took a nice bike ride in the dark. Still 48F out... south wind blowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 @ Trent and Freak. I would have to say this time of year is probably the most unexciting. We have ended the above normal month stretch, so that's something to be happy about! Shouldn't have a probably problem being below normal this month unless the Chinook winds really go nuts next week. About 36° here tonight. Not exactly a torch like DLL is experiencing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Just a little bit different today versus last year on this date. Max/min temps from 11/14/11 and 11/14/12. BMG: 72/55...44/24 EVV: 76/59...47/27 EYE: 70/52...41/26 FWA: 69/44...40/21 GEZ: 72/57...43/25 HUF: 72/54...44/25 IND: 71/55...41/27 LAF: 72/46...42/24 MIE: 70/53...41/23 SBN: 51/42...41/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 This has to be the worst time of year for weather enthusiasts. The fall foliage is long gone. The trees are barren. The days are short. The winter recreation sites are closed. The seasonal summer activities and places have shut down. The days are cloudy. The days are windy. It's been months since it snowed. The TV is full of political crap. The TV is full of Christmas ads. We wait with bated breath for snow and the start of the winter season ... by posting every model map imaginable! No the worst time of year IMO is during late February-March during a boring stretch. It's just always gray, everything is dirty from melting snow, and there is absolutely nothing going on except Basketball. At least there's fun things to do during Holiday season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 No the worst time of year IMO is during late February-March during a boring stretch. It's just always gray, everything is dirty from melting snow, and there is absolutely nothing going on except Basketball. At least there's fun things to do during Holiday season I disagree. This is among the worst time of year, with late February and March not even being on the radar screen since they usually feature volatile swings in weather, and the occasional severe weather outbreak is also possible. I think mid-late September is the worst. The one thing that saves mid November is basketball, ironically. Not being a big fan of football, there is almost nothing to do in mid-late September, allergies are going strong, the weather is boring, I used to be into the swing of the daily school routine with no vacations since there are no holidays during the period, etc. That's also when colds and the flu start going around due to vigorous cold fronts and up and down temp swings. However, this discussion might be for a different thread anyway. If people are interested, we could make one on the worst time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 11 days with min temps of 32º or lower at LAF this November. This already beats the paltry totals of Nov 2001, 2004, 2009 and 2011...and ties 2003 and 2006. And it's the most amount of days of 32º or lower through the 15th of the month of any Nov, going back to 2000. Nov 2012: 11 days Nov 2011: 6 days (3 thru 11/15) Nov 2010: 17 days (5 thru 11/15) Nov 2009: 5 days (3 thru 11/15) Nov 2008: 18 days (3 thru 11/15) Nov 2007: 17 days (8 thru 11/15) Nov 2006: 11 days (6 thru 11/15) Nov 2005: 16 days (3 thru 11/15) Nov 2004: 6 days (5 thru 11/15) Nov 2003: 11 days (7 thru 11/15) Nov 2002: 18 days (6 thru 11/15) Nov 2001: 7 days (5 thru 11/15) Nov 2000: 16 days (4 thru 11/15) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I disagree. This is among the worst time of year, with late February and March not even being on the radar screen since they usually feature volatile swings in weather, and the occasional severe weather outbreak is also possible. I think mid-late September is the worst. The one thing that saves mid November is basketball, ironically. Not being a big fan of football, there is almost nothing to do in mid-late September, allergies are going strong, the weather is boring, I used to be into the swing of the daily school routine with no vacations since there are no holidays during the period, etc. That's also when colds and the flu start going around due to vigorous cold fronts and up and down temp swings. However, this discussion might be for a different thread anyway. If people are interested, we could make one on the worst time of year. SMH. Still my second favorite season but fall here near the lake is definitely my most boring time for weather especially the last 17 yrs of nickle and dime November snow only.. Torchartie says soon we'll be losing Dec and March is now called Morch by CT Blizz. Sucks we lost the below normal temps for the upcoming deer season but the below normal while we were up in NW WI. bow hunting was very welcomed just wish we could have scored a little more of the white stuff. We did down three deer though so the freezer is packed and there is no pressure this gun deer season....just kick back in our blaze orange banana hammocks and hope a Horny Wall hanger something like this one in my uncles back yard 3 miles from here in Oak Creek is out on the prowl for some tail and makes a mistake. Hopefully when we get back next wed there will be something on the horizon wintery to track. Normally it seems like that last week of Nov can be hot especially up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 What will be unusual for this month is if we maintain a respectable negative temperature departure but don't get any measurable snow. All of the -2 or colder Novembers featured decent measurable snows. In fact, they averaged 7" for the month, compared with 1.2" for Novembers that were +2 or warmer. No cold November had less than an inch fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 What will be unusual for this month is if we maintain a respectable negative temperature departure but don't get any measurable snow. All of the -2 or colder Novembers featured decent measurable snows. In fact, they averaged 7" for the month, compared with 1.2" for Novembers that were +2 or warmer. No cold November had less than an inch fall. Be careful about putting too much emphasis on stats like these. A "normal" November today would have been 2.1 degrees above normal just two years ago. In fact, based on my temperature database going back to 1855 (official NWS/Weather Bureau records to 1871, then the Alfred Hyde records from 1855 to 1870), a "normal" November would tie for the 39th warmest out of 157 months. This would place a "normal" November in the upper quartile for warmth. I would think a better comparison would be to look at the months in terms of absolute temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Gorgeous day today...low 50Fs, sun, very little wind... Outside most of the afternoon...another bike ride this evening maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Be careful about putting too much emphasis on stats like these. A "normal" November today would have been 2.1 degrees above normal just two years ago. In fact, based on my temperature database going back to 1855 (official NWS/Weather Bureau records to 1871, then the Alfred Hyde records from 1855 to 1870), a "normal" November would tie for the 39th warmest out of 157 months. This would place a "normal" November in the upper quartile for warmth. I would think a better comparison would be to look at the months in terms of absolute temperatures. Take this garbage to the climate change forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I took a nice bike ride in the dark. Still 48F out... south wind blowing. Gotta keep the workouts going all year, that's why I got an elliptical in my apartment. Sunny and in the mid 50s, can't complain. My kitty has been basking in the sunlight coming through the window all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Take this garbage to the climate change forum. ? Entropy was just stating facts. For many places in the U.S., the NCDC 1981-2010 normals are 1-2 F warmer than the 1971-2000 normals. Bottom line - it all depends on your base period...and it does make more sense to compare absolute temperatures as opposed to departures from normal. As an example, the 30-year "normal" high/low in mid-Jan. at ORD used to be 29/13, but now it's 31/16. That's a 2.5 degree difference, which is significant. So, a +3 departure for a mid-January day in 2012 would have been a +5.5 departure in the past. Of course, I and/or others may be misunderstanding the point of your post...so feel free to clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Take this garbage to the climate change forum. Hilariously terrible post by an equally terrible poster. Do us all a favor and trash up another forum if you can't handle facts. Welcome to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 alot of the so called 'cold' is radiational cooling as night due to calm, clear skies. As Bastardi would say, the upper levels would say something different, it hasn't been that cold. The UHI factor today (at first order climate sites) is so much more overpowering than the radiational cooling. We actually havent had as many good radiational cooling days here (cloudiness) as to our west, but yesterday was a good radiational cooling day. High/low at DTW was 41F/25F. The EXACT same setup 30 years ago at DTW ould have yielded a similar high (40-42F) but a low of like 19-20F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Gorgeous day today...low 50Fs, sun, very little wind... Outside most of the afternoon...another bike ride this evening maybe. Same here. Another in a string of gorgeous "blue sky" days. Reminds me of more classical October weather. Really nice to work in. We've been radiating nicely at night, which has kept the average temps from getting out of hand. Cold air buildup in Canada has been universally advertised, but unless we get some meridional flow it won't do us much good for snowfall. Another factor is the severe drought in the Plains. Although drought feedback processes are weaker in winter, they are still present in the form of reduced moisture (and resultant cloud cover) and faster air mass moderation during the day time from greater sensible heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Take this garbage to the climate change forum. Taking a close look at temperature trends, and I have stated this numerous times, the two distinct trends in Detroit are Marches and Novembers are much milder now than 50-100+ years ago (DTWs old Nov norm was 40.7F, the new one is 41.5F). Its an interesting trend because for one, the dead of winter is just as cold now (avg-wise) as it used to be, and Octobers are actually a bit cooler, so its interesting to see the November uptick in between. But regardless, this has been a colder than normal November by ANY stretch of the imagination or set of normals you can find. Clevelands increase of 2.1F in November (one of the highest Ive seen) means that this November that sits at -5.2F in 2012 would have sat at -3.1F ten years ago. So I find it funny that parallels to 2001 and 2011 have been made in recent days, two of the warmest Novembers on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 No the worst time of year IMO is during late February-March during a boring stretch. It's just always gray, everything is dirty from melting snow, and there is absolutely nothing going on except Basketball. At least there's fun things to do during Holiday season Im with Trent, this is DEFINITELY the worst time of year. During a boring stretch, yes, late Feb isnt all that, but I will take my chances ANY day in late-Feb/early-Mar over Nov. First of all, the chance of heavy snowfall is MUCH greater in early Mar than in Nov, MUCH greater. And even if it is boring, we have at least already had winter weather, whereas in November everyone is antsy in anticipation of the first storm. I do agree that theres tons of fun stuff to do during the holiday season and nothing in early March, I was talking strictly a weather perspective. Also, late feb is USUALLY the BEST time to go north for their peak snow depths of the season. Whats funny is, when you think about the length of winter as whole, in the end we could have what is deemed a good winter, but it might not get going for another MONTH. Do I think that will happen? No. But TONS of winters dont get going til mid-Dec or even later, and yes this includes many blockbuster years (see 1981-82). So WEATHERWISE, this is the most anxious time of year, for sure (though not the most hated, that goes to mid-summer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Taking a close look at temperature trends, and I have stated this numerous times, the two distinct trends in Detroit are Marches and Novembers are much milder now than 50-100+ years ago (DTWs old Nov norm was 40.7F, the new one is 41.5F). Its an interesting trend because for one, the dead of winter is just as cold now (avg-wise) as it used to be, and Octobers are actually a bit cooler, so its interesting to see the November uptick in between. But regardless, this has been a colder than normal November by ANY stretch of the imagination or set of normals you can find. Clevelands increase of 2.1F in November (one of the highest Ive seen) means that this November that sits at -5.2F in 2012 would have sat at -3.1F ten years ago. So I find it funny that parallels to 2001 and 2011 have been made in recent days, two of the warmest Novembers on record Actually just 2 years ago we would have still been using the old normals. I didn't realize November "warmed up" that much here, but when I saw the F6 this morning I thought to myself, wow has it really been that cold? Regardless, this week looks coolish and by then the departures will be set in stone; it would take a mega torch to put November into the warm category. After last year's travesty of a winter, I have put aside some extra time and money for any last minute travel arrangements so that I'm guaranteed a blockbuster storm this winter. Basically I'm going to plan my winter vacation around a snowstorm. If it looks like a 2' blizzard is going to hit Denver, I'll fly there beforehand and make a vacation out of it. Massive blizzard in MSP in January? I'm there. Another GHD type storm in Chicago? I'm there. Massive inland nor'easter in Albany? I'm there. I'm no longer going to wait for the big one to hit IMBY. The trick will be figuring out which storm in the US is worth holding out for/occurs partially over a weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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