Chicago WX Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 I don't know about any of you guys but I am really starting to get worried about this winter. I don't think it's going to be last year but I think winter will be milder with below average snowfall. Call me a pessimist but I'm thinking this subforum region won't have much if any snow before Jan 1st. Much if any snow before January 1? It's November 9 man. I'm not saying the next two weeks are anything to get excited about, because it's not...but let's see where we're at by the end of the month, looking forward of course, before making any rash judgements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Much if any snow before January 1? It's November 9 man. I'm not saying the next two weeks are anything to get excited about, because it's not...but let's see where we're at by the end of the month before making any rash judgements. I know but I'm thinking December ****s the bed big time with a torch and nothing but rainstorms Just my gut feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 I know but I'm thinking December ****s the bed big time with a torch and nothing but rainstorms Just my gut feeling Gut feelings FTL. Your sights are set low so anything wintry will be a plus plus I guess. Anyways, let's wait and see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 9, 2012 Author Share Posted November 9, 2012 Ya man. Next couple of weeks look to suck. But thinking this dec won't disappoint. Liking the trends in snowpack building to the great north. It's just trying to get rid of f the unwanted +AO and pacific mild trains that is frustrating ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Ya man. Next couple of weeks look to suck. But thinking this dec won't disappoint. Liking the trends in snowpack building to the great north. It's just trying to get rid of f the unwanted +AO and pacific mild trains that is frustrating ATM. Well it's looking like the latest teleconnection forecasts are seeing the return of a -AO and NAO around thanksgiving so maybe that sets up a colder end of Nov/Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Meanwhile, big winter storm ongoing out west. Blizzard Warnings up for northern Montana...good area from ID to ND, CO and UT to boot, under a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Next Tues looks brutal cold, but very quickly moves out and warms back up. Clouds up again today? yesterday was a keeper with milder temps and sunshine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 NAM would suggest some wet flakes after frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Well it's looking like the latest teleconnection forecasts are seeing the return of a -AO and NAO around thanksgiving so maybe that sets up a colder end of Nov/Dec I saw that, just in time. Bring on the LES!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Well it's looking like the latest teleconnection forecasts are seeing the return of a -AO and NAO around thanksgiving so maybe that sets up a colder end of Nov/Dec Let's see if there's any correlation between November and December "wintriness" over the last 15 years. I'm using the subjective good/ok/bad classification. NOV DEC 2011...BAD, BAD 2010...BAD, BAD/OK 2009...BAD, BAD 2008...GOOD, GOOD 2007...OK, GOOD 2006...BAD, BAD 2005...GOOD, GOOD 2004...BAD, OK 2003...BAD, BAD 2002...GOOD, BAD 2001...BAD, BAD 2000...BAD, GOOD 1999...BAD, BAD 1998...BAD, BAD 1997...GOOD, BAD 10/15 of those winters saw the trend established in November continue into December. So you may be onto something. What's also interesting is that over the last 15 years, I'd only say 2000, 2005 and 2008 were "front-loaded". One caveat is that I think it's too early to put this November into the "BAD" category. Even in years when we had a "GOOD" November, most of the snow was confined to the latter half, even just the final week or 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Let's see if there's any correlation between November and December "wintriness" over the last 15 years. I'm using the subjective good/ok/bad classification. NOV DEC 2011...BAD, BAD 2010...BAD, BAD/OK 2009...BAD, BAD 2008...GOOD, GOOD 2007...OK, GOOD 2006...BAD, BAD 2005...GOOD, GOOD 2004...BAD, OK 2003...BAD, BAD 2002...GOOD, BAD 2001...BAD, BAD 2000...BAD, GOOD 1999...BAD, BAD 1998...BAD, BAD 1997...GOOD, BAD 10/15 of those winters saw the trend established in November continue into December. So you may be onto something. What's also interesting is that over the last 15 years, I'd only say 2000, 2005 and 2008 were "front-loaded". One caveat is that I think it's too early to put this November into the "BAD" category. Even in years when we had a "GOOD" November, most of the snow was confined to the latter half, even just the final week or 10 days. I think you want to see something take hold around the last week of the month, a mild thanksgiving is probably a bad sign. Long range GFS shows this pattern changing around the 22nd, so that might be something to hope is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Let's see if there's any correlation between November and December "wintriness" over the last 15 years. I'm using the subjective good/ok/bad classification. NOV DEC 2011...BAD, BAD 2010...BAD, BAD/OK 2009...BAD, BAD 2008...GOOD, GOOD 2007...OK, GOOD 2006...BAD, BAD 2005...GOOD, GOOD 2004...BAD, OK 2003...BAD, BAD 2002...GOOD, BAD 2001...BAD, BAD 2000...BAD, GOOD 1999...BAD, BAD 1998...BAD, BAD 1997...GOOD, BAD 10/15 of those winters saw the trend established in November continue into December. So you may be onto something. What's also interesting is that over the last 15 years, I'd only say 2000, 2005 and 2008 were "front-loaded". One caveat is that I think it's too early to put this November into the "BAD" category. Even in years when we had a "GOOD" November, most of the snow was confined to the latter half, even just the final week or 10 days. Yeah. I wouldn't be surprised if maybe the last 5 days or so of November we see some snow. HM (not accuweather HM) said he sees a good chance of the AO and NAO turning back negative in about a couple of weeks. Not sure if that helps our snow chances but at least it keeps it cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Monday...partly sunny...hi of 33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Not much life around here...throw this bone out for Saukville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Ya man. Next couple of weeks look to suck. But thinking this dec won't disappoint. Liking the trends in snowpack building to the great north. It's just trying to get rid of f the unwanted +AO and pacific mild trains that is frustrating ATM. ^This. Snowpack is more solid and more expansive then this time last year. --- Can't seem to get rid of the clouds. Occasional couple minute peaks of sun every half hour or so here. Temperature 48°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 ORD coud be close to a record high tomorrow, which is 71 (1949). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Meanwhile, big winter storm ongoing out west. Blizzard Warnings up for northern Montana...good area from ID to ND, CO and UT to boot, under a WSW. Yep...some impressive snowfall amounts too, besides the blizzard conditions. Parts of MT may drop to -10 this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Warm up today - Fail! High 48° with an east wind all day. At least there's the weekend system, otherwise the next 7 days looks really boring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 What's the weather going to be for the Bears/Texans Sunday night? Looks like that high-powered game will be affected by the cold front weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Looks like a decent rain event here Sunday, and then zzzzzzz. Better to get it out of the way now though I guess. We haven't had a decent snow event in Nov for as long as I can remember, and this one looks to be the same. The heaviest snow in Nov around here that I can remember was Thanksgiving night back in the mid 90s. Think we got 3-4". That was the Thanksgiving the Cowboys game was snowed on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 That was a really good storm. It was Thanksgiving 1993. There was 25.3" of snow in Aberdeen South Dakota with that system. I had a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Winnipeg, Manitoba is forecasted to get 10-15" w/strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 What's the weather going to be for the Bears/Texans Sunday night? Looks like that high-powered game will be affected by the cold front weather. I hope the front is rolling through and it is raining like crazy. The Bears have a good running game hidden there and a wet field will make them show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 37yrs ago tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Looks like a decent rain event here Sunday, and then zzzzzzz. Better to get it out of the way now though I guess. We haven't had a decent snow event in Nov for as long as I can remember, and this one looks to be the same. The heaviest snow in Nov around here that I can remember was Thanksgiving night back in the mid 90s. Think we got 3-4". That was the Thanksgiving the Cowboys game was snowed on. The bolded times a thousand. Maybe two thousand. If we were in an active pattern now, people would be lamenting "why cant this storminess wait til Dec/Jan". Such things like "the weather in November the winter will remember" have proven so untrue lately here its not funny. This will be my 18th (wow!) winter measuring snow, and just THREE years have I seen 4"+ in November, and NONE of the winters ended up snowier than normal. On the flip side, my 3 snowiest winters had nothing special in Nov (80.7" in 2004-05, just 0.7" in Nov....78.2" in 2007-08, just 0.7" in Nov....69.4" in 2010-11, just a T in Nov). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 I think you want to see something take hold around the last week of the month, a mild thanksgiving is probably a bad sign. Long range GFS shows this pattern changing around the 22nd, so that might be something to hope is true. Thanksgiving weather means little. Our 2nd warmest Thanksgiving (tied with a few other years) was 60F set in 1981-82 before a brutally cold, snowy winter. One of our colder Thanksgivings, high of just 24F, came in 1936, which is our LEAST snowy winter on record.' An interesting factoid....approximate historical chances of a "White" holiday (meaning 1"+ snow on the ground) at Detroit: Thanksgiving: 15% Christmas: 50% Valentines Day: 75% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Torching here this morning. Good day to open the windows and let in the fresh air. Yesterday's high of 62º was the first 60º+ temp at LAF since October 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Already in the low to mid 70s in central/sw Iowa. Some clouds lingered in eastern Iowa this morning, but now the sun is out and the temp is quickly rising into the 60s. Regarding November weather, I concur with several other posters. Winter weather for at least the last several Novembers has been pretty rare. At least half of recent Novembers have had only a trace of snow. Our best recent winters began in early to mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Up to 59° here, but with clouds and thunderstorms threatening to crash on in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Legit November cumulonimbus moving in. Decent small hail producing cells should stay just south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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