yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If the Nogaps is even west of the gfs probably a good sign that the gfs is too far east (so long as the other models are still west at 0z) 00z NOGAPS went even further west than the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Reliable models up next. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 does the NHC pull the handle on a major given the aircraft recon? 117 kt flight level normally corresponds to 105 kt. But only 91 kt sfmr was found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 That ridging on the euro is key. It acts like a buffer and treats Sandy like a pinball having nowhere to go but NW. A whale farts and creates a weakness...it will find its way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I can't find a huge reason to disagree with the GFS op....it could be just following that small weakness. Other than it came half way back to the 12z solution - the model's got big continuity challenges. The system's potential enormity cannot be underscored enough, and perhaps that grandeur is a bit too much for most to swallow - okay. But it seems we have a counter culture brewing here to latch onto the lesser outcome; perhaps that defense, perhaps that common sense that such a big situation is fraught with reasons to pull back. But unfortunately, none of that offers much logic to preclude the bigger impact. That's philosophy talking. Meteorologically, I can think of reasons why the GFS doesn't make much sense. For one, in each of the frames leading up to it's ENE wide then N parabolic trajectory, are there steering fields available for it to do so; yet the run just displaces Sandy anyway ever more outward. 2ndly, the jet dynamics that really dig on the Euro'esqute solutions has not been present in any of these GFS runs as of late - targeting that disturbance, it won't be into the denser sounding domain until 48 hours from the 00z initialization. Should a stronger impulse such as the Euro sees, get relayed, more digging into the TV combined with blocking resistance in the Atlantic would do the trick. I've mentioned this before regarding that relay and I that's what I'm waiting on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 gfs lol.. snow in wmass? also 5-10" of rain.. that could be the main issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 0z GEM is OTS I think this is yesterday's 0z...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Reliable models up next. Carry on. I love how people are throwing out the GFS( which is a very good model) to the garbage. Everything needs to be considered at this point. And, shocker, it might not be the epic bomb some people want it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I love how people are throwing out the GFS( which is a very good model) to the garbage. Everything needs to be considered at this point. And, shocker, it might not be the epic bomb some people want it to be. if you scroll back you will see the MET's mentioning that it's another possibility to consider, I don't thnk anyone is throwing it out. R. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think this is yesterday's 0z...? Gah, you're right. Canadian site tricked me, the loop switched over from tonight's run to last night's halfway through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I love how people are throwing out the GFS( which is a very good model) to the garbage. Everything needs to be considered at this point. And, shocker, it might not be the epic bomb some people want it to be. The model's been shifting it's track all over the place - the suspicion is warranted. Continuity, meaning, consistency from run to run, is highly correlated to accuracy - that's why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think this is yesterday's 0z...? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Very low 500mb heights move in from the southwest after day 6 on the GFS with continued wraparound moisture. The precip type chart is going to look pretty freakish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Seems like the Euro finds the weakness in the subtropical jet to the south of the block. Just a touch more ridging and it's slamming into the northeast. It's possible, but I'd say generally unlikely. It really doesn't seem to feel the tug from the trough to the northwest, at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Stewarts pulls the trigger on the cat 2 from the last VDM HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1230 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 ...SANDY RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS SOUTHWEST OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1230 AM EDT...0430 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 76.1W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE HURRICANE SANDY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 110 MPH...175 KM/H. THIS MAKE SANDY A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... AND SANDY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The model's been shifting it's track all over the place - the suspicion is warranted. Continuity, meaning, consistency from run to run, is highly correlated to accuracy - that's why Yeah nobody saying it is 100% correct, but who am I to say it should be 10 decameters stronger with ridging near Bermuda..lol. Nobody can, so all I mean is that despite the normal GFS biases it has...I wouldn't toss this run per se. Just put it in the caldron of model solutions and stir it around. 5+ days out so I think we have no real right to say what model is right or wrong..other than criticize why it's giving us this solution and speculate whether or not it is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The model's been shifting it's track all over the place - the suspicion is warranted. Continuity, meaning, consistency from run to run, is highly correlated to accuracy - that's why So that would literally eliminate every global model besides the Euro, using that logic. I agree that the GFS inconsistencies call for suspicion, but it's all result dependent and if the GFS showed a sub 950 bomb at the benchmark then everyone would be singing its praises. I'm calling it like I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah nobody saying it is 100% correct, but who am I to say it should be 10 decameters stronger with ridging near Bermuda..lol. Nobody can, so all I mean is that despite the normal GFS biases it has...I wouldn't toss this run per se. Just put it in the caldron of model solutions and stir it around. 5+ days out so I think we have no real right to say what model is right or wrong..other than criticize why it's giving us this solution and speculate whether or not it is correct. 100% agreed. It's insane to throw out a model run 5 days out from an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah nobody saying it is 100% correct, but who am I to say it should be 10 decameters stronger with ridging near Bermuda..lol. Nobody can, so all I mean is that despite the normal GFS biases it has...I wouldn't toss this run per se. Just put it in the caldron of model solutions and stir it around. 5+ days out so I think we have no real right to say what model is right or wrong..other than criticize why it's giving us this solution and speculate whether or not it is correct. It's not a bad idea to do that, actually ...throw it all in the blender and pour a nice glass of mean - I think that still tastes pretty good to the Kevin-heads out there. haha. ah hell. I dunno. I'm crashin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 100% agreed. It's insane to throw out a model run 5 days out from an event. I disagree. This run is cannot be trusted because of continuity issues and also because of the Meteorological reasons, both for operational and conceptional reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The GGEM has a 937 low south of cape cod retrograding west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I love how people are throwing out the GFS( which is a very good model) to the garbage. Everything needs to be considered at this point. And, shocker, it might not be the epic bomb some people want it to be. Are you making a statement about the GFS, or just attempting to read into something you probably have no idea about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah nobody saying it is 100% correct, but who am I to say it should be 10 decameters stronger with ridging near Bermuda..lol. Nobody can, so all I mean is that despite the normal GFS biases it has...I wouldn't toss this run per se. Just put it in the caldron of model solutions and stir it around. 5+ days out so I think we have no real right to say what model is right or wrong..other than criticize why it's giving us this solution and speculate whether or not it is correct. is it really 5 days out? don't all the player have to be on the table before that? just wondering, I would think by 48-72 hrs we should really know what is going on, just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's not a bad idea to do that, actually ...throw it all in the blender and pour a nice glass of mean - I think that still tastes pretty good to the Kevin-heads out there. haha. ah hell. I dunno. I'm crashin'. I know what you mean though. It has its biases, but I guess I look at it from a point where we have such a crazy pattern going on, that 5+ days out and another run closer to the actual event start time...if it doesn't have a huge glaring issue with the solution..I can't really toss it. I can have my own suspicions about it and maybe disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GGEM wow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS does does retrograde the block faster over eastern Canada faster than 18z. This is important becuase it stretches the sorm E-W creating a much deeper stronger easterly flow on the northern side, hence Nogaps is showing the doomsday solution again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 is it really 5 days out? don't all the player have to be on the table before that? just wondering, I would think by 48-72 hrs we should really know what is going on, just wondering. Maybe more like 6 days. I think by Friday morning we'll know..and even 12z guidance tomorrow may sort of hone in on a range of solutions...better than today's range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So that would literally eliminate every global model besides the Euro, using that logic. I agree that the GFS inconsistencies call for suspicion, but it's all result dependent and if the GFS showed a sub 950 bomb at the benchmark then everyone would be singing its praises. I'm calling it like I see it. No, it wouldn't. We need to understand the logic of the probability spectrum, and that continuity issues puts bad consistency closer to the less likely end of the spectrum - that is especially true when the runs with the better continuity fit better with larger scale parametrics. As far as the 950 mb stuff, some are guided by emotion and that biases their determinism - shame on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 UKMET decides to hop on the GGEM train tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.