Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Jet is setting up http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M There is a study papered about that jet being present when hurricanes impact the upper MA to NE regions prior - that's good if your a storm monger, bad if you're worried about whether to take your boat out of a harbor - to mentiong, keeping your flapping roof on your home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Eastern used to do radio shows - can't think of a better scenario warranting one of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not sure if this was posted earlier,but here's the CMC run..right over Cape Cod,notice the pressure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm not sure it's that so much as the guidance insisting on maintaining a strongly warm core system even during baroclinic interaction. Although, yes, as you mentioned it's quite possible the storm does try to resist at least absorption initially. That's true. That's probably more likely their thinking. In any case, I think it's become more likely that this does not become an hybrid extratropical beast necessarily ... and is mostly just a tropical beast instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What will TWC do? Change the name from Sandy to whatever the first winter storm name is once it turns into a cold core system? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not sure if this was posted earlier,but here's the CMC run..right over Cape Cod,notice the pressure! Thats the 12z GEM.. 0z will be out in about an an hr or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not sure if this was posted earlier,but here's the CMC run..right over Cape Cod,notice the pressure! That's this afternoon's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Through 66H GFS looks better than 18z I think. Downstream ridging immediately NE of storm looks a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This run should correct west a bit anyways looking early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What will TWC do? Change the name from Sandy to whatever the first winter storm name is once it turns into a cold core system? lol Previously discussed,Santhena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Through 66H GFS looks better than 18z I think. Downstream ridging immediately NE of storm looks a bit stronger. Second s/w looks more pronounced than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The trough looks a bit deeper than 12z as well, but Sandy is positioned ever so slightly SE of the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This run should correct west a bit anyways looking early on. Looks like it is slightly starting at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Through 66H GFS looks better than 18z I think. Downstream ridging immediately NE of storm looks a bit stronger. This run should correct west a bit anyways looking early on. Lock it up, this have special launches in it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Lock it up, this have special launches in it? Only from the SE I believe rest of offices start tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Previously discussed,Santhena This system transcends their intentions unfortunately... It's not a winter storm, but it's so anomalous that it carries some winter fare with it for those that get into that. And, it's autumn, not winter - so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Better ridge to NE, slightly better S/W to the west of Sandy, and still wants to go NE. We'll see if it turns around shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Through hr69, higher heights in the NE, deeper trough in the central Plains, and Sandy is slightly west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sandy is finding the break in the ridge left from the tail of the NATL low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Better ridge to NE, slightly better S/W to the west of Sandy, and still wants to go NE. We'll see if it turns around shortly. Yup... looked better but it still misses. OTS I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Out to 96hr...doesn't look like it will come back west in time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 At hr84, Sandy is definitely deeper and tighter (wow that sounds dirty) than the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Better ridge to NE, slightly better S/W to the west of Sandy, and still wants to go NE. We'll see if it turns around shortly. there's some short wave ridging ahead of the 96 hour TV s/w that pushing it ENE at that interval Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Im thinking ME or NS hit. Edit: Maybe not. Edit #2: Maybe so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Both the ridge and s/w looked better, but Sandy moving NE at a low latitude is hurting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 there's some short wave ridging ahead of the 96 hour TV s/w that pushing it ENE at that interval Just continuing on my line of thinking, the interaction of the two strong cyclonic PV anomalies creates an area of divergence between them creating anticyclonic PV ... which may be the stronger anticyclonic PV and s/w ridging we are seeing develop upstream of Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The trough over the CONUS was definitely stronger, but Sandy initially finding the weakness pretty quickly did this run in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sandy may pull a 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Comparing the differences starting around 72 hours from the 00z op GFS at 500mb to the 84 hour 12z op Euro you can see a totally different evolution in the N Atlantic. The Euro immediately wants to go omega block with ridging staying strong on backside of big N Atl low and forcing Sandy to cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's entirely possible that what ultimately results is a partial capture resulting in Sandy careening NW, then, the pressure field fills a little before dropping again when the cold core closes off and causes a new purely baroclinic low to develop - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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